This week we kick things off by looking at our first dynasty target, Derek Carr!
<Morpheus voice> “What if I told you a perennially underrated fantasy football quarterback – a consistent QB2 in Superflex formats whose DLF positional ADP dropped to 29.58 in 2020 despite finishing as QB17 (per Fantasy Pros) the year before – was getting his favorite weapon back healthy, was getting an elite WR and college teammate via trade, and was just given a lucrative contract extension?” Would you take the red pill? Well, leaving aside that the “what if I told you” phrase does not actually appear in The Matrix, if you took the red pill, you will be targeting David Carr this offseason in your Superflex dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Background
Derek Carr was drafted in the second round (36th overall) by the then Oakland Raiders in 2014. He has surpassed 4,000 passing yards in each of the last four seasons and has thrown for 20 or more touchdowns in all but one season when he finished with 19 in 2018. Excluding his rookie year of 2014, his lowest finish was QB18 in 2018, and he had two QB1 years – 2016 when he finished QB10, and this past 2021 season when he finished QB12, with favorite target Darren Waller missing six games due to injury. Carr is often credited with being a good deep ball QB and a clutch performer. To that point, for you stat lovers, only 4.4% of pass attempts since 2014 (when Carr entered the league) have earned a “big-time throw” grade from PFF, and Carr has surpassed that mark in five out of his eight seasons. Carr has continued to post usable fantasy production but has not, for the most part, had enough red pill-ers.
Current Situation
Carr enters the 2022 season with a healthy Darren Waller, a dangerous pass-catching TE, and another reliable target in Hunter Renfrow. And this offseason, the team added Davante Adams to his array of weapons. Adams, while perhaps declining as a dynasty asset, is an elite receiver who has a tremendous ability to get open, even in tight and double coverage. He will likely eat into Waller’s targets a bit, but he will be an integral part of the offense. Even with a slow start his first couple of years in the NFL, Adams’ career mark for passer rating when he is targeted is 113.6 (PFF). Adams’ presence is an instant upgrade to Carr’s value. That value also gets a bump from his contract extension, which would ostensibly keep him in Las Vegas through 2025. It is a vote of confidence and situational certainty, which can only increase your comfort in pursuing Carr as a startup or trade target. And all this does not even include the Raiders spending good draft capital on a WR – less likely with the addition of Adams –
Outlook
So what can we expect from Carr moving forward? Currently, I have Carr ranked as my dynasty QB15, which reflects a post-trade bump. But as far as this 2022 season goes, I would not be surprised if Carr managed a top 12 finish, and depending on several factors, there is a non-zero chance I will have him ranked in the dynasty top 12 after this season.
If you are in a startup, Carr’s a riser, but his April DLF overall ADP still puts at pick 13.09, which I think is still a bargain. I would target him a little earlier anticipating there are a few managers in the room who also see the arrow up, and I would want to secure him.
If you are looking to acquire Carr in a trade, the Adams bump is likely built into the ask by now, but you might be able to still find a reasonable price, especially considering that price is likely going to increase when Carr and Adams start producing on the field. At the time this is being written, Dynasty Trade Calculator has Carr almost exactly equal to the 2022 1.05 or Diontae Johnson in a standard 12-team, Superflex, PPR, tight end premium format. If I was selling, I would want more than that in return. A high-end QB2 in a Superflex is valuable, and Carr’s arrow is up. I still think more than the 1.05 or Diontae qualifies as “a reasonable price,” though. Of course, if you are in a rebuild situation, Carr is not a likely target for you, unless you think you can flip him for more than you paid once the season starts.
So hopefully by now, that red pill is kicking in and you are now awakened to the truth about Derek Carr, Neo.
Thanks for checking out our Dynasty Target article on Derek Carr. Over the course of the summer make sure to click here for more Dynasty Target articles discussing players for you to acquire this season!
For all your other Dynasty needs, tune in to “Dynasty365“, our weekly Dynasty Podcast, as part of the Fantasy In Frames Podcast Network.
