Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio State University
Projected Draft Spot
Mid to Late First Round.
Potential Suitors
Falcons, Jets, Commanders, Texans, Vikings, Eagles, Chargers, Saints, Patriots, Packers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Lions, essentially every single team from 8 down.
Strengths
Olave might be the most pro-ready of any receiver in this class as a result of his route running ability and general feel for breaking off the stem of his route and finding the soft areas in zones. He has the ability to get open from wherever he is lined up with his crafty route running and game-breaking speed. Olave’s route running prowess can sometimes make people forget about his ability to be a true deep threat. With a 6′ frame and sub 4.4 speed, Olave would be a welcome addition to any offense that could use a number 2 or just a “take the top off the defense” guy. Unlike his counterpart Garrett Wilson, Olave led Ohio State in either receiving yards or receiving touchdowns every year he played a meaningful role (2019-2021) showing not only does he have the speed and craftiness to be a pro-ready receiver, but he has the numbers to back it up in the second-best football conference in College Football.
Weaknesses
Chris Olave comes with a lot of strengths, but he also comes with a lot of weaknesses which I believe will drive him down later in the first round. Unfortunately, 6′ and 187 pounds is not a very stout frame for an NFL receiver, and considering Olave had trouble with press coverage in College he will be given fits by NFL cornerbacks wanting to press him. Because of this downfall, there is simply no way a team can draft Olave to be their X (number one, lines up on the line of scrimmage) receiver. The other big issue I came away with after watching Olave play is why doesn’t his speed show up after the catch. Olave is almost exclusively a catch the ball, fall down receiver and with his measurables I don’t quite understand it. YAC ability is very in vogue in the NFL right now and unfortunately, Olave simply does not fit the mold and will have to find a bit more of a specific fit for his particular set of skills (Liam Neeson Voice).
Player Comps
The glove fits a little too well comparing Chris Olave to Calvin Ridley. While it might be a lofty comparison Olave has the ability to live up to what Calvin Ridley was when he had his head in the right place and wasn’t betting on games. Olave and Ridley are extremely similar in their physical profiles; both just barely over 6′ tall, Olave is 187 pounds coming out, Ridley was 189 pounds coming out, both ran a 40 within 4 hundredths of a second of each other (Olave ran 4.39 Ridley ran 4.43), Olave jumped 32″, Ridley jumped 31″. Beyond the stunningly close physical testing numbers both are crafty route runners with good hands, good speed, and a lack of elite explosiveness resulting in poor run after the catch statistics. Olave would be great at serving in the super-powered number 2 receiver role like Ridley did for several years behind Julio if he can find the right landing spot.
Best Case Landing Spot
If Olave makes it this late into the first round Olave landing in Arizona would make a ton of sense and be extremely good for his production levels as well as the production levels for the entire Arizona offense. Arizona just lost their number 2, Christian Kirk, to Jacksonville and are left wanting a bit at receiver with Deandre Hopkins having a down year due to health and creating conversations about his washed level. Arizona also has a young receiver in Rondale Moore who underperformed a bit in 2021 but will still man the slot role in that offense. Olave would slot into the Z receiver role nicely opposite Nuk from day one and give the Cardinals what I believe is an instant upgrade over Christian Kirk.
Worst Case Landing Spot
My belief for the worst-case landing spot for Olave likely isn’t a popular one but I believe it to be the Philadelphia Eagles. The one and only concern is volume, Jalen Hurts ranked 21st in pass attempts in the NFL last year with 432, or to put it in other terms, 60% of the amount of Tom Brady’s attempts (719) last season. With the Eagles spending a first-rounder on Devonta Smith last year as well as extending Dallas Goedert there is no volume available in this offense. With Smith and Goedert likely accounting for 200-250 targets by themselves that leaves appx 200 targets to go around. When you look at NFL offenses they typically give about 35-40% of their target share to non-fantasy relevant weapons and running backs. If we’re doing generous math that leaves about 80 targets up for grabs in the Eagles’ offense and I for one am not betting on every single one of those going to the rookie.
Fantasy Relevant in 2022?
Olave can certainly be fantasy relevant in 2022 and I sincerely hope he is. If Olave lands on the Cardinals I believe we would be looking at a re-draft WR3 finish making him a really nice weekly flex to have on your team. However, Olave’s value might suffer a bit if he is drafted by a team where he doesn’t have a clear runway to volume, i.e. Eagles, Cowboys, Bills.
Thanks for reading my 2022 Prospect Profile on Chris Olave. Make sure to check out our other prospect profiles on our website by clicking here!
