4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT: Justin Fields
After falling further than many expected him to, Justin Fields was selected eleventh overall by the Chicago Bears, who traded up to pick him in the 2021 NFL Draft.
His fantasy outlook for 2021 depends largely on whether or not he begins the season as the Chicago Bears’ starting quarterback. Fields is joining a team with Andy Dalton currently as the QB1 and with Nick Foles also on the roster. Therefore, based on the level of competition around him at the position it may not take long for Fields to see playing time on a team that hopes to return to the playoffs. That being said, let’s see how he stacks up as a fantasy prospect in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
College Background
As a five-star prospect and a subject of a documentary as a high schooler, Justin Fields has been in the national spotlight for quite a while. He barely played in his freshman year at Georgia in 2018, as he saw the field in 12 games but only threw 39 passes. Fields then transferred to Ohio State, taking the team to the college football playoffs as a sophomore. That year he amassed 3273 passing yards and 41 touchdowns while rushing for 484 yards and 10 scores, establishing himself as a premier dual-threat quarterback.
In Fields’ 2020 junior year, the Big Ten played a truncated schedule. In only 8 games (including two playoff games), he passed for 2100 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 383 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. Pro Football Focus graded Fields’ passing at 92.0 and his running at 85.3 for the season. Fields ended his college career with a 92.1 quarterback rating (97th percentile, per Player Profiler) and 9.2 yards per attempt. He was, clearly, poised for great things in his future as he declared for the 2021 NFL Draft.
Path to the Pros
For months, Fields was the consensus QB2 in incoming rookie rankings and was the presumptive second pick in the draft. That began to change as it became clear the New York Jets were going to take BYU quarterback Zach Wilson with the second pick in the NFL Draft. It, also, started to become clear that Fields’ reputation as a top 10 draft pick started to lose traction amongst NFL decision-makers.
Why did that happen?
It is difficult to say to be honest. There was a narrative about him not being a good passer past his first read, though a number of analysts pushed back on this. The stigma of the failure of past Ohio State quarterbacks could have been a factor, too. Additionally, some scouts pointed to throwing mechanics that would need to be worked on in the pros. Finally, there were rumblings about him having a poor work ethic to which, in my opinion, were connected to deplorable stereotypes that Black quarterback prospects have dealt with in the past, though those rumors seemed to be debunked pretty quickly. All that notwithstanding on draft night, with Fields still undrafted at pick 11, the Bears traded up and happily selected him as their quarterback of the future.
But will he be the quarterback of the present?
Fantasy Outlook
Fields’ rushing upside puts him in the “cheat code” quarterback category, but his fantasy outlook for 2021 largely depends on when he takes over as the starter in Chicago. There is reason to believe he could start right away. Fields is a phenomenal athlete and has been heralded as a good leader. His only real competition for the starting role is Andy Dalton. Dalton is not only an unimpressive quarterback at this point in his career, but, just like Fields, he is new to the team and will be learning the playbook and establishing rapport with receivers alongside Fields. Fields is not entering a situation where there is an established incumbent in which the team has a ton of faith.
Should he start the season under center for the Bears, Fields will have some good weapons at his disposal. Allen Robinson, starved for a quality quarterback, is the WR1 and Darnell Mooney is an emerging downfield threat. Young tight end Cole Kmet was the starter as the season progressed in 2020 and showed some good flashes. In fact, he is climbing up many people’s tight end rankings as we speak. Running back David Montgomery had a solid season and grew as a pass catcher, and he is joined in the backfield by Tarik Cohen and the newly signed Damien Williams.
Chicago’s offensive line play must improve, however. Pro Football Focus graded their 2020 pass blocking at 59.4 and their run blocking at 69.5. A third wide receiver emerging would help Fields, too. Anthony Miller was rumored to be leaving but still remains for now, and the team drafted Dazz Newsome in the sixth round. Neither inspires much confidence at this juncture.
Regardless of whether or not Fields is the 2021 week 1 starter in Chicago, his longer-term fantasy value is high right now. He is an elite prospect who will get every chance to produce given the draft capital used on him. Fields fits the mold of the type of quarterback you want on your fantasy team given his rushing floor.
For 2021 redraft, he remains — for now — a later round target, but pay close attention to news coming out of the Bears’ camp. If it looks like he will start right away, he should go higher, in the middle rounds. For dynasty, he is going in the top three picks in Superflex rookie drafts and is certainly a player to target in startups with an early pick as you build your team for the long haul. Fields’ ceiling is very high and he could easily outperform some quarterbacks taken before him in the NFL draft.