Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is Breece Hall, Running Back, Iowa State Univerisity
Projected Draft Spot
2nd Round
Potential Suitors
Falcons, Texans, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bucs, Ravens, Bills
Strengths
Breece Hall is the definition of a three-down back in today’s NFL. Hall had an incredible three years in college when it comes to production. During his Sophomore and Junior seasons, he scored 41 rushing touchdowns (56 overall/50 for his career on the ground, a school record) while rushing for over 3000 yards (over 4500 total yards for his career) all doing so with a below-average offensive line during that time. He showed true athleticism at the Combine with a 4.39 40-time and a 40 inch vertical. He’s a smooth, natural runner who is patient at finding a hole and then exploding through it. Hall had 22 carries of 15 yards or more, top ten in college football last season. Despite not getting a lot of opportunities, he’s proved he’s an above-average receiving back.
He’s very durable and has proved he can handle a true workhorse role, with over 500 carries over the last two seasons, 111 more carries than any other running back in college football the last two seasons. Some worry this is a negative due to the miles already on his body, but this was said about recent first-round picks Jonathan Taylor and Melvin Gordon yet we’ve seen how successful they’ve been in the pros thus far. Hall excels in zone blocking schemes, using his ability to find the hole and burst through it in a flash. Breece has an amazing ability to maintain his balance after taking contact evidenced by his yards after contact metrics.
Weaknesses
.@CutonDime25 was impressed with @CycloneFB RB @BreeceH‘s Combine performance, but more importantly his confidence. (via @gmfb) pic.twitter.com/EYPvQx3VmD
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) March 7, 2022
My biggest concern with Hall is his pass blocking ability. I truly believe he is a three-down workhorse running back in the making, but he needs to improve his pass blocking in order to do that. He, also, needs to work on lowering his shoulders as running with your shoulders high makes it difficult to get short yardage, particularly in the red zone
Hopefully, he will end up in a zone running scheme. Not only because he thrives in one, but his running in man(gap) schemes needs improvement. He’s not as explosive going east to west as he is going north/south. As I mentioned above, he is a patient runner. There are times he appears to hesitate in the backfield and that can lead to him being occasionally tackled in the backfield. Overall, I believe most of his weaknesses are a form of nitpicking. Hall is the most complete back in this draft class. There are things he needs to improve in, but the only major concern is his pass blocking skills.
Player Comparisons
Current Player: (Le’Veon Bell)
Breece Hall since 2019:
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) March 31, 2022
???? 3,920 rushing yards (most in P5)
????2,310 yards after contact (most)
???? 50 rushing TDs (most)
???? 194 forced missed tackles (most)pic.twitter.com/tYQgsAKqAv
Hall reminds me so much of Bell with his patience in waiting for a hole to open along the offensive line and then attacking it. They’re, also, similar in how they both can be weapons on the ground or in the passing game. They are fairly similar in their size and weight but Hall is a much better athlete and a lot faster. They also have a lot of the same concerns coming out of college into the NFL. Many thought Bell could improve being a pass-catcher which, like Hall, was due to not having a lot of pass-catching opportunities in college. Both have been questioned about their blocking ability. If Hall ends up having the career Bell did, the team that drafts him will be ecstatic.
Old School: (Matt Forte)
Scouts said this about Forte coming into the NFL. A back with great vision, patience, and hits the hole hard when he finds it. All this despite playing for a below-average offensive line. His biggest weakness is he struggles with pass blocking. Sound familiar? All of these things were said above about Hall. I know a lot of people are in love with Walker and Spiller or they love the upside of Damien Pierce or Brian Robinson. They might be right, but I think there isn’t a running back more likely to succeed than Hall. He’s fast, has great vision, has under utilized pass-catching abilities, is not undersized, and most importantly to me is durable. I do not think you can understate how important it is to know a running back can immediately handle the lead-back workload in the NFL. It’s a lot for a rookie to play an extra 5-6 games, against tougher competition and not wear down as the season goes on. Hall has proved he can handle a big workload in college, twice. Forte ended up with 300+ carries his rookie season and helped his team improve from a losing record to a winning record. I could see Hall doing the same thing this season.
Best Case Drafted By: (Bills 1st Round)
Anyone who watched the Bills’ offense down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs witnessed the birth of what should be the next great offense in the NFL. Josh Allen has become arguably a top 3 QB in the NFL by improving his accuracy and the Bills coaching staff letting his athleticism loose. However, there is one glaring change this Bills offense needs to make in order to reach another stratosphere and that’s a running back for opposing defenses to worry about. No disrespect to Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, but they are not those guys. Buffalo’s offense thrived last season despite being one-dimensional and Breece Hall could provide balance to an already great offense and another weapon for Josh Allen in the passing game. Hall became just the 5th back since 2007 that NextGenStats graded with 99 when it comes to athleticism. The others were Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. Not a bad list to be included on.
I’m normally in the camp that you should never take a running back in the first round, but the AFC is absolutely loaded after the 2021 offseason moves by teams like Denver, Miami, and Oakland. All three teams greatly improved their offenses with Denver adding Russell Wilson, Miami adding Tyreek Hill, and Oakland adding Davante Adams. If the Bills had glaring defensive needs, I could understand the hesitation in spending their first-round pick on a running back. The only other position that could be needed by Buffalo is cornerback. That being said there aren’t any cornerbacks in this draft class that could make such a profound impact on their team as Hall could have with his.
Worst Case Drafted By: (Texans 2nd round)
If Hall gets passed on by the Bills near the end of the first round, he will more than likely be drafted by the Houston Texans early in the second. The Texans are in desperate need of a running back to help their second-year QB Davis Mills and the addition of Hall would help open up the passing attack led by Brandon Cooks. Davis Mills was one of the pleasant surprises in 2021, but he was under constant pressure by opposing pass rushers. As mentioned above in the weaknesses of Breece Hall, his biggest struggle is in pass blocking. The Texans Quarterbacks were sacked 44 times in 2021. They need a running back who can help protect their Quarterback when asked to do so. I worry this is something Hall cannot do well right away and as a result, puts him behind the eight ball in terms of playing opportunities to start his career.
The other major concern for Hall coming out of college is the amount of wear and tear he has on his body due to his heavy workload in college. I am a firm believer that running backs only have so many carries in them before their body starts breaking down. The Texans are still several years from being a true contender. I would hate to see Hall go to a bad team like the Texans and waste his most productive years on a losing team. I would much rather see him drafted by the Bills, Dolphins, or Chiefs who all are in need of a true workhorse back. The Texans do run primarily zone blocking schemes, which is what Hall needs to be in, but I hope for his sake he ends up on a team that he can help win a championship. That is definitely not the Houston Texans next year.
Fantasy Relevant Next Season?
Depending on his landing spot and the running back philosophy of the team that selects him (two back system vs one workhorse back), the answer to this could be a resounding YES! As mentioned above his heavy workload in college, along with his receiving abilities makes him a potentially true NFL three-down back, which is rare in today’s game. For fantasy purposes, finding a three-down back to have on your roster is the equivalent of finding a winning lottery ticket. Just look at Najee Harris, last year’s first running back taken, who was a Top 10 scoring running back in fantasy. If he is drafted by a team that uses him in a two-back system. I would be high on him in Dynasty but not in traditional leagues unless you can get him later in your draft to be your third or fourth running back.
