What’s up y’all!? I’m Colby Conway, and I have been writing/creating fantasy sports content since 2014 and the fact that I’m a Houston Texans fan is the worst-kept secret in the entire fantasy industry. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that we will look at Houston Texans RB and 2024 Redraft Target Joe Mixon and break down why he just might be one of the most mispriced players in all fantasy football.
In 2023, Mixon played in every game for the first time in his career, totaling 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground while adding 52 receptions on 64 targets for 376 yards and three scores through the air. He eclipsed 1,400+ yards from scrimmage for the fourth time in his career, and he’s handled 200+ carries in three of the last four seasons. Overall, he ended the year as the RB6 in PPR formats and was one of 14 running backs to average at least 15 fantasy points per game.
Mixon was traded from the Bengals to the Houston Texans in the offseason and signed a 3-year deal with the Texans worth over $25M. He’s locked into a bell-cow role for an upstart Houston offense that figures to be frequent flyers to the red zone. Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and the running back spot has proven to be quite valuable in this offensive scheme. Mixon gets an offensive upgrade, albeit maybe just ever so slightly, by coming to Houston, and the most significant upgrade for him comes from the offensive line.
Volume is king in fantasy football, and Mixon will get a ton of it. Look at the running back room in Houston through the preseason. Dameon Pierce’s struggles have continued in this offensive scheme, opening the door for the RB2 on this team to be the struggling Pierce, Cam “multiple Achilles tears” Akers, Dare “Emergency Kicker” Ogunbawale, or sixth-round rookie Jawhar Jordan. Mixon has virtually no competition for touches in this backfield.
Look at the Texans last year. Despite struggles on the ground, Slowik is committed to the running game. Take a look at the 2023 season, as Dameon Pierce opened the year with seven straight games with double-digit carries, despite surpassing 3.5 YPC in just one of those contests. As the torch was passed to Devin Singletary as the year went on, Singletary saw double-digit carries in six of the final nine regular season games, including four games with 20+ carries. C.J. Stroud and his trio of receivers are garnering a lot of attention heading into 2024, but don’t overlook Mixon, as his ability to handle a full workload will be on display, and again, he has no considerable threat to his workload.
Speaking of volume for Mixon, he’ll be the lead red zone back for a Houston squad that many expect to score a bunch of points this season. The Texans logged 70 pass attempts in the red zone last season, while Pierce and Singletary combined for 54 carries, which would have been the fourth-most by a player (if combined) last season. Mixon handled 56 carries and 77.8% of the team’s red zone carries, and there’s no reason to believe he doesn’t handle a similar share this season, if not even higher.
The Texans didn’t target the running back position a ton last season, but Singletary and Pierce still combined for 55 targets. Mixon has averaged 62.3 targets per game over the last three seasons, so his workload through the air should remain similar, keeping his fantasy floor relatively elevated.
There’s no such thing as a perfect player in fantasy football, as everyone has risks or threats to production, and Mixon is no different. When it comes to selecting Mixon in your drafts, he’s not the most exciting or flashiest pick, nor will selecting Mixon often elicit an over-the-top reaction from your league mates. Per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, his 3.1 percent explosive run rate was on par with Alvin Kamara (3.3%) from last season, and amongst running backs with at least 100 carries, Mixon ranked 36th out of 49 in this category. Additionally, his 2.43 yards after contact per attempt ranked 37th out of 49.
Additionally, Mixon hasn’t been the most efficient runner in recent seasons on zone concept runs. He was solid in that department in 2021, but less effective the past couple of seasons. Per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, the Texans ran a zone concept scheme on 45.9 percent of their rushing attempts last season (17th-most) and a man/gap concept on 39.6 percent (13th-most). Let’s look at how Mixon fared over the last three seasons based on run concept.
At the time of writing, Mixon is going off the board as the RB15 in PPR formats, per FantasyPros ADP data, and while I understand he isn’t the flashiest or most exciting pick, Mixon is a back-end RB1 for fantasy football in 2024. As the bell cow back for one of the more explosive offenses in football, Mixon is in a prime position for 1,300+ total yards and double-digit touchdowns. Mixon’s best year as a professional came in 2021, and the stars are aligning for another year like that (1,519 total yards and 16 total touchdowns).
Mixon is an RB1 priced as an RB2 in redraft, making him one of the better targets at the running back position outside of the top 10. There’s a clear path to an RB1 finish this year, and a very real chance he’s closer to the overall RB6 than his ADP of RB16. His sheer volume of work will make up for his per-touch inefficiencies, and acting as the clear-cut lead back for one of the more explosive offenses in football could be a fantasy goldmine in 2024.
Thanks for reading my profile on 2024 Redraft Target: Joe Mixon. For more great research and work on Redraft Targets for this fantasy football season, visit us here today! You can follow me and my work on X @ColbyRConway. Until next time!
