It is hard to have low expectations for someone named after a god, but after being selected in the fourth round in the 2021 NFL draft – lower than expected by many – and to a bad team, what can we expect from wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown?
St. Brown did not get the draft capital that many predicted he would get, going a whole two rounds after most predicted he would go, but he joins a subpar wide receiver corps, giving him the chance to step in and contribute right away.
College Background
After respectable numbers in 11 games as a freshman in 2018 (60 catches, 750 yards, 3 TDs), St. Brown broke out in his 2019 sophomore season for USC. That year, in 13 games, he caught 77 passes for 1042 yards (13.5 yards per catch) and 6 touchdowns, helping him achieve a very good breakout age of 18.9. In the shortened 2020 Pac-12 season, St. Brown added 7 more touchdowns on 41 receptions and 478 yards (11.7 yards per catch) in 6 games. He also had 9 rushes for 69 yards and a score over his first two college campaigns.
St. Brown is not very fast (4.66 40-yard dash time) but runs good routes, uses his body well, has good hands, and does not shy away from contact. Several analysts tagged him as a player who does not do any one thing great but does most things well. St. Brown was predicted by many to be drafted in the second round. He instead went in the fourth to the Detroit Lions.
Team Situation
St. Brown’s team situation does not look good at first glance. The Lions are a rebuilding team that will struggle in 2021. Their quarterback, Jared Goff, is a downgrade from last year’s Matthew Stafford. One might also think at first that he is not a good fit for a developing wide receiver. Goff averaged only 3.3 air yards per attempt in 2020 and had a deep ball completion percentage of 27.1 (Fantasy Data). Running back D’Andre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson will likely see the bulk of targets relative to the wideouts on the team. However, St. Brown is good in the short and intermediate areas, and he could connect with Goff well.
There are two other things that bode well for St. Brown. First, the team should be trailing a lot, which could produce some more wide receiver targets than we’d normally expect. Second – and probably most importantly – St. Brown could already be the best wide receiver on the team. With Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Kalif Raymond, and Breshad Perriman as the current receiver corps (and some folks like fellow rookie Jonathan Adams), there is a path for St. Brown to be the Lions’ WR1.
Fantasy Outlook
Normally a player with St. Brown’s draft capital headed to a team as bad as the Lions would not be very fantasy relevant. However, given St. Brown’s talent and his path to being the WR1 on the team, he may be worth a flyer in deeper redraft leagues this season. Someone besides the running backs and tight ends will have to catch the ball at times with the team trailing, and St. Brown could very well be that guy.
In dynasty rookie drafts and startups, St. Brown is being taken ahead of some fellow rookies with better real-life draft capital, including first-round pick Kedarius Toney. It seems the dynasty community is willing to bet on the talent and be patient with St. Brown, perhaps waiting for a new quarterback in Detroit in 2022.
St. Brown is not flashy, he is solid. He is not spectacular, he is reliable. Often players like that do not attract our attention much. Furthermore, St. Brown is headed to a bad team with a mediocre quarterback. In most ways, this is a recipe for lackluster fantasy production. However, if you are searching for an under-the-radar rookie who has a path to opportunity in 2021, St. Brown might be worth a look.
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