Ja’Marr Chase was the first wide receiver taken in the 2021 NFL draft, drafted fifth overall.
In that draft, the Bengals opted not to take tackle Penei Sewell, whom many believed was the better choice given their offensive line troubles in recent years as well as with their need for protecting their young quarterback Joe Burrow who is coming back from a major knee injury. Now, it remains to be seen if Cincinnati made the right call, but if Burrow can remain upright enough, Chase could thrive, even with the other receiving options on the team. Let us see just HOW good he could be in our latest 4-EYED Rookie Snapshot!
College Background
After modest production during his 2018 freshman season, Chase broke out in 2019 as a sophomore. That year, he caught 84 passes for 1780 yards (21.2 YPC) and 20 touchdowns as the number one receiver on a historic college offense. Chase ended up with a very good breakout age of 19.5, according to Player Profiler, which is indicative of a player showing fantastic long-term potential & production in the pros the earlier they produce on their team in college. Teammates Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Justin Jefferson were all drafted in the first round the following spring. Chase had established himself as an elite NFL prospect, then chose to opt-out of the 2020 season, but clearly, that did not hurt his draft stock. His pro day 40 yard dash time of 4.39 seconds put him in the 95th percentile (Player Profiler), and his vertical and broad jumps were also impressive. Entering the 2021 draft cycle, Chase was WR1 in most analysts’ rankings.
Chase’s speed and athleticism serve him well on the field, especially in his YAC ability, and he has good hands and high-points balls well. Some have pointed to a need for him to improve his route running, especially on short and intermediate routes, as well as a need to improve his blocking in the run game. Despite a few weaknesses, Chase brings elite WR skills to his new team, and that might translate into high-end fantasy production.
Team Situation
At first glance, Chase enters a somewhat crowded wide receiver room in Cincinnati, with quality options Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins already there. In order for Chase to thrive, there will need to be enough passing volume to support all three receivers. That is very possible with the Bengals this season and beyond. Burrow’s 16-game pace for pass attempts before he was hurt last year was 646, which would have put Cincinnati in second place behind Pittsburgh. It is quite possible Burrow maintains a similar pace in 2021 with the team trailing. That would produce enough targets to support all three wideouts, especially given that no running back on the team is all that prolific of a receiver and that there is no real threat to targets from the tight end position. Burrow himself is a quality young quarterback and is someone you would want a receiver tied to for fantasy purposes. Additionally, he and Chase already have chemistry from their college days, so building a rapport on the pro level should not take long.
Fantasy Outlook
Chase is a dynamic player entering a high passing volume offense tied to a good quarterback. There is a slight concern about his individual volume given the two other wide receivers already playing a big role on the team. Chase is a better deep threat than Boyd and Higgins, so that should help open up a role for him.
The Bengals’ offensive line will have to improve, however. Pro Football Focus graded their pass blocking 58.3 in 2020, good for 27th out of 32 teams. In order for Burrow to have time to pass — and to even remain on the field — that metric will have to get better. The team did select tackles in rounds 2 and 4 in hopes of addressing this need. It remains to be seen if the unit can take a step forward.
If Chase can find a role on the team among the other wide receivers, and if the team can improve its offensive line, Chase could see some significant fantasy production. Burrow may come to rely on him more and more as the season progresses, though as with all rookies, it is important to have realistic expectations, especially early in the season.
For redraft purposes, given the depth at the wide receiver position, Chase is probably best seen as a WR3/FLEX for now, with upside for more. He probably could be taken earlier in best ball formats. In dynasty rookie drafts, he is consistently among the first three non-quarterbacks off the board in Superflex formats and an early first-rounder in 1QB formats. Chase is a top target in startups, too, though perhaps he is being taken too early for me in some drafts I have seen. However, I am bullish on Chase. I have him currently ranked as WR11 in my dynasty rankings here at Fantasy In Frames, ahead of a number of more experienced high-end targets.