As we move into the semi-final week of most fantasy football league playoffs, It is definitely now time to make sure that your lineups are solid and that you are going with the players that have brought you to the dance and to also make sure that you are not tempted to look at some players who might have caught your eye due to recent performances. Remember, the playoffs are not the time to take risks, but to make sure that you put your best team forward and match up the right players. This week’s 4-Eyed preview looks at a couple guys that you might be interested to look at for your roster but starting them will probably make for a white knuckled Sunday. However, the NFL is often called a “league of attrition” and if you are looking at your rosters and see an abundance of the dreaded red “O”, “D” or “Q”, then you might have to take that chance and if so, here are a couple players that you could look into for a positive return.
Nick Foles – Quarterback – Philadelphia Eagles
With Carson Wentz likely out for the rest of season Nick Foles steps into the starting QB position for the second year in a row. We all know how that ended last year, however, when Foles stepped into that spot last season, the Eagles were 11-2 and cruising towards the playoffs. This year is a little different, as the Eagles head into their game this Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams their record is a disappointing 6-7 with them only clinging to playoff hopes because the bottom of the NFC playoff bracket has been weak. Foles started the first two games of this season, going 1-1 throwing for 451 total yards and 1 touchdown. This week he faces a Los Angeles Rams defense who has given up the 16th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this season at 17.5. In total the Rams have given up an average of 345 yards per game, ranking them 14th in the NFL. If this was the beginning or middle of the regular season on the fantasy football calendar, I would advise to potentially pick up Foles as your backup and start him based on matchups. However, as we are now well into the fantasy playoffs, it would be a very big reach to consider starting Foles, particularly if your team is in the playoffs, as you most likely have a starter or two that you have been riding for all or most of the season. However, if you are someone who partakes in the daily fantasy
Derrick Henry – Running back – Tennessee Titans
If you listened to this week’s Fantasy in Frames podcast, I mentioned Derrick Henry and the fact that while he had an unbelievable all-time great game last week against Jacksonville, it is not very wise to let yourself get seduced by that and do something crazy like start him on your fantasy roster this week. Looking at Henry’s average points per game this season, if you take out last week’s performance, Henry is averaging just 7.6 points per game. The Titans have the 11th best rushing attack in the NFL, but that is through a combination of a running back duo of Henry and Dion Lewis, as well as QB Marcus Mariota being a mobile QB, who averages 28 yards a game himself. Henry is currently owned in 79% of the ESPN Fantasy football leagues, a number that I will assume rocketed up after the Jacksonville game, however, if you are one of the lucky ones that remain in your fantasy playoffs, it would be a real stretch to start Henry this week. The Titans are playing the New York Giants on Sunday, and while the Giants are averaging 26.2 points per game to opposing teams running backs, this number will be split between Henry, Lewis and Mariota. I do believe Henry will be the highest point getter of the three, my prediction of 10-12 points this week, makes Henry a risky, low end flex option at best.
Curtis Samuel – Wide Receiver – Carolina Panthers
While the Carolina Panthers as a team have fallen apart, one positive in their current losing streak has been the play of wide receiver Curtis Samuel, who has suddenly turned into a reliable target for QB Cam Newton. With the lack of production coming from fellow WR Devin Funchess, Samuel has joined the group along with WR DJ Moore, RB Christian McCaffery and TE Ian Thomas as one of Newtons primary targets. In the last two games, Samuel has been targeted 19 time, with 10 receptions for 168 yards and he has four touchdowns so far this season. He has scored double digit fantasy points in five of his last six games. The Panthers play the Saints this week and New Orleans has been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in the league in total passing yards given up and dead last in total points allowed to opposing teams wide receivers. The metrics show that Samuel is not going to get many yards after the catch, but his 12.6 yards per catch this season tells you that he hunts for the first down and catches the ball 66% of the time that it is thrown to him. Samuel projects out to be a flex option or a third WR option if your league allows for that extra spot.
Alec Ogletree – Linebacker – New York Giants
You want to see something amazing stat for a linebacker, go and look up the league leaders in interceptions, within the top six (ties included) there are five cornerbacks, five safeties and right there tied for fourth is linebacker Alec Ogletree. This season, it seems that Ogletree is on a mission to seek out every pass that is thrown within his general vicinity. He has snagged five interceptions, returning two of them for touchdowns, which itself ties him for the league lead. Combined with 86 tackles, Ogletree is one of the most complete linebackers in the NFL and his almost 10 points per game average makes him a must start for anyone in an IDP league.
*Don’t forget to go back and read over our previous IN SEASON ARTICLES. You might find some nuggets of fantasy football gold that could propel you through the fantasy playoffs and even help you win a fantasy football championship!*
Continue to follow us at fantasyinframes.com and for any questions that you have leading up to this week’s matchups, hit me up on twitter @KenSonnenberg.