The Baltimore Ravens made Rashod Bateman a late first-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft. His fantasy outlook for 2021 is unclear at the moment, making him an intriguing — and perhaps divisive — prospect. Let’s see how he stacks up in our 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
College Background
Rashod Bateman was a four-star prospect entering his freshman year at the University of Minnesota in 2018. He quickly produced, tallying 51 receptions, 704 yards, and 6 touchdowns that year. Bateman followed that up with a stellar 2019 sophomore campaign during which he totaled 60 receptions, 1219 yards (20.3 yards per reception), and 11 touchdowns. Pro Football Focus gave him an 89.0 receiving grade that year, and it gave him an elite breakout age of 18.8, good for the 94th percentile (Player Profiler). That season sealed Bateman as a top NFL prospect.
Bateman originally opted out of the 2020 season, but he came back and played 5 games of the shortened Big Ten schedule and put up modest numbers with 36 receptions, 472 yards (13.1 yards per reception), and 2 touchdowns. He finished his college career with a dominator rating of 43.7% and a target share of 30.4% (88th and 87th percentile, respectively, per Player Profiler) and outshined 2020 NFL rookie Tyler Johnson in their time together at Minnesota.
There are often prospects who are described as not doing any one thing great but doing almost everything well, and Bateman fell into that category. He is not a superb route runner nor is he great at beating press-man coverage, but he uses his body well and has very good hands. He high points the ball well and has a good catch radius. Bateman has great YAC ability, partly due to being good at breaking tackles. While he ended up shorter and lighter than expected (6’0” instead of 6’2” and 190 lbs. Instead of 210 lbs.), Bateman had a good enough 40-yard dash time of 4.48 (73rd percentile) was still consistently in the top three in many analysts’ wide receiver prospect rankings entering the draft.
Fantasy Outlook
After trading offensive tackle Orlando Brown to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens had two first round picks in the 2021 draft. They used their first, the 27th pick overall, to select Bateman. How does the landing spot in Baltimore affect Bateman’s fantasy outlook? THe answer is unclear, and it may depend on which fantasy narrative you believe.
If you believe that landing spot matters a lot, and if you are in the crowd of fantasy managers who are down on Lamar Jackson because of issues with his accuracy, you might not like Bateman’s outlook. He landed on what might still be a run-heavy team and will be catching passes from a quarterback who is an elite rusher but not a great passer. As Michelle Magdziuk of Ball Blast Football has pointed out, Jackson had the second-highest rate of inaccurate passes when targeting wide receivers since 2018, at 49.3% (minimum 400 attempts, per Pro Football Focus). He seems to too often miss on passes top quarterbacks should make. Additionally, Jackson has favored tight end Mark Andrews in the passing game more than wide receivers. All this points to Bateman’s stock dropping a bit due to landing in Baltimore and would seem to suppress his fantasy value.
However, there is another narrative one can subscribe to. If you believe that talent trumps landing spot and will always rise to the top, and that draft capital equals opportunity and volume and that all Lamar Jackson needed was better wide receiver weapons to throw to than Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, then you are more optimistic about Bateman’s fantasy outlook. Bateman is an elite prospect and a high draft pick. He has a great chance of becoming the WR1 in Baltimore and is the best weapon at wide receiver Jackson has had in his time there. Bateman’s catch radius will also help him with some of Jackson’s passes that aren’t quite on the mark. Furthermore, the percentage of Jackson’s targets dedicated to wide receivers increased from 2019 to 2020, and there are rumblings Baltimore wants to rely less on the run moving forward. All this points to Bateman’s stock remaining high and his fantasy value remaining intact.
I am in the camp that believes the second narrative. I think Bateman is too talented to be a miss in fantasy. A good example to think about in this case is that of Allen Robinson. While having a bit of a bigger frame than Bateman, Robinson had a very similar breakout age, a slightly slower 40 time, and was picked 34 spots lower overall in the draft than Bateman — but all he has done is have a great career despite consistently bad quarterback play. It is possible to still excel when given volume — which Bateman will get as the WR1 — despite having a lackluster quarterback. Bateman is probably a better prospect than Robinson was and Jackson is probably a better quarterback than Robinson has ever had, and I remain optimistic about the former’s fantasy outlook. I am confidently drafting Bateman in the early second round of dynasty rookie drafts and have even seen him go in the late first round. In redraft, I could see him being a late-round stash with WR3 upside in 2021 and an even higher ceiling moving forward.
