Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is Kenneth Walker III, Running Back, Michigan State University
Projected Draft Spot
2nd Round
Potential Suitors
Falcons, Texans, Chiefs, Bucs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Jets
Strengths
Kenneth Walker III was turning heads in a Heisman-level performance against Michigan.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 30, 2021
🟢 5 TD
🟢 197 YDS
WOW 😤 pic.twitter.com/x9eVYVqx0z
Kenneth Walker III is a well-rounded running back and was recognized with multiple college awards in 2021. Walker III has great contact balance, which helped him lead the NCAA in missed tackles in 2021 (89). He was able to rack up an impressive 4.3 yards after contact per carry, which is comparable to Jonathan Taylor’s 4.5 YAC/carry and he also played in the Big Ten. At 5’9” and 211 lbs, Walker III showed he has the power to break through tackles and lower his pads to fight for the tough yards. He is not a big running back, but he is big enough that his size is not a concern at the next level.
Walker III has speed and burst too! He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash (98th %) and averaged 73 breakaway yards per game. There are so many highlight videos of Walker III getting to the next level of the defense and then he was gone for a touchdown. He knows how to plant his foot and hit a hole with his burst to get those easy five-yard gains.
Speed doesn’t help much as a running back if you do not have good vision to see the lanes. Kenneth Walker III showed last year that he can read his blocks and make the right cuts to maximize his yards. The combination of his vision and speed allow him to have so many big plays.
Weaknesses
Kenneth Walker III has not been given a chance to show off his pass-catching abilities. In his collegiate career, he had 19 receptions. It is hard to judge him off of only 19 receptions, so it would be unfair to say he cannot catch. Walker III did not get the opportunity to show his hand skills, but that is still a mystery in the prospecting process.
Walker III did not prove that he could pass block in college either. This is his biggest weakness right now heading into the NFL Draft. Plenty of college running backs struggle with pass blocking coming out of college. That being said this is a skill he can obviously develop as he progresses in the NFL. This deficiency, however, could impact him for fantasy because there is a greater chance he is taken out of the game on third down plays because he cannot be relied on to pass block in obvious passing situations. That would limit his snaps and his opportunities, at least as a rookie.
Player Comparisons
Current Player: Josh Jacobs
From a body standpoint, Josh Jacobs is 5’10” and 221 lbs and Kenneth Walker III is 5’ 9” and 211 lbs. Walker III is a bit faster, but both run with power. Jacobs did not get much receiving work in college or the first couple of seasons in the NFL. He could still catch though and he had a career-high 54 receptions in 2021. Walker III could see an increase in receptions over the first few seasons in the NFL like Jacobs. Josh Jacobs runs hard and has a nose for the endzone. Kenneth Walker III runs hard too and showed he can score plenty of touchdowns. Walker III is capable of being the goal-line running back for his NFL team, even as a rookie.
Old School: LaDainian Tomlinson
Okay hear me out first, I am not saying Kenneth Walker III will become the best-ever fantasy running back like LaDainian Tomlinson. They both have similar bodies and speeds. LT was 5’10” and 215 lbs, and he ran a 4.46 (86th %) 40-yard dash. Walker III ran faster than LT. Both running backs have a great burst and wiggle to avoid and shed tackles. LT was dominant in the passing game and his receptions took him to another level in fantasy. Walker III has not had that opportunity yet, and he is not expected to as a rookie, at least.
Best Case Drafted By: New York Jets early 2nd Round
Honestly, several teams would be good for Kenneth Walker III for fantasy, as long as he gets drafted early enough to give him a better chance of having a significant workload. The New York Jets is a sneaky good team for Walker III because their offensive line continues to improve and he can easily take over first and second downs, while Michael Carter handles third downs. Walker III would also be the goal-line back in that situation. The Jets have a young offense and Walker III would fit in and grow with the rest of the squad. There is risk in Zach Wilson not developing enough to command the offense, but no landing spot is perfect.
Worst Case Drafted By: Philadelphia Eagles later 2nd round
If Kenneth Walker III is drafted in the late 2nd round or later then there would be some concern about his potential workload based on his draft capital, especially if he joins a crowded backfield. The Philadelphia Eagles could use a running back like Kenneth Walker III if they do not believe in Miles Sanders, as he goes into the last year of his contract. Walker III would be splitting snaps with Sanders, Scott and Gainwell would handle third downs. I just do not see Walker III being effective with the Eagles until at least his second season, assuming Miles Sanders is not brought back in 2023. Jalen Hurts will take away goal-line touchdown opportunities too. From an NFL perspective, it makes sense for the Eagles, but for fantasy football, it would minimize the excitement for Kenneth Walker III.
Fantasy Relevant in 2022?
Kenneth Walker III can be fantasy relevant in 2022, but an RB3 is more reasonable. Rookies typically take time to earn snaps and opportunities unless they are in a situation when they are the only option. For example, Najee Harris had zero competition for snaps on the Steelers so it was easy for him to be fantasy relevant with that much workload. Odds are that Walker III will share the backfield in 2022. He should have a much better second half of 2022 than the first half. He may finish as an RB3, but he could have RB2 scores in the back half of 2022. Walker III is not expected to catch the ball much, and that will always limit his potential upside until that changes. He is not expected to be on the field in obvious passing situations until his pass blocking improves, and that will take time well beyond Week 1 of 2022. Kenneth Walker III will be fantasy relevant in 2022, but do not let the expectations get too high.
