2024 Redraft Target: Kyler Murray
NFL fans have spent so much time making jokes about 2024 Redraft Target: Kyler Murray playing video games; it appears many people have forgotten just how strong of an asset he can be to your fantasy football team. With even more time removed from injury and an upgrade in the weapons surrounding him, Murray is one of my easiest redraft targets this draft season.
With eight full games in 2023 under his belt and another entire offseason where he stayed healthy, Kyler Murray is ready to roll in 2024. Not only is Kyler healthy, but the offense around him also got a facelift. Starting running back James Conner appears to be healthy, and they added Trey Benson to the backfield with the 66th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Speaking of the NFL Draft, rookie phenom Marvin Harrison Jr. will now also be catching passes from Kyler after the Cardinals took him with the 5th overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Cardinals also signed free agent WR Zay Jones. However, he will miss the season’s first five games due to a suspension.
Along with these additions, tight end Trey McBride and WR Greg Dortch will also have an opportunity to make an impact this season, giving Kyler arguably the most complete offense he’s had since being drafted 1st overall by Arizona back in 2019.
Remember when I said this is possibly the best offense that Kyler has ever played in? Yeah, that’s definitely one of the reasons why I’m optimistic for Kyler this season. If you believe the Marvin Harrison Jr. hype (I do), and you factor in the Trey McBride breakout that we saw play out alongside Kyler last season, it’s really hard not to get excited about what Kyler could do as a passer this season.
That’s without even discussing what really makes him a fantasy cheat code, which is his rushing ability. It makes sense why his rushing totals would have taken a hit over the last two years, since Kyler tore his ACL in 2022 and spent part of 2023 still recovering, but with another offseason to get back to full strength, I expect to see his rushing numbers come back up. He had at least 88 rushing attempts each of his first three seasons, and at least 400 rushing yards each of his first four seasons. He also had 11 rushing TDs in 2020, and 5 rushing TDs in 2021.
This rushing ability raises both his floor and ceiling outcomes as a fantasy QB, which led to him still being the QB10 in fantasy points per game last season despite only playing eight games. He was the QB7 in 2022 before tearing his ACL, but his first three seasons in the NFL, where he was fully healthy, showed his true upside. Kyler finished as the QB3 in 2021, QB5 in 2020, and QB12 in fantasy points per game as a rookie. If his rushing ability returns to form in 2024, it’s very easy to get excited about Kyler as a fantasy QB.
We already discussed the most obvious one, Kyler’s injury history. He tore his ACL in 2022 and spent the first half of 2023 recovering, so it’s been some time since fantasy managers have seen him play a full season. However, I will continue to believe that trying to predict injury or drafting with the assumption that certain players will get injured is the wrong way to play fantasy football.
The one concern I have is that he wasn’t a great passer whenever he did return last season. Among QBs that had at least 100 passing attempts between weeks 10-18 last season, Kyler was 23rd in adjusted completion percentage, which takes out plays that include things like drops, spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and being hit while throwing. He was also 19th in catchable throw percentage. I believe that a lot of this can be written off as rust while trying to return from injury last season. Still, the worst-case scenario for Kyler as a fantasy QB this season is that he continues to struggle as a passer, and his rushing numbers don’t come back to the level that we expect.
Despite being one of the hyped-up fantasy players of late, he’s still somehow undervalued. According to FantasyPros’ average draft position across five different draft platforms, Kyler is being drafted as the QB8. I’ve got Kyler as my QB6, however I will say that where you should draft could slightly change based on your leagues scoring settings as well. If your league only rewards 4 points per passing TD, this makes rushing QBs like Kyler more valuable. If your league gives 6 points per passing TD, this will help level things out between rushing QBs and pocket passers that typically have higher passing TD totals but don’t offer as much production on the ground.
According to the current ADP, Kyler is going after C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow. In 4-point passing TD leagues, I think this would be a mistake. Kyler just offers to much as a runner, and I believe his passing numbers will improve with more time to recover from his injury. However, if your league does reward 6 points per passing TD, I think it would be fair to consider drafting Stroud over Kyler, though I’m still drafting Kyler over both Stroud and Burrow in that situation. If Kyler is still on the board in the 5th or 6th round of my fantasy drafts, he’s my target every single time.
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It’s always a gamble to buy the dip on a player dealing with an injury during the draft season, but that’s not what we’re doing here. We’re buying the dip on a player who was injured two years ago and has now had plenty of time to recover. If you believe that the rushing ability returns this year, and you’re a part of the Marvin Harrison Jr. hype train like I am, I’m not sure how you could skip out on 2024 Redraft Target Kyler Murray at his value in drafts this year.
If you found this article helpful, I’d appreciate it if you could check out the rest of my work, which can be found at www.fantasyinframes.com and on Twitter—@Drew3MR. My full redraft rankings can also be found on the Fantasy In Frames website, and I’m part of the Expert Consensus Rankings on FantasyPros as well. Best of luck to everyone as the 2024 draft season comes to a close!
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