Trevor Lawrence was billed as the first overall pick in the NFL draft since he was in high school, and he indeed was in 2021. As the new face of the Jaguars franchise, he inherits a rebuilding team with a head coach making the transition from college himself. Still, Lawrence’s fantasy outlook is bright in 2021 and beyond.
It’s safe to assume Lawrence will be the week 1 starter in Jacksonville, taking the reigns right away. He has some pretty good weapons at his disposal and should be throwing a lot as the Jaguars play from behind often. But what do I REALLY think about his potential overall fantasy production? Find out in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
College Background
Lawrence entered Clemson University in 2018 as a five-star prospect who had been on the national radar in high school, and all he did was win. He went undefeated in the regular season over three years as the Clemson starter while winning a national championship as a true freshman, making the championship game as a sophomore, and making the playoffs in his junior year. In those three years, Lawrence totaled 10,098 passing yards and 90 touchdowns – even while missing several games due to COVID-19 in his final season – and added 943 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. College Football Focus gave him passing grades of 90.6, 86.2, and 90.2 in his three years as a Tiger. One cannot overstate how good Lawrence was as a college quarterback and his accolades are many. The only knock on him was that against elite competition and while under pressure, his performance was not as good as it was outside those situations. But no prospect is perfect. Lawrence was heralded as a generational NFL prospect and the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. The Jaguars agreed, and he was selected first overall on draft night.
Team Situation
Last season could not get much uglier for the 1-15 Jaguars, and they rebooted their franchise with a new head coach, Urban Meyer, and a new elite quarterback in Lawrence. It remains to be seen if Meyer can make the transition from college to the pros well, and therefore if Lawrence’s true potential can be unlocked. Meyer has his doubters for sure.
Lawrence does inherit some good offensive weapons in Jacksonville. Wide receiver DJ Chark has shown some great flashes in his career, including a torrid start to the 2019 season and ending that year as WR18 in half-PPR scoring per game (Fantasy Pros). 2020 rookie receiver Laviska Shenault, Jr. showed explosiveness and versatility in his first year, and the team added veteran Marvin Jones, Jr, to the receiving corps. Running back James Robinson returns after a very good rookie season as a three-down presence (1414 total yards from scrimmage and 10 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns). The team added one of Lawrence’s Clemson teammates in running back Travis Etienne with their other first-round pick. Collin Johnson, a big (6’6” 222 lbs.) red zone target has sleeper potential. Lawrence will have some good options on offense moving forward.
Fantasy Outlook
While his head coach may have much to prove at the NFL level, and the team will struggle overall, there are several reasons to be optimistic about Lawrence’s fantasy potential.
First, Lawrence has all the talent in the world. He is an elite prospect who passes well and has rushing upside. It is always a good policy to bet on talent. Second, he has an opportunity and you better believe he will have volume. He is the definitive Week 1 starter (which is not true for all the big-name rookie quarterbacks in 2021), and his team will be playing from behind often. That means plenty of passing and even some “garbage time” production for you. Third, that rushing upside will be shown off early, as many young quarterbacks who can run will choose to do so quickly rather than be patient in the passing game, especially under pressure. While this may make Lawrence miss out on some passing production opportunities, it does elevate his fantasy floor. Fourth, his weapons are perhaps the best that any of the prominent 2021 rookie quarterbacks will have. Having good pass catchers, including some who have good YAC ability, is what a quarterback needs to maximize their fantasy output.
Lawrence’s outlook is not completely sunny, however, as most fantasy assets have drawbacks. First, he is a rookie. Rookies, even very good ones, make mistakes. Lawrence will take time to develop and may throw more interceptions early on that you would like to see. Second, he needs to learn to be more judicious in his running style. He needs to slide more and take fewer big hits. Third, the Jaguars’ offensive line play needs to improve. Pro Football focus graded their pass blocking 64.7 and their run blocking 60.2 in 2020 – 19th and 25th respectively.
Trevor Lawrence is about as good a quarterback prospect as there ever was and he enters a pretty attractive situation for fantasy purposes. In redraft, it’s important to temper expectations and avoid rookie fever and jumping at the big name. Lawrence likely has a high-end QB2 floor and, if things break right, could be in the QB1 conversation. We just saw Justin Herbert excel in his rookie season in 2020 (QB9 in FanDuel points per game, according to Fantasy Data), and fellow rookie Joe Burrow was on a decent pace (QB19) before getting injured. Neither had a very good offensive line, and Lawrence is by all accounts a better prospect than both. In dynasty, Lawrence is easily the 1.01 in Superflex rookie drafts and often the only first-round quarterback in 1QB rookie drafts. I have seen him go in the second round in Superflex startups, among the top ten quarterbacks off the board. It is tough not to be high on Lawrence as a fantasy producer in both the short and long term. Draft him with confidence.
