Fourth-round running backs aren’t typically given much thought when our dynasty league rookie drafts roll around, especially when said RB is also somewhat undersized, but I’m here to tell you why it might be an idea to acquire Michael Carter in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
College Career
Carter was a 4-year contributor at North Carolina where he broke out as an 18-year old Freshman scoring 9 total TD’s and averaging 5.8 YPC throughout the 2017 season.
Entering his sophomore campaign, Carter was splitting backfield duties with fellow 2021 Draft Pick, Javonte Williams. This continued for the rest of their time as Tar Heels with Carter bettering the Denver Broncos’ new RB in rushing yards and YPA throughout their time in NC, although Williams led the pair in total TD’s scored every season.
Following his 2020 campaign in which he led the ACC in rushing Yards (1,245) & rushing Yards per attempt (8.0), Carter declared for the 2021 NFL Draft. He was widely viewed as a top-5 RB in the class. With analyst, Chris Simms declaring that for him, Michael Carter was the clear #2 RB behind only Travis Etienne.
Clearly the NFL saw the 2021 RB class similarly to pundits & draft analysts with the expected top-5 RB’s in the class being the first 5 RB’s taken off the board. Carter was the fifth ball carrier to hear his name called, as the New York Jets selected the former Tar Heel 107th overall, which was the 2nd pick in the 4th round. Although it was expected that Carter would be the 4th or 5th RB selected it did come as a bit of a surprise that he fell into day 3. His size (5’8 & 201lbs) and shared college workload are likely what pushed him outside of day 2.
New York Jets
His fit in this new look NY Jets offense is an interesting one. New Jets Offensive Coordinator, Mike LaFleur has come over from San Francisco with HC Robert Saleh and is likely to implement a similar outside zone run scheme that we’ve become used to seeing from a Kyle Shanahan offense. Outside of Travis Etienne, Carter was arguably the best fit for this type of running attack. Speed is something this scheme is predicated on and whilst not a burner, Carter’s sub 4.6 40-yard dash time clocked at his pro day bettered teammate Javonte Williams’ time as well as bettering the time of Trey Sermon of Ohio State, who was the 4th RB taken in the draft.
Whilst the scheme we’re likely to see from the Jets bodes well for running back success it’s also important to mention that the RB room in NY is pretty full. Tevin Coleman was added this off-season and has experience in this system from his days in San Francisco, therefore you might expect if he can stay healthy then he is likely to get the majority of time in this backfield. Ty Johnson and 2020 4th round pick La’Mical Perine are also on the depth chart and will start training camp ahead of Michael Carter.
This full RB room is something we’re used to seeing from Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco with multiple RB’s taking snaps throughout the season. If LaFleur utilizes his RB room in a similar style to Shanahan then it could cause fantasy players a bit of a headache trying to decipher who’s going to have the hot hand from week to week.
Fantasy Outlook
Although not being taken until the 4th round in the NFL draft, Michael Carter’s dynasty rookie draft stock is a lot higher. According to FantasyData, we’re looking at an ADP of 18 in rookie drafts, in the most common 12-team leagues, this makes Carter the 2.06. Although from this writer’s own experience in 12-team Dynasty Superflex leagues I am yet to see him fall past the 2.04. Whilst I don’t mind him at this price, I do think it’s paying close to his ceiling for an undoubtedly talented player, but one who might be third or even fourth on the depth chart entering Week 1. I think this potential outcome will give us a great buying opportunity. If a league mate has used an early 2nd round pick to select Carter and sees him listed down the depth chart with nominal touches through Weeks 1 & 2 I’d expect he’d be getting nervous about his investment. This could open up an opportunity for us to purchase Carter for less than his current ADP with 2022 picks before the “inevitable” but unwanted Tevin Coleman injury pushes him up the depth chart and into meaningful snaps on the field.
Final Analysis
Michael Carter was a productive 4-year contributor at the college level with an elite breakout age of 18 via PlayerProfiler which is a metric indicative of projecting player performance from college throughout the pros. Carter improved his rushing yards total every season as a Tar Heel culminating in 1,245 yard season as a Senior in 2020, leading the ACC. He’s undersized for the position and doesn’t have the ideal draft capital we’d like for a guy whose ADP is in the mid 2ndround. Carter has landed in a good spot though, with a team that doesn’t have a designated #1 RB and run a scheme that suits his skillset. Ultimately, due to the lack of depth and unfortunate landing spots in this 2021 class, I have no problem with selecting Carter at his current ADP, but more frugal Dyansty players might want to play the long game and pounce if Carter stays buried on the depth chart entering Week 1. Whether it’s during your rookie draft or not the message is the same. Get Carter.