2022 Dynasty Target: AJ Dillon

Today, we continue our series on players to target in your dynasty leagues with AJ Dillon – the man, the myth, the quads.

The bruising running back who broke rushing records at Boston College has become an increasingly important part of the Green Bay offense. The Davante Adams trade may now signal an even larger workload going forwards for the Derrick Henry replica. As mentioned in our running back riser article earlier this year after an improved sophomore campaign AJ Dillon looks set for another successful season ahead and the possibility of an even better 2023.

Background

Dillon had a fairly quiet start to his NFL career, seeing limited touches behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. He recorded only 46 carries for 242 yards and two touchdowns in his 11 games, adding 21 yards from his two receptions. He did, however, demonstrate why the Packers valued him so highly in his one game as the featured back. In week 16 of his rookie season against the Titans, Dillon turned his 21 rushes into 124 yards and two touchdowns.

The departure of Jamaal Williams in free agency provided Dillon with plenty more opportunities in his second season. He also slowly saw an uptick in workload as the season progressed, as the backfield with Aaron Jones increasingly became a committee.

In 2021 Dillon rushed 187 times, converting those opportunities into 803 yards and five touchdowns. It was over the second half of the season in which we saw his touches rise and more consistent fantasy production. From week 8 onwards ‘The Mayor of Door County’ saw at least ten touches in all but one game, including seven games with at least 15 touches.

all the michael turner vibes but with receiving ability. good luck dealing with this in 2022 I wasn't an aj dillon fan coming out of college but it's hard to deny the breakout is coming pic.twitter.com/AjqA1rEqcc
— Ray G 🏁 (@RayGQue) June 17, 2022

Current Situation

So what does the future hold for the man nicknamed ‘Quadzilla’? One key aspect of his fantasy success was being part of an explosive offense, being led by Aaron Rodgers. After yet another period of turmoil, earlier this year Rodgers confirmed he would be staying with the Pack. The Packers ranked second in offensive DVOA last season, according to Football Outsiders. The team was also top-10 in both offensive yards and points scored, per Pro Football Reference. Even without Adams, Dillon should have plenty of opportunities to produce for dynasty managers, particularly given the number of positive game scripts he should see.

It is also apparent he is becoming an integral part of the offense. Speaking at the NFL Combine, Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur called Dillon “a premier back”. He added that “AJ is just kind of scratching the surface of what he can become”. The blockbuster trade of star wide receiver Davante Adams may also indicate a more run-heavy approach, leaning on the running back tandem of Jones and Dillon.

It was also evident the team wanted to utilize him in the ground game over Aaron Jones as the season progressed. Over the first eight weeks, Jones saw at least 13 carries in all but two games, hitting that mark just once during the rest of the regular season. Given his size, Dillon has also regularly been used in the red zone. Dillon saw ten rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line last season, versus six for Aaron Jones.

He was also an extremely effective rusher when called upon. Dillon ranked first amongst running backs with at least 100 rushes in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate, which determines the player’s consistency – measuring the amount of successful rushes versus the total number.

AJ Dillon was such a nerd stats god last year

1st in Success rate (accounts for down/distance)
3rd in ROE (% of runs that exceeded expected value)
8th in DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement)
1st in RWHLLAHMT (rushes where he looked like a human monster truck)
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) June 16, 2022

Outlook

While he will remain in a time-share with Aaron Jones this coming year, it is clear both are held in high regard. Aaron Jones showed very few signs of slowing down last season. However, as a 27-year-old running back, the days of seeing more than 200 rushing attempts are likely behind him. Dillon also possesses sky-high upside should Jones ever succumb to injury.

It is also important to note that Jones recently restructured his contract, meaning he will have a cap hit of just over $20m and a dead cap of around $9.5m in 2023. As a result, this is why Dillon looks to be an ideal dynasty target. With two seasons left on his rookie deal, not only will his opportunities continue to grow this coming season, but there is a good chance Dillon could be the lead back going into 2023.

With all that in mind, what is his dynasty value? AJ Dillon is currently the consensus RB18, according to the Fantasy In Frames dynasty rankings. Meanwhile, he ranks as RB23 in Dynasty League Football’s June startup ADP – just ahead of Leonard Fournette and Josh Jacobs. He is also marginally behind his teammate Aaron Jones. At this price, for a player on the rise with a seemingly secure future ahead, Dillon is a great dynasty target for contenders and rebuilders alike.