2024 Dynasty Target: Kyle Pitts
Hop in the time machine with me, and let’s take a trip to the 2022 NFL offseason, where Kyle Pitts was fresh off his rookie campaign where he turned 68 receptions (on 110 targets) into 1026 yards, which was good for the 2nd most receiving yards by a rookie in NFL history. Headed into his sophomore season, Pitts was challenging Travis Kelce for the consensus TE1 title, despite the fact that Kelce was coming off a 6th consecutive season finishing inside the top two fantasy TE’s. Fast forward to the 2024 offseason, and a lot has changed. One thing I can tell you, is that if you’re out, it’s time to get back in. If you’re like me, you don’t have to be back in if you were never out in the first place.
Let’s not waste time and let us dive and talk about 2024 Dynasty Target: Kyle Pitts!
Player Overview
Whenever Kyle Pitts was drafted 4th overall by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2021 NFL Draft, he was considered by most as the most impressive Tight End prospect in NFL history. His combination of college production, size, speed, and overall athletic ability was something we really hadn’t seen at the position. He responded to this hype finishing his rookie season with almost 70 receptions and the second most receiving yards by a rookie TE in NFL history. Unfortunately, that was the last time that Kyle Pitts would see anything that resembled average NFL QB play.
After trading Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts, the Falcons signed free agent QB Marcus Mariota and drafted former University of Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder with the 74th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Unfortunately for Pitts, Marcus Mariota was awful through the first 13 weeks of the season. 26% of his passes were deemed uncatchable, which was the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. Mariota also completed a league worst 22.2% of his deep passes, which provided Pitts with minimal opportunities to hit on big plays down the field. Just to add on to the poor QB play, Kyle Pitts also took a shot to the knee in Week 11 that ended up requiring surgery and knocked Pitts out for the rest of the season. Despite all of this, his average draft position for dynasty startups was still sitting around the TE3. Things just couldn’t get much worse, right?
Wrong. After Pitts’ sophomore season that was filled with bad QB play and an injury issue, things still got worse. The Falcons chose to move on from Marcus Mariota (good), but decided to add to the QB room by signing Taylor Heinicke (not good). The theme of Kyle Pitts having to deal with bad QB play did not change one bit. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the two QBs throwing Kyle Pitts the ball last year, Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder, had the highest charted off-target throw rate to their first-read since 2021, at 26.9% and 25.7% respectively. Now coming off of two years of dealing with bad QB play, his average draft position had fallen from being in contention for the overall TE1, down to the TE8 according to December 2023 DLF Dynasty Startup ADP.
After that blast from the past, now we’re back in present day, where the Atlanta Falcons have signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract worth up to $180 million and surprisingly spent the 8th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on QB Michael Penix from Washington. No matter how you slice it, this QB room is dramatically improved compared to what Kyle Pitts has dealt with after the Falcons moved on from Matt Ryan. Not only have they improved the QB room, the coaching staff saw a boost as well.
The Falcons are finally free from Arthur Smith, and have hired former Los Angeles Rams Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris to be their new Head Coach. Coming over with Raheem Morris to be the Falcons Offensive Coordinator is former Rams Pass Game Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach Zac Robinson. Recent history has shown us that bringing in young minds that have shared a room with Sean McVay to run your offense has been a pretty good bet. Despite all of these positive changes surrounding Kyle Pitts’ situation in Atlanta, his ADP has only come up two spots to the TE6. This means that there’s still time to buy.
Player Summary
A lot of this just comes down to what you believe. Do you think that Kyle Pitts was an overrated college prospect that is closer to what we’ve seen the last two years than what we saw his rookie season? Or are you like me, and you believe that Kyle Pitts is still the same player that we saw in college and during his rookie season, that’s dealt with unfortunate injury luck and all-time bad QB play.
Personally, I’m impressed that he was able to play 17 games in 2023 following the MCL/PCL surgery, and I’m not convinced he was ever fully healthy during the season. Now another year removed from the injury, we should be get to see a fully healthy Kyle Pitts in 2024 with an improved QB and coaching staff. Despite all of these issues, he’s still led all TE’s in unrealized air yards over the last two seasons. He’s now paired with a QB in Kirk Cousins who was 2nd among all QBs with at least 300 drop backs last season with an overall catchable target percentage of 81.4% and has not been shy with targeting the TE position over the course of his career with TE’s such as Jordan Reed and most recently TJ Hockenson having very productive seasons alongside Cousins.
Whenever you block out all of the noise and focus on the fact that last season Kyle Pitts was 1st among TEs in air yard share and 4th in yards per route run, it’s easy to paint the picture for a bounceback season in 2024. I also believe that the lower than usual yards after the catch can be explained by the injury concerns, and the low percentage of the teams first read and designed targets to Arthur Smith’s consistently bad game plans. A fully healthy Kyle Pitts with an improved QB room and coaching staff is something that’s easy for me to get excited about.
Trade Value
According to the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer, Kyle Pitts is currently worth a late 1st round rookie pick in Superflex dynasty rookie drafts, between the 1.10-1.11 in your typical 12-team leagues. According to recent DLF Superflex Rookie ADP, players such as Brian Thomas Jr, Jonathan Brooks, Bo Nix, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman are going in that range. If I need a TE, I’m happy to trade away that pick and pass on the opportunity to draft any of those players in favor of adding Kyle Pitts to my roster.
Some of the recent trades including Kyle Pitts using the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder include:
- Kyle Pitts, 3.07 for Pat Freiermuth, 1.12, and 3.10
- Kyle Pitts, 3.04 for Jahan Dotson, 1.10
- Kyle Pitts for Trey McBride, 3.02
Give me the Kyle Pitts side on every one of those trades.
Despite already being in the NFL for three years Kyle Pitts is still only 23 years old, which is the same age as Sam LaPorta and younger than Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid, all of which have less NFL experience than Pitts but are higher in the May 2024 Superflex Dynasty TE ADP. While they’re all close to the same age, it’s no question that all of those TE’s ahead of Pitts have been playing in better offenses with better QBs since being drafted. Situation makes a huge difference, and talent can only take you so far as a pass catcher that’s dependent on a competent QB getting you the ball and an offensive scheme that will get you open.
Now that the playing field is much more even on the QB and offensive scheme front, I expect Kyle Pitts’ talent to be able to truly shine through for the first time since his rookie season. For my money, Kyle Pitts is the most gifted TE in the NFL not named Travis Kelce. I fully expect that TE6 ADP will only continue to rise once we get to see this improved Atlanta Falcons offense on the field, so this offseason is your last chance to buy Kyle Pitts while he is the cheapest that I believe he will be in dynasty for a long time.
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