Every year, there seem to be a couple of wide receivers with low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 upsides when drafted in the 5th round, and this year is no different.
For 2024, I believe that one of those players will be 2024 Redraft Target Tee Higgins. Rather you like to invest in running back early in the draft and want to be able to wait on your WR2, or you want to load up on WR and have Higgins as your WR3 or WR4, there’s not a single draft strategy that Higgins doesn’t fit in this year (unless you choose to draft Ja’Marr Chase in the first round).
I have to believe that his underwhelming 2023 season is what led to him being such a great draft value this year. Due to injuries to himself and his star QB, Higgins and Joe Burrow only ended up playing in 7 games together last season. In 12 games last season, 5 of which were with backup QB Jake Browning, Higgins put up:
- 42 receptions on 76 targets
- 656 receiving yards
- 5 TDs
- WR41 (Full-PPR PPG)
All of which were career lows. Unless you’re banking on either Higgins or Burrow to get injured again this season, I don’t see any world where he doesn’t outperform his current average draft position.
Tee Higgins comes into the 2024 season expected to be the second option in the Cincinnati Bengals passing offense behind teammate Ja’Marr Chase. It’s worth noting that Chase is also, currently, not participating in practice due to a contract dispute. While I don’t expect that to continue into the regular season, there’s still a possibility that Chase isn’t on the field to start the year, which would raise both the floor and ceiling for Higgins early on. Higgins was franchise-tagged by the Bengals this offseason, giving him all the motivation he should need to put in a big season and earn the contract he deserves. Former teammates Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon are also no longer present, leaving an even shorter list of offensive weapons with which Burrow has chemistry.
I think the most obvious reason for optimism with Higgins is something that’s already been pointed out: he’s a top-two option in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL whenever everyone’s healthy. The last time Joe Burrow played an entire year, he was 5th in the NFL in passing attempts, and the targets in this offense are pretty consolidated. According to Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan on X), whenever both Chase and Higgins ran a route on the same play last season, Chase had a 27% target share, and Higgins had a 23% target share. With Tyler Boyd out of the picture, I expect these percentages to be very similar in 2024.
If you look at the last two healthy seasons that Burrow and Higgins played together, Higgins finished as the WR12 in 2022 and the WR13 in 2021 in full-PPR fantasy points per game. This showcases the low-end WR1 upside I spoke to at the beginning of my article and makes Higgins such an easy click for me at his average draft position.
It’s not just the offense that he plays in that’s good, either. Higgins is a strong NFL WR in his own right. Among WRs who ran at least 250 routes in 2022, Higgins was 23rd in yards per route run and 10th in yards per target, which helps compare him against players on different teams with different overall pass rate numbers.
The first concern that’s going to enter a drafter’s mind whenever they see Tee Higgins still on the board and their draft pick approaching is the most difficult thing to predict, injury. It’s fresh on everyone’s mind after only playing 12 games last season. However, it’s important to remember that before last season, he had played in at least 14 games every year and played in 16+ games in 2 of his first three seasons in the NFL. Just because someone gets injured doesn’t mean they’re injury-prone, and it’s banking on injury is a bad bet to make in your fantasy football draft.
Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar on X) also presented a strong argument against Higgins, showing that he’s finished as a WR3 on a weekly basis in almost 60% of his games. There is definitely some volatility to his fantasy value on a weekly basis, having to play alongside one of the top WRs in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase. Still, it’s my opinion that his average draft position being as low as it is already baked in this variable.
According to FantasyPros full-PPR ADP, Tee Higgins is the 60th player off the board, going as the WR27. If you compare that to my rankings, which can be found at www.fantasyinframes.com, I have Higgins as WR20, and the 37th overall player. This is what makes him such a redraft target for me. While I would be comfortable taking Higgins in the 3rd round, you can instead spend your 3rd round pick on another draft target that you like and look for Higgins at the back of the 4th round or the beginning of the 5th round.
Last season, Tee Higgins was being drafted as the WR14, which made a ton of sense. He was coming off of back-to-back seasons, finishing as a top 13 WR in full-PPR fantasy points per game. After one unfortunate year of injuries, his ADP has dropped almost three full rounds while his situation has remained the same. It might have even possibly improved, with the offense losing a couple of familiar faces. Few WRs offer that upside in the 5th round that Higgins brings to the table, which makes him an easy pick at ADP for me in 2024.
If you found this article helpful, I’d appreciate it if you could check out the rest of my work, which can be found at www.fantasyinframes.com and on Twitter—@Drew3MR. My full redraft rankings can also be found on the Fantasy In Frames website, and I’m part of the Expert Consensus Rankings on FantasyPros as well. Best of luck to everyone as the 2024 draft season comes to a close!
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