2024 Sleeper ADP vs. FantasyPros ECR: Finding Fantasy Value
Understanding the average draft position and how to take advantage of it is the key to winning your draft. Each platform can produce wildly significant variations in rankings, allowing us the opportunity to exploit these discrepancies and help us start the season on the right footing.
Going into my leagues each year, I try to pinpoint players whose ranking is substantially higher or lower than consensus. With that in mind, here are five undervalued and overvalued players on Sleeper, compared to FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) in full-PPR scoring. Let’s hope my league mates don’t find this article before our draft.
Undervalued
1. Kyler Murray
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 57 (QB7)
Sleeper: Pick 80 (QB9)
Another year removed from his season-ending injury in 2022, Kyler Murray looks to be in a great position to succeed this coming season. The dual-threat quarterback demonstrated his efficiency on the ground last year immediately upon his return from injury, rushing for around 30 yards per game. This should only increase now his injury is fully behind him. His passing statistics should also take a healthy jump with the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr., who, together with Trey McBride, should provide Murray with plenty of firepower. Murray is an extraordinary value on Sleeper at present and one of my main quarterback targets.
2. Jaylen Waddle
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 21 (WR13)
Sleeper: Pick 36 (WR18)
Waddle, admittedly, was a slight disappointment for fantasy managers last year, failing to live up to his sky-high ADP. As the clear second option on the Dolphins, Waddle finished with 1,014 yards and four touchdowns from his 72 receptions and 104 targets. Yet his underlying figures suggest he could be in for a bounce-back year in 2024. Last year, Waddle finished joint-sixth in yards per route run among receivers, with at least 25 targets per PFF. His 2.63 yards per route run was the highest mark of his career. With a difference of 15 picks on Sleeper versus Consensus, Waddle is a clear target for me in the late second to third round.
3. Michael Pittman Jr.
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 23 (WR14)
Sleeper: Pick 40 (WR21)
Pittman enjoyed a career year in 2023, finishing with 156 targets, resulting in 109 receptions for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns. This all came despite rookie Anthony Richardson missing most of the season with an injury. Head coach Shane Steichen demonstrated his play-calling prowess with backup Garnder Minshew under center, and Pittman was the primary beneficiary. With Richardson returning to action and Pittman as the clear top option in Indianapolis, the receiver presents fantasy managers with a high floor and plenty of upsides should Richardson hit the heights we hope he can. With Pittman going over a round after consensus rankings, he looks to be a fantastic value on Sleeper.
4. Jayden Daniels
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 75 (QB11)
Sleeper: Pick 115 (QB14)
The second-overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, Jayden Daniels, was unsurprisingly named the Commanders starter recently, and the dual-threat quarterback should immediately be able to provide fantasy value. Daniels threw for over 3,800 yards and 40 touchdowns last year, adding a further 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. This rushing will provide fantasy managers with a solid floor, and the 2023 Heisman winner currently ranks behind the likes of Goff and Tua Tagovailoa on Sleeper. I expect this ADP to rise the closer we get to the start of the season, but there remains quite a jump to get to consensus ranks. Daniels is an exceptional value at the moment.
5. Diontae Johnson
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 66 (WR34)
Sleeper: Pick 95 (WR43)
A couple of months ago, I wrote about newly acquired Diontae Johnson being a good dynasty target, given his likely target share in the Panthers offense. All the noises from training camp suggest he is becoming the go-to receiver for Bryce Young. With limited weapons outside of Johnson, the former Steeler should provide fantasy managers with a high PPR floor. I would expect Johnson to lead the Panthers in targets comfortably, and their 5.5 over/under win total betting line this season suggests a significant number of opportunities in negative game scripts. Johnson looked to be an excellent value going into drafts this summer, on Sleeper he looks even better.
Overvalued
1. CJ Stroud
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 52 (QB6)
Sleeper: Pick 42 (QB5)
Stroud’s extraordinary rookie campaign propelled many (including myself) to fantasy championships last year. As much as I want to ride that wave again, his value, particularly on Sleeper, looks steep. Stroud finished as a top-5 QB in only two games last season and also provided little production on the ground, only rushing for more than 20 yards once last year. Consensus rankings have just a five-pick difference between Stroud and Murray, compared to around 40 picks for Sleeper. It may prove shrewd to wait for better values or pay up for the top-tier quarterbacks a little earlier.
2. Josh Jacobs
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 46 (RB15)
Sleeper: Pick 27 (RB11)
According to PFF, Josh Jacobs suffered a down year in 2023, hitting his fewest yards per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt. There are plenty of reasons to be excited about Josh Jacobs this coming season in an improved environment compared to previous years. Jacobs should benefit from working behind a better offensive line, yet LeFleur has regularly utilized multiple running backs in his system. At the cost on Sleeper, I’m targeting Achane and Pacheco, who are picks 25 and 28, respectively, or waiting for Cook, Kamara, or Walker a round later.
3. Stefon Diggs
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 42 (WR24)
Sleeper: Pick 32 (WR16)
Diggs’ production fell dramatically over the second half of the 2023 season. Over the last seven games of the fantasy season, the veteran failed to hit 35 receiving yards in five games. This came despite the veteran still seeing around eight targets per game. While the move to Houston may revitalize him, there is no guarantee he will return to his previous heights, given the improvement of Nico Collins. Collins finished second behind only Tyreek Hill in yards per route run last season amongst receivers with at least 25 targets, per PFF. On Sleeper, Diggs ranks just one spot behind Collins despite a 16-pick difference on FantasyPros. Diggs looks to be a very risky pick in the middle of the third round.
4. Kyle Pitts
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 79 (TE7)
Sleeper: Pick 55 (TE7)
Sigh, are we really doing this again? We enter year four of the Kyle Pitts experiment after another disappointing campaign in which he turned his 90 targets into 53 receptions for 667 yards and three touchdowns. A new-look offense with the arrival of Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator from the Rams are certainly positives for Pitts. Still, his price on Sleeper is too aggressive for me, going only a handful of picks after McBride, Andrews, and Kincaid despite a huge gap in consensus rankings. It would not be surprising to see a much improved Kyle Pitts this year, but I would much rather pivot to Njoku or Ferguson later in the draft, given the opportunity cost.
5. Nick Chubb
FantasyPros ECR: Pick 127 (RB39)
Sleeper: Pick 87 (RB27)
Nick Chubb’s average draft position on Sleeper is pretty confounding. The veteran suffered a season-ending knee injury in week two last year and has had two surgeries. At the time of writing, he remains on the PUP list, and the date of his return remains to be seen. Even when he does return to action, we cannot guarantee he will see a similar workload to usual, and he is unlikely to be as he enters his seventh season in the NFL at age 28. On Sleeper he is being drafted as a high-end RB3, ahead of running backs such as Jaylen Warren, Brian Robinson and Javonte Williams, as well as wide receivers such as Diontae Johnson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.