The Pittsburgh Steelers selected Alabama running back Najee Harris with the 24th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, filling a team need with a promising prospect.
Harris joins a team in the market for an RB1 and should get the volume necessary to excel in fantasy. However, his success will depend on the Steelers’ overall offensive efficiency and offensive line play. Therefore, what do I REALLY think about his potential fantasy production this year and beyond? Find out in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
College Background
Like many Alabama standouts and elite college prospects, Harris had a five-star grade coming out of high school and was heavily recruited. He spent his freshman and sophomore seasons (2017 and 2018) behind older starters, but put up big numbers in his junior and senior years (2019 and 2020). In those campaigns, he rushed for a combined 2690 yards and scored 39 touchdowns (26 in 2020). Harris was a capable receiver as well, tallying 70 catches for 729 and 11 touchdowns during those same two seasons. In 2020, Pro Football Focus gave Harris’ rushing and receiving work grades of 90.1 and 81.6 respectively. That year, he won the Doak Walker Award, given to the nation’s best tailback. While Harris’ 30.9% college dominator rating (Player Profiler) is not elite for a running back, it should be noted how much he had to share production with other great players at Alabama.
While Harris lacks great top-end speed, he is agile for his size (6’2” and almost 230 lbs) and great at breaking tackles, making for big gains on the ground anyway. He added receiving to his game in his last two seasons (college target share of 13.4%, 90th percentile, per Player Profiler) and that will come in handy in the NFL. Harris’s vision is excellent, according to scouts, and he has drawn comparisons to Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Steven Jackson. While recent trends have shown NFL teams spending less draft capital on running backs, Harris was one of two expected to be selected in the first round of the 2021 draft (along with Travis Etienne) and the Steelers pulled the trigger at 24th overall.
Team Situation
Injury and ineffectiveness limited the production of 2020 Pittsburgh running backs James Conner and Benny Snell, and the team led the league in passing attempts with 656. Coach Mike Tomlin has had a history of using workhorse backs but had to depart from that tendency. Lead back Conner was not re-signed by the team, leaving a vacancy at the RB1 position on a team that was desperate to improve its running game. Harris enters this situation and should be rewarded early with a heavy workload.
One area of concern for Pittsburgh – and for Harris – is the offensive line. Pro Football Focus had the Steelers graded 31st out of 32 teams (50.3 grade) in run blocking in 2020. The team also lost tackle Alejandro Villanueva to free agency and only added one offensive lineman in the draft. If the offensive line cannot improve, Harris may have his work cut out for him.
Fantasy Outlook
Some fantasy managers subscribe to the motto “volume is king.” Najee Harris could get plenty of volume in Pittsburgh as the RB1 they were looking for. The type of volume he is expected to get is what you want from a fantasy running back, and his receiving ability keeps him on the field and adds to his production floor. Additionally, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, whose arm is not what it used to be, passed for 3.1 air yards per attempt in 2020, which ranked 32nd (Fantasy Data). This bodes well for Harris’ potential receiving workload.
The Steelers will have to improve their run blocking if Harris is to reach his full potential and if the team wants to avoid another 650-plus pass attempt season. Furthermore, there is almost always a learning curve for most rookies, and Harris may take a little while to hit his stride. While it is tough to compare 2021 rookies to 2020 rookies who lacked a full preseason regimen, it is not out of the realm of possibility that we could see Harris have a similar trajectory as Jonathan Taylor did last year, coming on stronger as the year progresses. Patience with rookies – whether in redraft or dynasty – is prudent.
As we get news out of the Steelers’ camp this summer, it may become clearer where to select Harris in redraft, but as of now, you should expect people to draft him aggressively. He is a “shiny new toy” set for RB1 volume. In dynasty rookie drafts, Harris is often the first overall pick in the 1QB format and often the first non-quarterback taken in Superflex formats. He is being taken in the top 15 running backs in startups. It would appear the slight concern that he is already 23 is not deterring dynasty managers from eagerly selecting him. I have him ranked in my top 12 dynasty running backs. You can find our rankings elsewhere on this site. Both floor and ceiling are high with Harris, and he should be a solid fantasy contributor in 2021 and beyond.