With the third pick in the second round, the Denver Broncos selected Javonte Williams, a running back, out of the University of North Carolina.
Williams was heralded as one of the top running backs in this class behind Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, but his landing spot left some scratching their heads for what this means for his short- and long-term fantasy value and how you should adjust your rookie rankings before any rookie drafts in your dynasty leagues. Never fear! Allow me to introduce you to the Broncos’ newest backfield member and project what his value should be going forward in our first 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT of 2021!
While at the University of North Carolina, Williams shared a backfield with new New York Jets running back Michael Carter, so being a part of a crowded backfield won’t be anything new to him. The best news for Broncos fans and fantasy managers alike is that Williams excelled at UNC in both the ground and receiving game, making sure that he was an essential part of the game plan.
A three-year player, the 5 ft. 10, 220 lb. back played in 34 total career games. Williams, who turned 21 in late April of this year, really broke out in his sophomore and junior years. In his second year, Williams ran the ball 166 times for 933 yards and five touchdowns adding an additional 17 receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown through the air. Pretty respectable right?
In his final collegiate season, Williams made sure all the scouts had PLENTY of film as he rushed 157 times for 1,140 yards and 19 (yes, 19!) touchdowns. He brought in 25 receptions for 305 more yards and three touchdowns. If you truly want to see what kind of back Williams is, check out his film from his final career game against Miami, where he had 236 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Two-Headed Monster Veteran
Javonte Williams was graded as the best running back from the last college football season according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). For running backs with at least 140 attempts on the ground last season, Williams finished with the fifth-most yards after contact, the fourth most yards after contact per attempt, and the highest number of missed tackles forced. If you think Williams is just a bruising back that is hard to bring down, think again. Williams had the second-highest number of designed runs go at least 15 yards, the fourth-highest breakaway yardage, and the highest elusive rating by 60 points.
While Williams showed that he was able to be a dual-threat running back, he actually brings even more to his game when blocking. While not used a lot as a blocker, PFF still graded Williams as an above-average run and pass blocker his junior year when he allowed no sacks and only two quarterback hurries. Whether it be Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater under center, they will be able to rely on Williams to provide an added layer of protection.
The Short-Term
The surprise of this pick came due to the fact that Melvin Gordon is still expected to be the lead back entering into the final year of his contract with the Broncos. The good news for Williams at least is that former backup Phillip Lindsay has a new home in Houston and so his 270 snaps will likely be eaten up a lot by Williams. While Lindsay had fewer than 20 targets in the passing game, he did rush the ball 118 times. Only five backup running backs had more rush attempts in the league last year, so even though Melvin Gordon is a bigger name, Williams should be able to still have a role carved out early in this offense.
While it won’t do much directly for your fantasy scoring, the blocking value that Williams adds will at least allow him to be on the field more. If you look at 2020, Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay were asked to run block/pass block 35/67 times for Gordon, and 18/29 times for Lindsay. When it comes to the run-blocking specifically, both backs were very average coming in with PFF grades of a 52.7 and a 59.9 respectively. With pass blocking though? It gets ugly. Gordon was graded with a 41.7 and Lindsay with a 35.8. Out of 58 running backs that had at least 18 snaps that they were asked to pass block, Gordon and Lindsay finished as the 13th and 9th WORST pass-blocking running backs. With Lindsay out of town, Williams already fills a clear need and will be on the field to help block. If he can consistently help block the quarterback, he is going to gain that trust and develop needed rapport.
Also, yes Mike Boone was also brought in, but if you look at his sparse usage in Minnesota backing up Dalvin Cook, this honestly hurts the other running back, Royce Freeman, more than it would Williams or Gordon.
The Long Con
Honestly, the long-term hope for Williams doesn’t require you to look too far into the future. Melvin Gordon will be 29 years old when his current contract ends after next season. Sure, the Broncos could extend him, but if Williams is able to seamlessly transition into the NFL as many expect, even if Gordon DOES get a second deal with Denver, it wouldn’t be anything long-term. For dynasty? This actually may have been the best time for Williams to join this rebuild in Denver and he may be only one season away from launching into even more fantasy relevance.
Approaching Rookie Drafts
If your rookie draft happened before the actual NFL draft from this past weekend, or if you have been doing mock drafts like a fiend, you have probably seen Javonte Williams go in the top-5 to 7 in 1-QB leagues and probably in the top-7 to 10 in SF leagues. With his landing spot in Denver I don’t believe that changes at all. Najee Harris as the lead back in Pittsburgh should have him off the board first for running backs, and then honestly don’t be surprised if Williams goes second for the position. I would feel comfortable taking Williams in that same top-5 to 7 range and think that he shouldn’t fall past the third running back off the board behind Harris and new Jacksonville Jaguar Travis Etienne.
Don’t forget to check out the other rookie profiles from the Fantasy In Frames crew over at our website!
