2024 IDP Dynasty Target: Montez Sweat
Player Overview
Montez Sweat, a former first-round pick by Washington, got traded to the Chicago Bears in a move that caused confusion and derision. On the one hand, he and Chase Young were expected to be traded. However, a trailing 2-6 Chicago team seemed an unlikely candidate. Playing under the fifth-year option for the Commanders, Sweat became the de facto defense leader and gave a personal vibe to a struggling Bears defense. The upgrade got “the Tez effect” moniker by defense-minded head coach Matt Eberflus, and the general manager Ryan Poles called the newly acquired player “a multiplier.” Montez Sweat finished 2023. with a hefty long-term deal, 12.5 sacks, and an all-around career year.
This success is also mirrored in his fantasy production. Sweat was perceived as not playing to his true potential because of his lofty draft spot and college pedigree, as well as a formidable (on paper, to be completely honest) environment and teammates in Washington. After taking 723 defensive snaps for Commanders and Bears, Montez Sweat finished the year with 57 tackles, 38 solo, and 14 being TFLs. “Tez” added 12.5 tackles and 25 QB hits and was the tackle leader for two NFL franchises, which is a nice bit of trivia you can use as a quizmaster in due time. Sweat also managed three forced fumbles and four passes defended. This accounted for a strong fantasy year, with Sweat finishing as a top 15 or even top 10 defensive linemen, depending on the scoring.
Player Situation
Even though Montez got credited for turning around the fortunes of the defense of the Windy City, the changes were implemented by Ebeflus much earlier, after an abysmal 0-4 start to the season, and Sweat was acquired as the proverbial ‘rug that ties the room together.’ Since week 5, Chicago boasted one of the best defenses in the league, and this change was cemented with the arrival of the ex-Washington Commander and present-day locker room Commander Sweat. This means we can expect more of the same in 2024, with “Tez” proving to be the linchpin of Eberflus’ scheme. It’s more of the same means that we have a boom-and-bust edge rusher on our hands with an incredibly low floor due to his tackling numbers.
As for the Mississippi State product being a catalyst for the whole defensive side, the players standing to most benefit from him strengthening the trenches are secondary defenders like Jaylon Johnson and Jaquon Brisker and whoever ends up being on the other side of Sweat as Yannick Ngakoue failed to make his chances count, as well as having the bad luck of finishing the year on injured reserve.
Fantasy Production
Regarding the ceiling, Montez had eight games over 13 fantasy points, seven being over 15 and three over 20. With two of his games hovering around ten fantasy points and averaging 4.6 points in the remaining seven games, you might end up disappointed if you jumped the gun on Sweat. Ryan Poles making all the right moves in free agency brings hope that Chicago will continue to be clever in the draft and surround their bona fide defensive leader with rushing talent, as the biggest detriment to his continued fantasy success is teams double-teaming him as the lone D-Line threat.
Dynasty Value
In my eyes, Sweat is at the turning point of his career at a place where he may truly break out in season 2024. He is finally becoming an elite pass rusher, but only if the Bears surround him with several impact players via free agency or by drafting young talent. Most mocks predict a wide receiver at pick number nine to complement presumably Caleb Williams at QB. Still, with the DE class of 2024 being top-heavy, some experts predict Atlanta being the first to pick a defender at #8, following a second to Chicago at #9. The names being touted are Byron Murphy, Dallas Turner, and Jared Verse, and any of these rushers opposite Sweat should be strongly considered to have league-winning upside in redraft and must-drafts in dynasty.
As for Sweat himself, while he possesses true upside in a new environment, he currently has an uncalled-for bump in his value, so I consider him too expensive and a mixed bag in his range of outcomes, at least until the draft is over. He should be considered a DL3 with upside, and while he is ranked at #10 DL dynasty rankings on FantasyPros, that’s too rich and optimistic for my conservative IDP taste. while he is in the top 15 DL for IDP, he certainly is NOT in the top 10. In a dynasty startup draft, I consider drafting fellow rushers like Justin Madubuike, Chris Jones, and Trey Hendrickson over Montez and see him closer to guys like Quinnen Williams and George Karlaftis, which places him as a low third/high fourth-tier defensive lineman.
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