With the 88th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers traded up to take Trey Sermon, running back out of Ohio State.
This was a shocking pick for the 49ers who already have a crowded running back room and so needless to say reactions were pretty split from excitement and hope to assumed lack of playing time and sadness for yet another top running back prospect. That being said, Sermon actually may have found himself in a solid landing spot and his path to fantasy relevance may not be as blocked as people think. Therefore, in our latest 4-EYED Rookie Snapshot, let’s check to see how Trey Sermon’s value may still yet be saved.
The College Years
Sermon was drafted out of Ohio State as that is where his career wrapped up, but he spent his first three seasons at the University of Oklahoma. Breaking out as a freshman with then quarterback Baker Mayfield at the helm, Sermon got his collegiate career off to a hot start. Sermon’s first season saw him rush 121 times for 744 yards and five touchdowns, adding 139 yards on 16 receptions and two additional touchdowns receiving. His sophomore season continued his momentum while playing with Kyler Murray. Sermon set career highs in carries (164), yards (947), scrimmage yards (1,128), and rushing touchdowns (13). His junior season he only suited up for nine games with Jalen Hurts and only carried the ball 54 times.
In 2020, Sermon transferred to Ohio State where he played with Justin Fields. In his final season, Sermon averaged 7.5 yards per carry on 116 attempts with 870 yards and four rushing touchdowns. While fairly quiet through his first four games, Sermon finished on fire with 70 carries for 636 yards and four touchdowns in his final three games (he totaled one carry in the national championship game and then sat out due to injury).
The Short Term
You may have noticed that I made a point to mention the quarterbacks that Trey Sermon played with during college and I did that because you can make a case that whoever starts for the 49ers when Sermon takes the field, is going to be the worst quarterback that he has played with in the last four years. This won’t affect Sermon in the receiving game because he isn’t known for being a receiving back, but I still thought that his quarterback pedigree was very impressive.
The 49ers traded up in the draft to get Sermon so they have to see something they like which should translate to playing time for the running back. The problem from a fantasy perspective? Sermon is joining a backfield with Raheem Mostert (2020 RB48 in .5PPR scoring), Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB30), and Wayne Gallman Jr. (RB32). On a per-game basis, those running backs in order were RB28, RB22, and RB39 so, in the short term, Sermon is going to be a part of the committee that the 49ers use and it could be a tough situation to determine which Niners running back to trust week-to-week. The 49ers also drafted another running back in Elijah Mitchell out of Louisiana in the sixth round.
The Long Con
Not to worry potential Sermon manager, there is a reason to be hopeful! All three of the veteran backs of the 49ers that Sermon is going to be competing with have contracts that expire at the end of the 2021 season. Even if you go further into the depth chart and include JaMycal Hasty, he also has his current contract expire at the end of the season and with four expiring contracts, there is not a large chance that the 49ers will be bringing everyone back.
The other thing that is in Sermon’s favor is that he can do everything they need him to on the ground. Sermon is a nice mix of a bruising and an elusive back. In his senior year, Sermon finished top-10 in both yards after contact average (4.04) and in rushing attempts that went more than 15 yards (16). Mostert would be his biggest competition, but he also is the most expensive and the oldest. There is even a rumor that Mostert could be a surprise cap casualty with the moves that the 49ers have made to fill out their running back corps.
The most impressive aspect of Sermon that separates him from other backs is his fight for extra yardage. If you looked at the last four years of running backs that had as many carries as Trey Sermon in each of his collegiate years, he finished 15th, 23rd, 8th, and 5th in regards to average yards per carry. For his career, he averaged 6.5 yards per carry, but in his final season at Ohio State, he averaged 7.5. While at the moment the 49ers have running backs that usually specialize in one area and complement each other, they aren’t going to need all those pieces when they have a complete back in Sermon.
Approaching Rookie Drafts
Sermon isn’t one of the top backs in this rookie draft and from the landing spot, he isn’t likely to pay early dividends so you are making a pick for the future with him. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams should all go before Sermon. You can make a case for Sermon the be the fourth or fifth back taken (behind Michael Carter), but that is as far as he should fall positionally. I would say that Sermon is going to be a beginning of round two guy for me as I think I would snatch some wide receivers towards the end of the first before I would take him. But, don’t let him fall to the end of the second!
Don’t forget to check out the other rookie profiles from the Fantasy In Frames crew over at our website!
