2022 Dynasty Target: Irv Smith Jr

2022 Dynasty Target Irv Smith Fantasy In Frames

Today, we continue our series on players to target in your dynasty leagues with Irv Smith Jr.

On paper the 2019 tight end class appeared to be stellar; set to take the league by storm. It included a number of athletic pass-catching potential playmakers – spearheaded by TJ Hockenson selected in the top ten. The third of those taken, Irv Smith Jr, has until now had a quiet, injury-plagued start to his NFL career but could not be a tremendous dynasty target. Could the tide be turning on this talented tight end?

Background

After a quiet sophomore season at Alabama, Smith returned to see his production jump in his junior season, recording 44 receptions for 710 yards and seven touchdowns. This vaulted him into the second round of the NFL draft where he was selected by the Minnesota Vikings.

His first two years in the NFL, however, were fairly uneventful for fantasy. In his rookie year hit just 311 yards and touchdowns from 36 receptions (47 targets). There was a slight step up in fantasy production in year two, largely thanks to a small jump in touchdowns, despite similar underlying numbers. Smith recorded 365 yards and five touchdowns from 30 receptions and 43 targets.

With Rudolph out the door last off-season following his release, a breakout campaign for Smith appeared to be on the cards. This was suddenly curtailed by a torn meniscus injury in September, which ruled Smith out for the entire year.

The suggestion of a Smith breakout was clearly well-placed given the emergence of backup Tyler Conklin in 2021 in his absence. The former fifth-round pick emerged as a weekly starting option and became a regular contributor to the offense. Conklin had a career year, turning his 61 receptions from 87 targets into 593 receiving yards and three touchdowns. This ranked joint-ninth in receptions and 12^th in targets amongst tight-ends in 2021.

Current Situation

So what does 2022 look like for Smith? The first thing to note is that nine months on from his injury, Smith is back to 100%. Now with Tyler Conklin leaving in free agency, a significant role has now opened up once again.

Without any notable competition at tight-end and limited receivers outside of Jefferson and Thielen, Smith looks likely to be the third option in the passing game. Conklin secured around a 15% target share in 2021, a figure that Smith could easily replicate this coming year.

There is also clear potential for Smith to see a significant share of red zone usage, as demonstrated by Conklin’s usage last season. In 2021 Conklin saw 16 targets from within the 20-yard line, three more than Thielen and four fewer than Jefferson. In our limited viewing of Smith, we have already seen him have success finding the end zone, scoring five touchdowns in 2020.

A new era in Minnesota could also spell good things for Smith.

“We’re not a run-first team anymore”

These were the words of Justin Jefferson, speaking to NFL Network. The arrival of former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell should help the whole offense take a step forward, after years of having Mike Zimmer at the helm. Early indications are promising for Smith with O’Connell stating he will “be a major part of what we do” to St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Chris Tomasson.

In the 4 games without Kyle Rudolph in the lineup in 2020 Irv Smith Jr. averaged 12.8 FPPG.

That PPG average would have ranked 4th on the season. No Kyle Rudolph or Tyler Conklin this year.

It’s Irv Smith Jr. SZN. pic.twitter.com/VWB1FSXiEf
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) June 27, 2022

Outlook

While his 2022 prospects look promising, what about the future…this is dynasty after all.

Beyond this year, the outlook of the former Alabama prospect could be even more interesting given his contract situation. He is now entering the final year of his rookie deal so will either be signing an extension with the Vikings or testing the market in early next year. Either way, if he is able to take a step forward this season he will likely be entering his age 24 season with a multi-million dollar contract. Most importantly, how often do we see players have a career year when their earnings are on the line?

With all this upside it’s therefore surprising to see his average draft position where it currently stands. Dynasty League Football’s June ADP shows Smith as the current TE18, putting him behind the likes of Albert Okwuegbunam and Trey McBride. At this cost, he represents a great dynasty target for a team to acquire a high-upside TE2, without needing to rely on him on a weekly basis.