2022 Dynasty Target: Kadarius Toney

Today, we keep the dynasty target train moving as we break down our next recommended dynasty target, Kadarius Toney!

Rookie Season Review

Kadarius Toney was the 4^th wide receiver drafted in the 2021 NFL Draft in the 1^st round at 20^th overall to the New York Giants. Several will say that was a reach by the Giants, but it is imperative to recognize Toney’s draft capital. Unfortunately, Toney’s rookie season was close to a train wreck. He dealt with several off-the-field issues and on-the-field injuries. He had one MASSIVE fantasy performance in Week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys with 29.6 PPR points from 10 receptions (13 targets) and 189 yards. Toney was a WR1 for 10% of his games played (Week 5) and a WR3+ for the other 90% of his games played. He did not help anyone in fantasy football in 2021 because you probably didn’t start Toney for his one massive game in Week 5. He was inactive for 41% of the season. Toney needs to drastically improve his availability by staying healthy to be fantasy relevant.

8️⃣9️⃣ days until Giants football with Kadarius Toney! pic.twitter.com/BfU46cBwOV
— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) June 14, 2022

2022 Expectations

We know Kadarius Toney is an athletic specimen (97^th percentile burst score), but speed will only get you so far in the NFL (not far at all). He was a quarterback in high school and was recruited to be a quarterback in college. Toney converted to wide receiver and didn’t have his breakout until senior year. Toney has tons of potential as he continues to learn how to be an NFL receiver with his raw athletic ability. However, there is no guarantee he puts it all together to be a fantasy-relevant player. It can be unfair to judge a player from just his rookie season. Toney must take significant strides in 2022 to prove his potential is legitimate.

According to DLF, Toney’s ADP spiked from October 2021 to November 2021 (after his Week 5 game) from WR58 to WR34. Since his ADP has been steadily declining and is currently WR50. Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Lockett are drafted right before Toney. Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow, and David Bell are drafted right after him.

The New York Giants have overhauled their coaching staff for 2022. There is an excitement that the new head coach, Brian Daboll, will reinvigorate a stagnate Giants offense after we saw Daboll help the Buffalo Bills be a top offense in the NFL. If Daniel Jones does not perform this season, there will be a new quarterback starting for the Giants in 2023.

According to Reception Perception, Toney is not a good route runner. He still has plenty to learn to exploit defenses with his athleticism. Even though he was awful against man and press coverage last season, he was above average against the zone. As a slot receiver that gives him a decent foundation to build from to be a more consistent receiver. The key to Toney’s fantasy value will be Daboll creating an offensive scheme to highlight Toney’s strengths while he grows as a receiver.

92% of 1st round WR’s to average 2.00 YPRR in their rookie year later hit a Top 12 season.

Kadarius Toney hit a 2.00 YPRR as a rookie…
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) June 20, 2022

What Should You Do?

Kadarius Toney carries plenty of risks because he could be an NFL 1st-round bust. Fortunately, his dynasty cost is not prohibitive. The risk for your dynasty roster is minimal, and the reward could be immense. If you draft Toney in a dynasty start-up, you should not expect him to be consistently on your starting roster. He will most likely ride your bench all of 2022. If he has some spike games then his market value could increase enough for you to trade him away at a profit if you do not believe he will sustain his performance.

If this isn’t a dynasty start-up, then you must trade for Toney to acquire him. Based on recent trades, you could try to get Toney for a 2022 3^rd round rookie pick or a low-ranked QB, like Mitchell Trubisky, in a Superflex league. Every league will value players differently. Throw out some trades for Toney because you should not need to give up any significant assets to get the trade accepted.

Toney has NFL 1^st-round draft capital, immense athleticism, and is relatively inexpensive to acquire. You should take the risk and target Kadarius Toney to be on your dynasty roster. The high-ceiling potential is worth the risk. You do not win dynasty championships without taking calculated risks.