2022 NFL Draft Dynasty Fallout: Receivers (WR/TE)

May 3, 2022 Tyler Heil

The 2022 NFL Draft has come and gone and the top of the wide receiver is as muddy as it ever has been. I am going to do my best to clarify how some of these landing spots will affect the immediate and long-term dynasty value of this highly touted class of pass catchers.

Well, I guess we have reached the point where all wide receiver draft classes are going to be highly coveted in perpetuity, forever. As evidenced by teams being willing to move on from the top 10 receivers in the league these NFL teams love them some rookie pass catchers. This rookie class of receivers alone could nearly fill out the first round of your rookie draft and still have good candidates to be productive in year 1.

Unfortunately with the relative (or complete) lack of high-end talent at Quarterback, Running Back, and Tight End these receivers will be pushed way up the board in your rookie draft and you will need to prioritize them. I tried to split the top rookies into tiers to assist you in prioritizing your queue as your rookie drafts draw near.

The Lottery Picks

For those that aren’t basketball fans, the “lottery” portion of the draft is made up of the teams who failed to make the playoffs, which would comprise the top 18 picks of the NFL Draft, sure I didn’t include the guys that were picked 16 and 18 in this portion but who are you? My Mother? The 4 top guys off the board in this class were at least in my opinion the top 4 talents in this class. We’re talking about Garrett Wilson (Jets), Drake London (Falcons), Jameson Williams (Lions), and Chris Olave (Saints).

All four of these players, save perhaps Chris Olave if Michael Thomas determines he’d like to play football again at some point in the near future have an extremely easy road to being the target hog on their team and pushing for a 20+% target share their rookie year. All but Wilson have a bridge quarterback their rookie year and could look to improve on a high volume rookie year with a high volume sophomore year with a better QB. I know some people will include some guys from tier 2 here and I wouldn’t hold it against you, but I feel these 4 should easily be the top receivers off the board.

12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: None of these receivers should be available beyond 1.07 in your rookie draft and depending on your feelings about the 4 players in tier 2 should set a good target for those that will want to move up to lock in a productive pass catcher for years to come.

Further Fallout: While this dashes some WR1 hopes for Elijah Moore as a result of the Garret Wilson selection none of these selections should create too much fallout for other players on their teams. I would hear an argument for Jameson Williams affecting Amon-Ra St Brown I think it will only benefit him. These two nearly play different positions with Williams being a big-play field stretcher and ARSB manning the short to intermediate part of the field and should complement each other well.

Tier 2 Can Look an Awful Lot Like Tier 1

Tier 2 is made up of 4 other players that don’t quite have the pedigree of the tier 1 players, but should have every opportunity and more in some cases to make a huge impact on their new teams in their rookie year. I speak of course of Skyy Moore (Chiefs), Treylon Burks (Titans), Christian Watson (Packers), and George Pickens (Steelers).

Skyy Moore is the highest-rated prospect the Chiefs have drafted at the receiver position in the past 6 years. The moves the Chiefs have made over the past year tell us they want to play less of an over-the-top game and Moore fits perfectly into that role. Burks essentially inherits the AJ Brown role, but with Robert Woods being the second-best receiver that team has had in 5 years and Burks being slightly slower, weaker, and less explosive than AJ Brown his ability to properly fill that role remains to be seen. Christian Watson is not a guy I was overly excited about coming out but the Packers sure saw enough in him to trade up for him and make him Aaron Rodgers’s new number 1 receiver. Last but not least George Pickens joins a Steelers team with an extremely high ceiling as a player and more opportunity than one might be led to believe after an underwhelming sophomore season from Chase Claypool.

12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: With the uncertainty at the running back position after the top 2 and complete lack of ceiling at QB outside of Pickett these 4 players will all likely go in some order and fill out the end of the first round, making a 2022 first rounder slightly more valuable than we have been lead to believe over the past couple years.

Further Fallout: All of these players outside of George Pickens go into relatively wide-open target shares with good to GOAT level quarterbacks. All of these picks are good for all quarterbacks involved, however, Pickens could hurt the value of Claypool, but possibly also siphon some targets away from Najee’s obscenely large 94 target number from 2021.

Tier 3 Is Still Immediately Productive

As one of the two players in this tier, it is small but mighty. I am referring to Jahan Dotson (Commanders) and David Bell (Browns) as both should have an immediate impact in their rookie years. While Dotson was the 16th pick in the draft and should walk into a starting role opposite Terry McLaurin he goes to a team with a bad QB and quite a bit of target share already spoken for. Dotson will carve out his own role throughout the season by way of his superior play the productivity ceiling will be capped in this offense. With the lack of depth at the receiver position in Cleveland, David Bell should have a chance to compete for starting reps right away. While I believe the browns still hope to sign another receiver and/or start DPJ that eventuality has not yet occurred and will give David Bell a chance to compete for a significant target share on a team where he might already be the second most polished receiver.

12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: This is the point in your draft where you could see a run on running backs pushing these guys down into the later second round. I would be ecstatic to end up with either of these two guys in the 2.07-2.08 range.

Further Fallout: The addition of these two to their respective teams slightly increases the ceilings for the quarterbacks and doesn’t hurt many other pass catchers too much. I say that assuming we have all given up on Curtis Samuel and no truthers remain out there.

The Best of the Rest

I have three more tiers in my receiver rankings but I won’t be diving as deep into them. What I will do is list my favorite remaining receivers that have intriguing traits, pedigree and/or landing spots.

  • John Metchie III (Texans)
  • Alec Pierce (Colts)
  • Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants)
  • Romeo Doubs (Packers)
  • Jalen Tolbert (Cowboys)
  • Khalil Shakir (Bills)
  • Danny Gray (49ers)
  • Tyquan Thorton (Patriots)
  • Calvin Austin (Steelers)
  • Velus Jones Jr (Bears)

Trey McBride is the Green Ranger

Listen. If you didn’t think the Green Ranger was the coolest Power Ranger I’m not entirely sure we can be friends, but I’d give it a go. From the start, McBride has been TE1 in this class with his ability not just to catch the ball but to block. Let me regale you with some of his achievements from his senior year at Colorado State; 90 receptions for 1121 yards, Unanimous All-American, John Mackey award winner, First Team All-MWC, led the team in receiving, team captain. Unless you’re just being obtuse McBride should be your TE1.

Let’s keep with the theme here and rattle off my next 5 tight ends.

  • Red Ranger: Greg Dulcich (Broncos)
    • Dulcich is the number 2 to McBrides Green Ranger. Has a lot of the tools just can’t quite be number 1.
  • Blue Ranger: Jeremy Ruckert (Jets)
    • Ruckert is Blue Ranger because he is just a reliable yet unspectacular guy.
  • Pink Ranger: Jelani Woods (Colts)
    • I think this one is clear. Jelani Woods has all of the physical tools to be dominant and everyone who pays attention to his traits has a crush on him.
  • Yellow Ranger: Cade Otton (Buccaneers)
    • Otton is solid yet unspectacular and will rarely be the main character.
  • Black Ranger: Daniel Bellinger (Giants)
    • While Bellinger goes overlooked he has extremely good athleticism (4.63 40, 34.5″ vert, 125″ broad, 7.03 3-cone) for his size (6’5″, 253 pounds) and has some real potential to make some noise.

That concludes my thoughts on the 2022 draft dynasty fallout for receivers. Thanks for reading, and feel free to give me feedback on Twitter. You can also find me on our Dynasty 365 podcast, streaming at 8:30 PM ET every Tuesday.

About Tyler Heil 24 Articles
Director of Dynasty Content. I’m a numbers and spreadsheets geek (A freak in the (excel) sheets, some might say) that wanted to share my obsession with others. In 2021 Fantasy In Frames gave me that opportunity, and now my main hobby is helping others get a more holistic and detailed viewpoint on the games we all love. Football and Fantasy Football.
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