The Packers drafting a wide receiver?! Whatever next?
Green Bay did the unthinkable and actually drafted a wide receiver, but how does Amari Rodgers’ skillset fit the Green Bay system, and how does his fantasy production project going forwards? Find out in today’s 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
Profile & College Production
After a fairly quiet freshman season in which he accumulated 123 receiving yards, Amari Rodgers saw an uptick in production in his second year – registering 55 receptions (71 targets), 575 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Rodgers then suffered a torn ACL before his junior season, although he missed just one game. His usage, however, remained fairly limited. In total he saw 40 targets, reeling in 30 receptions for 425 yards and four touchdowns.
Rodgers was behind the likes of Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, and Hunter Renfrow across much of his first three years but saw much-improved production in his final year. He became Trevor Lawrence’s go-to target in his senior year and the receiver truly broke out, recording his strongest season. In total, he registered 1,020 receiving yards and seven touchdowns from 77 receptions and 99 targets. As a result, last season Rodgers finished fourth in college football in receptions and joint-tenth in receiving yards, according to PFF.
Rodgers, who stands at 5-foot-9 and 212 lbs, projects to primarily play in the slot at the next level. During his final two seasons at Clemson, he played 90.4% and 86.3% of his snaps from the slot, respectively according to PFF. Rodgers’ greatest attribute he will bring to Green Bay is his yards after catch ability. He amassed a total of 613 yards after the catch in 2020, which ranked second-most amongst receivers in college football last season.
Short-Term
Rodgers instantly steps into an explosive offensive system and a significant opportunity for touches. Last season the Packers ranked first in points scored, joint second in yards per play, and fifth in offensive yards. The team’s leading receiver Davante Adams received just under a 30% target share in 2020, and the team will surely look to ease the burden on the veteran and take advantage of the softer coverage elsewhere.
The Packers have also reportedly been seeking a player with Rodgers’ skillset and there is an obvious need for someone Matt LeFleur and Nathaniel Hackett can use creatively as a gadget-type of player. Reports from The Atheltic’s David Lombardi suggest that Green Bay wanted to draft Brandon Aiyuk a year ago before the 49ers jumped ahead of them.
In recent years the team has tried to be creative with the likes of Tyler Ervin, but Rodgers brings a unique skill set to this wide receiver room – and one which could be utilized immediately. When talking about Amari Rodgers, offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett recently said, “without a doubt, he’s going to do some cool things for us this upcoming year”. He added Rodgers was “not intimidated by what we’re handing to him” and that he would “develop with time”.
This all may be standard ‘coach speak’ we hear during this period of the off-season. However, the limited options at receiver outside of Davante Adams, particularly in the slot, suggest Rodgers will see a healthy amount of playing time in his rookie season.
Long-Term Prospects
“You guys aren’t understanding, I want the player”. These were the words Gutekunst used regarding trading up for Amari Rodgers in a post-draft press conference, referencing the late Ted Thompson and their move up for Clay Matthews.
Loved this from Gutekunst. Asked about trading up for Amari Rodgers, he told a story about Ted trading up for Clay Matthews… pic.twitter.com/6Etn7XwMSU
— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) May 2, 2021
Rodgers became the highest-drafted receiver drafted by Packers since Ty Montgomery in 2015, and the front office clearly holds the former Clemson Tiger receiver in high regard with their move up to acquire his services.
An obvious concern around Amari Rodgers’ long-term fantasy success is around his namesake –Aaron Rodgers and his long-term future as the team’s quarterback. Trade rumors have been circulating in recent months but, at the time of writing, last season’s MVP remains a member of the Green Bay Packers.
Looking at the way the organization restructured contracts and brought back key pieces many expected them to lose, such as Aaron Jones and Preston Smith, the team appears to be aiming for one more season with the current group before tearing it all down, potentially next offseason.
However, even with Jordan Love under center, Amari Rodgers has a strong possibility of becoming a weekly PPR-flex play in the future. There is a good chance Rodgers can develop into a safety blanket for the new quarterback and creative tool in the Deebo Samuel mold for LaFleur and co.
Another aspect to note around Rodgers is the contract situations within the wide receiver room. As it stands, Rodgers is the only Packers receiver under contract in 2022. While the team will expect to keep a selection of Adams, Lazard, MVS, and Funchess, Rodgers is likely to see a significant jump in playing time next season.
Fantasy Outlook
Expectations for Rodgers in his rookie season should be kept fairly low. While the reports from camp have been positive, we should expect Rodgers’ early-season work to come on special teams. On the first day of mandatory minicamp, he was reportedly first in line to return punts. His early snap share percentage should be closely monitored during pre-season and during the early weeks of the season, as the unique skill set he brings to Green Bay could see him become a waiver wire pickup and an occasional flex play later in the season.
His longer-term dynasty prospects, however, are much more interesting. The uncertainty at quarterback, particularly after this season, may mean his value remains fairly subdued. From next year onwards, Rodgers appears to have a much clearer path to fantasy relevance and could rise towards WR3 territory if utilised correctly.