4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT: Jaylen Waddle
The Miami Dolphins selected Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, as the second wide receiver off the board.
He is an explosive player who joins a pretty good offense on a winning team. It will be hard to live up to the draft capital Miami spent on him, but it is possible. Waddle’s size and his major 2020 injury are slight concerns, and his quarterback Tua Tagovailoa needs to take another step forward for Waddle’s potential to be fully unlocked. That said, he is an elite playmaker, and betting on his kind of talent is often a winning proposition. Let’s learn more about him and his potential fantasy impact in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
College Background
Waddle hit the ground running in his 2018 freshman season at the University of Alabama. He caught 45 passes for 848 yards (18.8 yards per reception) and 7 touchdowns. He continued to impress in 2019 as a sophomore, with 33 catches for 560 yards (17 yards per reception) and 6 scores. In his first four games as a junior in 2020, he tallied 28 catches for 598 yards, (21.1 yards per reception) and scored 4 touchdowns. Waddle amassed at least 120 yards in all four games and was on pace for a stellar season of over 80 catches, over 1800 yards, and 13 touchdowns. In the fifth game of the season, he fractured his right ankle and only returned in the national championship game, albeit in a very limited role. Waddle was also a very good weapon as a returner, adding to his prospect profile. According to Player Profiler, his dominator rating of 19.7% and his breakout age of 21.8 are not very good in that those metrics reflect a lack of potential longevity as a playmaker in the NFL, but those metrics would be more concerning if Waddle played in a lesser college program with not as much competition for touches.
With elite speed, very good route running, and tons of YAC ability, Waddle seems to have done enough in essentially two and a quarter seasons to solidify himself as a top draft target. The Dolphins certainly thought so, making him their first pick in the draft at the 6 spot, right behind Ja’Marr Chase who went at number 5 to the Bengals, and several spots ahead of Heisman-winning teammate Devonta Smith.
Team Situation
Waddle joins an improving offense on a team that was in the playoff hunt last year. Miami retooled their offensive line and handed the keys to the franchise over to Tagovailoa. He had mixed results at quarterback (Pro Football Focus graded his passing at 63.9 in 2020) and will need to keep improving if the team, including Waddle, is going to produce well.
Tua Tagovailoa running it back with Jaylen Waddle, now in MIA, is going to be a LOT of fun to watch! pic.twitter.com/mqu7touGJn
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) June 7, 2021
Miami does have a somewhat crowded group of weapons on offense, complicating Waddle’s outlook. Free agent acquisition and fellow speedster Will Fuller joined veteran DaVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki in the pass catching corps. Running back Myles Gaskin will command touches and is efficient enough to not make Miami totally reliant on the passing game to move the ball. Last year, the Dolphins were 18th in team pass attempts, and there is no reason to believe that will change dramatically.
Fantasy Outlook
Waddle’s fantasy outlook is a bit uncertain right now. While he is explosive and an elite talent, he is a bit undersized (5’9” 182 lbs.) and is coming off a major injury. Additionally, while the offense in Miami is not bad, Waddle’s role seems unclear. With Fuller as a field stretcher and Gesicki lining up in the slot often, Waddle may need to make the most of his touches to see increased playing time and volume. Furthermore, Waddle is not tied to an elite quarterback and is not on a bad defensive team, two factors that would improve his outlook.
In redraft, If you want to bet on talent, you will invest in Waddle earlier in drafts than some other managers will. If you tend to be conservative, or if you need a floor play at a certain pick, you may avoid Waddle at first. The optimist in me says Waddle will be explosive and carve out a role after a few weeks and could be a solid WR3/FLEX play, but at the moment, I am not as sold on him in the short-term as I am on Chase.
In dynasty, Waddle is going in the late first round in superflex rookie drafts and the mid first round in 1QB rookie drafts. In startups, I have seen him go before veterans such as Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett. Long-term, I am a Waddle believer, partly because I am higher on Tagovailoa than the seeming consensus. Waddle is an electric playmaker – more than just a speed guy – who should find a way to command volume, even if he has to wait for Gesicki to leave after this year. All the quarterback needs to do is get the ball in his hands on high percentage passes, and Waddle will do the rest.
Keep an eye on news coming out of Dolphins camp over the summer. We could get a better feel for Waddle’s role by the time redraft season is upon us, and we may be drafting him earlier than I expected.