2022 Fantasy Football Preview: AFC South
Welcome to our next Fantasy Football Divisional Preview for the 2022 NFL Season!
While loaded with information from both sides of the ball, all of our writers here at Fantasy In Frames made sure to make all of our analyses as digestible as possible so that you can get the detailed information you NEED to go out there and dominate your fantasy football drafts. Let’s keep things going with our 2022 Fantasy Football Preview of the AFC South!
Quarterback Summary
Follow @TylerHeilThere are no two ways around this; the AFC South is a bit of a junk drawer for fantasy quarterbacking. The good thing about junk drawers is that you can find some long-forgotten treasures buried in said drawer. None of these guys are ranked in my top 12 and probably shouldn’t be. Whether it be because the team is in a bad place offensively or these quarterbacks are at a tipping point in their respective careers, there are many questions about all 4 of them. Rather than rambling on about the question marks, I will dive into each of these situations as I have them ranked.
Matt Ryan
Up first is former MVP, 37-year-old Matt Ryan. Ryan finds himself in the best situation of these quarterbacks and could represent an actual value in your fantasy draft. He is surrounded by an excellent offensive line, arguably the best running back in the NFL, one of the better play callers in the NFL in Head Coach Frank Reich, and a young stud wide receiver on the outside. Ryan is working on the second (maybe third) act of his career and has every motivation imaginable to cement his legacy as one of the best quarterbacks of the era. He was on a bad offense last year with a poor defense to boot and still managed to will his team to 7 wins. An agreeable statement that can be made is that Matt Ryan is a better quarterback right now than Carson Wentz. As bad as Carson Wentz was for real football last year, he still finished the season as the overall QB14 and finished that season as the QB13 in median score ranking, representing consistent performance. I am comfortable taking Matt Ryan in the last round of my 1QB league and watching him push the QB1 threshold this year on what will be one of the better offenses in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence
Directly behind Matt Ryan in my rankings is someone that has had the most significant improvement in overall team situation in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence will have a hard time shaking off that Urban Meyer stink from the 2021 season, but Doug Pederson should be a big help in that effort. Trevor had one of the worst collections of offensive talent around him in the NFL last year, losing Travis Etienne before the season started and James Robinson for a handful of games. The Jaguars went out and made aggressive moves to bolster the offensive talent on this team, contract value be damned, by signing Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Brandon Scherff, and Zay Jones. Trevor should be poised to make a jump this year and push the QB1 threshold like Matt Ryan will this year.
Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill is an exciting fantasy football case. The outcomes of his playoff performance in real football have tarnished some of the shine from Tannehill as a fantasy performer. However, let’s remember that the Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC last year, only having got 13 games out of AJ Brown, several of which he was far less than 100%. I would also like to remind you of Tannehill’s fantasy finishes over the last two years.
– 2021: QB12
– 2020: QB7 (!!)
While the Titans lost AJ Brown via trade for some reason, only John Robinson will ever understand they still have their best offensive player in Derrick Henry. While he is not AJ Brown, the Titans attempted to bolster their offense by drafting Treylon Burks in the back of the first round and went out and signed Robert Woods, who should be a surprising fantasy finisher. Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy value is certainly not as sexy as it was in the past. Still, like any good financial portfolio, you need some highly boring investments to raise your floor and protect yourself.
Davis Mills
Lastly and leastly (don’t worry about it, I’m making it a thing) in this division is Davis Mills. Mills did an admirable job quarterbacking a team that played extremely hard last year regardless of their evident talent deficiency compared to other NFL teams. Mills even broke into backend QB2 territory in his second starting stint once David Culley realized Tyrod Taylor was not the answer, finishing as the QB22 from week 12 until the end of the season. Mills represents some sneaky upside in 2QB/Super Flex leagues. If he can look like he did over the second half of last season, he has a real chance of, at worst, looking like a competent NFL starter on a bad team; at best, he shows the Texans he is their answer at the position and drags a still bad team, kicking and screaming to an almost .500 finish landing himself solidly in the middle to back end QB2 range.
Best Value at the Quarterback Position
Follow @KeithFlemmingQB Trevor Lawrence ADP 19
Despite a terrible 1st season in many aspects for Trevor Lawrence, make no mistake about it, he’s going to be a great NFL QB. Before I get into the reasons why he’s the best value in this division at QB. Let’s go over the mess that was his rookie year. The Jaguars’ front office and ownership did him no favors by hiring a college coach, Urban Meyer, who for an X and O standpoint, had never had success in college with a pro-style QB like Lawrence. Two weeks after being hired, Meyer put together a coaching staff that included Chris Doyle, who in his last spot Iowa, was put on administrative leave for allegations of racism and mistreatment of his players. Doyle would resign a day later, but the cluster you know what of the Meyer tenure in Jax had begun. In July, the team was fined $200K and Meyer 100k for OTA violations.
In Week 1 of the NFL season, the Jags played the Texans (the team many viewed the worst in the NFL), The Jags were blown out 37-21. Before their 2nd game, there were reports of Meyer’s interest in college openings, most notably USC. Later in September, Meyer the told coach of the Broncos Vic Fangio, that “the NFL is tough.” On September 30th, in the teams closest game to date, they lost 24-21 in Cincinnati to the Bengals. Meyer didn’t travel back to Jax with the team, instead staying in Ohio. 3 days later the infamous bar video of Meyer with a woman who wasn’t his wife surfaced. By December, Meyer was saying he didn’t make decisions like pulling players, he called his assistant coaches losers and got into an argument with receiver Marvin Jones. By the middle of December Josh Lambo, Jags kicker, accused Meyer of kicking him in warmups, and called special teams players derogatory names. He was fired hours after that news broke. I know that was lengthy, but before I get to the reasons I believe Lawerence is going to be a value in Year 2, I think it’s important for everyone to remember the situation Lawerence was in Year 1 and therefore you shouldn’t hold his shaky play against him.
It should be no surprise that Lawrence put together his best 3 games stretch in the games the team was not coached by Meyer at the end of the season. Finishing his season with his best performance of the year, where the Jags shocked the NFL world by eliminating a trendy sleeper team to win the title, the Indianapolis Colts. Coach Doug Pederson is why I’m most bullish on Lawrence. Pederson played the position of QB and got the most out of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and we’ve seen both of their struggles since.
Lawrence is not mentioned with the other young QBs in his draft class who are very good runners, but Trevor had over 300 yards rushing last year. That’s an extra 30 points in a season, and that’s not including his 2 rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars added Christian Kirk in the off-season to improve their receiving core, and Lawrence’s talented RB teammate Travis Etienne returns from missing all of his rookie season. Lawrence was the latest of “can’t miss” QBs coming out of college, a list that has lived up to the hype almost every single time, and it’s not unheard of for these “can’t miss” QBs to struggle in Year 1. Lawrence and Peyton Manning had similar Year 1 numbers in completion percentage, yardage per game, and touchdown to interception ratio. I think, like Manning, Lawrence will improve greatly on his rookie year numbers, and that’s why he’s the best value at QB in this division.
Running Back Summary
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanThe AFC South division has two of the best running backs in the NFL and fantasy football. Then two young running backs can be very exciting to watch too. Below is a summary of each starting running back in the division.
Derrick Henry
This man is just built differently. Derrick Henry is a massive human being, and he still has the top speed to hit long runs. Henry was amazing the first eight games of the 2021 season, then was injured and missed the rest of the regular season. People forget how incredible those first eight games were last year. He scored 23 points per game in half-PPR, which was the highest and 2.2 points more than Jonathan Taylor. Henry’s 17-game season pace based on his first eight games was 465 carries, 1,991 rushing yards, 21 rushing touchdowns, 38 receptions, 43 targets, and 327 receiving yards! That is a small sample size and you cannot perfectly extrapolate those stats, but it illustrates how fantastic Henry was in the first eight weeks before his injury. Just to put that pace in perspective, he would have scored 376.8 total points, which would have been the 2nd highest running back total score over the last 15 seasons (only behind CMC in 2019 with 413.2 points). Henry is fully recovered from last year’s injury, and he will be the focal point of the Titans’ offense again in 2022. Henry’s insane pace is not sustainable for an entire season, but he is still one of the best fantasy football running backs in 2022. The Titans are not projected to be a great team this season, but Henry will be the focal point in the offense with a TON of touches. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Henry is the RB4 at pick 5.
I can’t wait to watch Derrick Henry play football again this season 🔥
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) August 26, 2022
13. More. Days.
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/OLFpf7w9Ao
Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce has entered the 2022 preseason hall of fame! After a strong training camp and preseason, Pierce is expected to be the Houston Texans’ starting running back. That has caused him to move up the draft boards as we finish the preseason. Pierce did not have a full workload in college, but that does not mean he cannot handle it. I would just caution you not to let the hype make you overdraft Pierce. He played great in the preseason when we know the defense is not playing all of their starters and they keep the scheme “vanilla” to not tip off anything for the regular season. Also, he is on the Houston Texans. Their offensive line is below average and they do not project to score many touchdowns. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Pierce is the RB40 at pick 110, but I expect that will be closer to pick 70 in your drafts as ADP catches up to the excitement. I have zero issues drafting Pierce in the 9th round, but I like too many other players to consider him in the 6th or 7th round.
All of Dameon Pierce’s touches Preseason Week 4. pic.twitter.com/B5lXWG5MA6
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) August 26, 2022
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry was on pace to be the RB1 through eight games last year, but Jonathan Taylor was THE RB1 in 2021. He had a great fantasy football season scoring 20.8 points per game in half-PPR. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat so you cannot project him to score 20 total touchdowns, but he should easily hit double-digits. Taylor’s best chance for continued improvement is his receiving game. He had 40 catches on 51 targets last year, which is a respectable number for his workload. Carson Wentz is not known for passing to his running backs, and now Matt Ryan is the Colts’ quarterback. Taylor has the opportunity to have 50+ receptions in 2022 to help him repeat as the RB1. Taylor’s best ability is his availability. Knock on wood, but Taylor did not miss games in college and he doesn’t miss games or practices in the NFL. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Taylor is the RB1 at pick 1. He is a great running back and feels like the “safest” 1.01 due to his lack of injury history.
Travis Etienne
It is never good to be injured, but Etienne did not miss much during his rookie season because the Urban Meyer Jaguars were a dumpster fire in 2021. All reports tell us Etienne is fully healthy going into this season and he looks explosive. Etienne was a dominant running back in college, and he is reunited with his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars’ offense will be average at best, but Etienne is the most explosive player on the team. Some are concerned about James Robinson taking away touches because he was not put on the PUP list. He tore his Achilles tendon at the end of the 2021 season. I understand Cam Akers came back in the same season as his injury, but he did not play well. Even if Robinson plays, I do not expect him to play well this season. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Etienne is the RB20 at pick 44. That puts Etienne in the “running back dead zone,” but he is a fine draft pick in the mid to late 4th round. I do not recommend drafting him as your RB1, but he will be a solid RB2 on your roster.
All of Travis Etienne’s touches.
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) August 21, 2022
NFL Preseason Week 3. pic.twitter.com/xp7FxINCY8
Best Value at the Running Back Position
Follow @KeithFlemmingAnyone who saw my Twitter handle above, meaning I was responsible for this part of the AFC South Preview, and had been listening to me on podcasts on the Fantasy In Frames Podcast Network, or read my profile on this player in April. Had to know the answer to this for me is Dameon Pierce. I had Pierce as my #3 running back in this draft class. I’m honestly surprised I was in the minority of being that high on Pierce due to his yards per touch and outrageous touchdown-to-touch ratio (13.4% his senior year). I moved him up a spot in my rookie running back rankings once we knew the player’s destination.
The Texans are in the middle of a rebuild, younger guys will get a chance on this team because the Texans will want to see what players they have moving forward. However, I’ve said since draft night that he is the best back in Houston. He’s competing with an older utility back in Rex Burkhead, and his competition for lead back is with Marlon Mack, a guy who hasn’t played meaningful snaps in almost 3 full seasons due to injuries. Pierce reminds me a lot of Marshawn Lynch with his bruising running style, nose for the endzone, and how his teammates love him.
Pierce was graded by PFF the highest graded running back in college football last season. A reminder that Breece Hall, someone most experts believe is a sure thing, did not grade as high. His 0.45 forced missed tackle per attempt also led the nation. Pierce is an underrated pass catcher, he’s played and looked like the starter throughout the preseason. Despite his ADP rising, it’s still in the mid to high 30’s as of today. He is the best value at this position in the AFC South and one of the best values in fantasy drafts this year.
Wide Receiver Summary
Follow @bill_mustafaAlthough an underwhelming group of Wide Receivers compared to the other AFC divisions, the South does offer some fantasy relevance at the position, especially in Indianapolis, where we could see the emergence of Micheal Pittman Jr as a WR1.
Michael Pittman
The big-bodied former USC pass-catcher impressed during his sophomore NFL season, leading the Colts in receptions, receiving yards & receiving TDs. He will also benefit from an upgrade at QB, as the Colts acquired Matt Ryan from the Falcons after shipping Carson Wentz off to the capital. Ryan has facilitated a top-12 WR in eleven of his thirteen seasons, and Pittman Jr could be the beneficiary of number twelve. With rookie Alec Pierce and the oft-injured Parris Campbell battling it out for WR2 duties, Pittman Jr should again be light on competition for targets in this Indianapolis offense.
Treylon Burks/Robert Woods
Over to the back-to-back division winners in Tennessee, who will be rolling out an all-new WR pairing in Week 1 after releasing Julio Jones and then stunning the NFL world with a Draft night trade of A. J. Brown. The first-round pick they acquired for Brown was spent immediately on his replacement as the Titans selected Arkansas weapon, Treylon Burks. The 22-year-old was comped to his predecessor often during the pre-draft process, but unfavorable reports from camp and an inconsistent pre-season have quashed the belief he can be a plug-and-play replacement for Brown.
The veteran addition of Robert Woods to replace the veteran loss of Julio Jones looks to be an intelligent move for Tennessee. Woods has played second-fiddle for the vast majority of his career. He may be required to lead the Titans’ new look receiving core from the front in ’22, though, until Burks gets up to speed, which could take a little longer than most thought. Although I hardly expect Bobby to pull up any trees in this Derrick Henry-led offense, he is the Titan WR I’m targeting, especially at his current WR44 price.
Brandin Cooks
In Houston, it remains Brandin Cooks and little else. The former Saint, Patriot & Ram had almost 60(!) more receptions than any other Texan in 2021. With the sad news that John Metchie will miss the entirety of his rookie season as he battles Leukemia, little has been added to challenge Cooks and his near 27% target share. His current WR23 ADP seems like fair value for a player whose offense runs through him.
Christian Kirk
Lastly, to sunny Jacksonville, where the back-to-back holders of the first overall pick stunned/upset the football world by giving former Arizona Cardinal Christian Kirk a 4-year, $72 million deal with $37 million guaranteed. Many thought Kirk had done little to deserve such a contract and the ramifications for the rest of the NFL were clear as multiple high-profile WRs signed huge deals and extensions.
Kirk will be WR1 for sophomore QB and former number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence, and reports from Jags camp are positive. The two appear to have formed a connection, and Kirk is an easy projection to lead the Jags in receptions & yards this season. With an ADP outside the top-40 Wide Receivers, I like Kirk at his current value, and I am actively targeting him from the 9th round onwards.
Best Value at the Wide Receiver Position
Follow @JKlonowskiNFLThe perennially underrated Robert Woods looks to be a value once again in his new surroundings in Tennessee. After an injury-ravaged 2021, the former Rams receiver is ranked as the WR43, according to FantasyPros’ ECR, providing a huge value to fantasy managers.
Woods had been a consistent fantasy producer while in Los Angeles. In each of his last four seasons, Woods scored at least 12.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR, scoring according to FantasyData. Before last year’s truncated campaign, Woods had seen at least 129 targets in each of his last three seasons.
The question marks this year surround his role in this run-first offense and his recovery from injury. After suffering an ACL injury midway through the 2021 season, Woods appears to be back without any limitations. The former USC receiver recently stated that “he doesn’t think about his surgically repaired knee anymore.” After several reports of Woods having a strong camp, it appears any previous fears over lingering effects of the injury can be alleviated.
Although he may have moved on from McVay’s fantasy-friendly system, the lack of target competition surrounding Woods should mean his floor isn’t lowered too much. This offense will still literally and figuratively run through Derrick Henry, with the only real competition in the passing lying in the form of Westbrook-Ikhine and two rookies. While we may find Treylon Burks’ pre-season issues are somewhat overblown, at this stage, it appears the WR1 spot on the Titans is Woods’ to lose. At his current cost, he’s a tremendous value late in drafts.
Tight End Summary
Follow @Charli3TheThirdAustin Hooper (Tennessee Titans)
There have been a lot of talks through training camp about the connection between Ryan Tannehill and Austin Hooper. I could see Hooper as a solid TE2 in fantasy lineups. He went from being a top 10 tight end in Atlanta to barely making the top 25 in Cleveland so draft him at your own risk.
Jelani Woods (Indianapolis Colts)
Here is someone I am very excited about. Coming out of the University of Virginia, Jelani Woods has some of the best PlayerProfiler scores I have ever seen. 89th percentile 40-yard dash, 94th percentile speed score, 95th percentile burst score, 82nd percentile agility score, and 98th percentile catch radius. A very similar profile to Kyle Pitts, whose QB last year was Matt Ryan. Jelani Woods’ QB this year? Matt Ryan! Woods’ only competition is Mo Alie-Cox, who is barely a Top 30 TE. I can see Woods being a late-season waiver wire target and then soon enough earn that #1 tight spot for the Colts.
Brevin Jordan (Houston Texans)
Jordan is nothing more than a late-round flier. He may have upside being the presumed TE1 for Davis Mills and the Texans, but he is very unproven. He may be an option in deeper leagues, but for the majority of fantasy managers, don’t bother.
Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars)
You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink it. Evan Engram is not good. A change of scenery won’t do anything. NO!
Best Value at the Tight End Position
Follow @KeithFlemmingJelani Woods TE ADP 44
The AFC South is seriously lacking when it comes to tight ends. Therefore I’m going with a rookie, with a lot of talent, in a good situation, and most wouldn’t even consider drafting Jelani Woods.
Woods, at 6 foot 7 inches 253 pounds with a 82-inch wingspan, is a monster of a target. In his senior year, he transferred from Oklahoma State (he was predominately used as a blocking TE there) to Virginia and had a breakout year. He caught 44 passes for 598 yards and 8 touchdowns in 11 games. With the Colts lacking receiving options outside of Michael Pittman and rookie Alec Pearce, despite being behind Mo Allie Cox and Kylen Granson at the tight end position to start the preseason. The fact Woods is a massive target, something new Colts starting QB Matt Ryan has always thrived throwing to(Kyle Pitts, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzales), and the fact the Colts spent a 3rd round pick in selecting him. I think Woods will be a breakout player in this Colts offense. Especially when you consider that Matt Ryan was 3rd in the league in percentage of pass attempts to tight ends, I know you might think well they had Kyle Pitts and little else, which is true, but in 2020 Ryan was 6th. Ryan has thrown at least 70 pass attempts to tight ends every year in the NFL, and 90 or more in all but three.
Woods is the tight end you want to own on the Colts and a nightmare for opposing defenses to cover in the red zone. Considering you can draft Woods with your last pick in the draft if you like, he’s got a great chance to carve a role in an offense led by Ryan, who loves throwing to tight ends and big targets. I have Jelani Woods at ADP 44 as the best value TE in the AFC South.
Linebacker Summary
Follow @natemarcumShaquille Leonard (Indianapolis Colts)- Ask 100 different IDP analysts who their #1 LB would be with an entire season of games, and I would have to think that the LB formerly known as Darius would be the consensus #1. Since Leonard exploded onto the IDP scene as a rookie in 2018, there has been little doubt about his enormous upside. That rookie season consisted of 163 tackles, 16.5 TFL, 7 sacks, 8 PD, 8 QB hits, 2 FF, 2 FR, and 2 INTs. Needless to say, he crushed the competition that year, finishing as the LB1 by a 3fppg margin…in only 15 games.
If there is one area of Leonard’s game that I would like to improve, it would be durability. Since 2018, he has missed seven games and never finished below LB9 overall! On the cusp of his first 16-game season, Leonard already has an uphill battle on his hands. Recently placed on the PUP for offseason back surgery, the timeline for return is a little cloudy. While this uncertainty can wreak havoc on our drafts, it’s nice to know. With Gus Bradley as the new DC, I wouldn’t worry about his production regardless of DC. Be aware, but maybe you can get Leonard at a discount this draft season?
Update: The Colts removed Leonard from the PUP on 8/30. While this is significant, there is still a moderate chance that he is limited in the first week or two. I will personally move him up a spot or two in the rankings but still have a modicum of concern for any LB who has back surgery.
Bobby Okereke (Indianapolis Colts)- Often ignored in drafts and overshadowed by Leonard, Okereke was a sneaky source of LB2 production in 2021. Playing in a Matt Eberflus defense has taught Okereke to be conditioned due to his (HITS) system, which emphasizes high-intensity practices. Last season, Okereke quietly put up 132 tackles, one sack, and 2 INT. Suitable for a finish as the LB19. This season, with the uncertainty of when Leonard will return, Okereke will be asked to pick up even more of the slack. I see a situation where Okereke returns LB2 value at a discount cost.
Foye Oluokon (Jacksonville Jaguars)- Foye Oluokon recorded the 7th most combined tackles in NFL history in 2021. As a result, he signed a mega-deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars to be a staple in the middle of their rebuilding team. 192 total tackles is a lofty number and one that I don’t expect him to repeat. No, I don’t believe that is an inflammatory statement about the 2022 outlook. I think it is fair to assume that there will be tackle regression, but even with a reduction of 20%, he still would have been 7th in tackles. What I do expect is for Oluokon to be a low-end LB1 /LB2. My main concern with Foye is that he didn’t excel at any facet of LB besides being around the ball, which is crucial to IDP scoring. Don’t expect a repeat of last year, and sit back and watch someone else draft for last year’s production.
David Long (Tennessee Titans)- One of the more underrated LB among IDP circles. Long didn’t have much publicity before the 2021 season, but he established himself early in the season. It only took until Wk.2 for Long to take over for Jayon Brown at MLB. Long held that job until Wk10 after suffering a hamstring injury that would cost him 6 weeks of action. It was damning because before his injury (Week 2-9), Long was the LB16 overall. With a firm grasp on the job and a clean bill of health, Long is primed to be a sneaky pick in upcoming drafts. Many fantasy managers will just look at the small sample size and chalk his 2021 up to a fluke, but if we dig a little deeper, we see a solid contributor worthy of an LB2 draft price. From Wk2-9, he was tied for 8th in solo tackles (42) and led all LBs in PDs (5). While others sleep on Long, scoop him up and plug him into your LB3/LB4 slot.
Christian Kirksey (Houston Texans)- After leaving for the Green Bay Packers in 2020, Kirksey returned to Houston in 2021 with hopes of a healthy rebound season. While he did have a rebound, it wasn’t at full health. Far removed from his days with the Browns, Kirksey did demonstrate some viable IDP skills. Despite not playing from Wk 9-12, Kirksey still totaled 93 tackles, 6 TFL, and 8 PDs. In a Lovie Smith-style defense, there is a good chance that he should be put into a position to return excellent value, but health is always a risk, especially since he hasn’t played more than 13 games since 2017. With little investment needed, there is a good chance that he returns LB3 value with a true 3-down role.
Best Value at the Linebacker Position
Follow @jorgebedwardsFor me, the answer for the best value at linebacker in the division is David Long. In 10 games last year, he posted a tackle rate of 12.1%, which was good enough for being the LB33 amongst ILBs who played a minimum of 500 snaps last season (roughly at least 10 games). His 13.0 PPG in Fantasy Pros Scoring in that time span was right up there with the likes of Bobby Wagner, Fred Warner, and C.J. Mosley. His 12.1 PPG ranked him as a low-end LB2 in 2021. Do yourself a favor and grab him in your drafts. It’s not often a linebacker with this type of fantasy output potential can be found so late in your IDP drafts.
Defensive Back Summary
Follow @natemarcumKevin Byard (Tennessee Titans)- The Tennessee Titans hit absolute paydirt in 2018 when they drafted Kevin Byard with the 64th pick. Since 2018, Byard has played in every game and, more impressively, 99% of every snap! This consistency contributes to my overall evaluation and elevated ranking in IDP. If you go back and look at his production since entering the league, he has the following ranks among all DB
- 5th in tackles
- 5th in INT
- 20th in PD
- 13th in QB hits
- 25th in Sacks
He was the DB6 in 2021 and has never finished below the DB25 overall. With Byard’s presence at the line of scrimmage and his ability to contribute across the board, I feel confident that Byard will return safe value in your upcoming draft.
Kenny Moore (Indianapolis Colts)- One of the lone CB off the board early in most IDP drafts, Kenny Moore has become a unicorn of sorts. In most leagues, the CB position is too volatile to invest an early pick in drafts. But since carving out a significant role with the Colts over the past two years, he has made an enormous impact. Moore has finished as the DB2 and the DB9 over the past two years and has some lofty statistics to support these finishes.
- 3rd in Solo Tackles
- 12th in Total Tackles
- 6th in INT
- 8th in PD
- 7th in Tackles for Loss
While the Colts do have a new DC, it is yet to be determined if Moore will have the same role as he has had for the past two years. Despite the enormous production, fantasy managers still seem hesitant to pull the trigger, and considering the typical volatility, it is warranted. I am here to tell you that with the limited investment needed, the returns could be plentiful.
Nick Cross (Indianapolis Colts)- While most of these blurbs are about the “must-draft” players from the team, I am writing this one because, by season’s end, he will be on the “why didn’t I draft him” list. Nick Cross has been a Fantasy In Frames favorite since the news broke that Khari Willis retired. Nick Cross isn’t just a favorite because of the situation, it also began with his pedigree. The blend of size, speed, and play recognition made him a solid dynasty target, but with the clearer path to snaps, the intrigue has grown. Entering training camp, Cross was in a battle with Rodney McLeod. Leaving training camp, Cross appears to have secured the SS role!
We have seen in preseason that Cross can be a difference maker. PFF graded Cross at 89.9 overall (3rd among S). His quality tackling and skills in coverage are as solid a baseline for IDP production.
Jalen Pitre (Houston Texans)- I don’t think it would be fair to mention Nick Cross and not do the same for Jalen Pitre. Another rookie in a full-time role with tremendous potential for a rookie. Pitre, like Cross, has made an impact in training camp and preseason. Lovie Smith mentioned that Pitre will start in Week 1, and if his preseason tape is any indication, he will be an immediate waiver wire addition for Week 2. Not for you tho! You will already have him on your team! The run-stopping prowess and coverage ability could lead to a very good season, not just for a rookie.
Best Value at the Defensive Back Position
Follow @JorgeBEdwardsYou don’t need to have faith in the Lord to…….hmm. Sorry, thought I could tie God and the cross with Nick Cross and no matter how hard I tried there was no analogy I could make that would make me feel safe from a lightening bolt coming to strike me down. Nate made all the points I could ever make. A playermaker all throughout college and in training camp, Cross is the epitome of value at the DB position as a strong safety whose role it is to play near the line of scrimmage. Target him in the later rounds of your draft and you might have a high DB2 on your roster you never thought you could have.
Defensive Lineman/EDGE Summary
Follow @natemarcumJosh Allen (Jacksonville Jaguars)- Josh Allen burst onto the scene in 2019 with 10.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL, and 23 QB hits despite playing only 634 snaps. After an amazing rookie season, Allen had a disappointing 2020, with only 2.5 sacks and 2.5 TFL while only playing 8 games. Fantasy managers were wise to ignore the 2020 season and see Allen for what he is; 6’5’’ with 4.63/40-time speed! Fast forward to 2021, and Allen delivered all that managers could have wanted with 71 tackles, 12 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 4 PD, and QB hits.
When evaluating Allen for 2022 drafts, as with other Edge rushers, you need to understand your positional eligibility. In some leagues where Allen is only LB eligible, I will have him much lower than if he is a DL. While the tackle volume for an OLB is good, it makes his value entirely sack dependant. Luckily for most, he still has DL eligibility and should be one of the first DLs taken in 2022 drafts. Currently ranked as my DL12, the blend of size, speed, and improvements to the Jags’ defense fascinates me with intrigue for the “real” Josh Allen!
Travon Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars)- Travon Walker is one of the more intriguing rookies in IDP this year. The 1st player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, there were many skeptics, including myself. After an exciting training camp and solid preseason performances, I am starting to believe that this year could be special. Walker has already recorded the 1st sack of his NFL career and has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff. While there definitely could be some speed bumps along the way, the pass-rush prowess he has demonstrated is a solid building block. The talk that has my attention is about Jacksonville moving him inside to the interior line on 3rd downs. This intrigues me because of the potential snaps he may see as a rookie, plus the increased tackle volume to add to the sack totals.
Kwity Paye (Indianapolis Colts)- Paye was one of my favorite targets heading into the 2022 season. While I still believe in the talent, the knee injury he suffered in training camp has me worried about the investment needed to return value. The 6’4’’/270lb Defensive End from Michigan was just getting his feet wet in the NFL when he suffered a hamstring injury in Wk 4. It was upon his return that he was very productive, recording a sack in each game from Wk 10-12. While the year-end totals weren’t eye-popping (32 tackles, 4 sacks/3 TFL/10 QB hits), the 15% win rate (per PFF) wasn’t far off from some of the most explosive pass-rushers in the NFL. While I still believe in the upside from the 2nd year starter, I have reservations about his draft capital. If you can grab him as your DL3/DL4, sit back and enjoy the upside.
Jeffery Simmons (Tennessee Titans)- Entering his 4th season in the NFL, the Mississippi State Monster is looking for another season of havoc. Simmons had his best statistical season in 2021, recording 54 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 12 TFL, and 16 QB hits. An all-around talent at DT, Simmons was one of the most dominant run-stoppers and pass rushers from an interior lineman. If you play in a league that requires a DT, Simmons could easily return amazing value with his versatility and durability shown over the past two years!
Best Value at the Defensive Lineman/EDGE Position
Follow @JorgeBEdwardsTravon Walker, for me, is the best value in this division at DL/EDGE. It is not often a number one overall pick in the NFL, who is a pass rusher, finds himself in a position to play on the other side with a dominant pass rusher the likes of Josh Allen. This will undoubtedly lead to more one-on-one matchups for Walker, giving him plenty of upside this season.
Thanks for reading our 2022 Fantasy Football Preview of the AFC South.
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