Today, our 4-EYED Dynasty Target profile is going to focus on Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts.
Nyheim Hines is going into his fourth season in the league which means he is going to be playing for that all-important second contract, whether that be continuing with the Indianapolis Colts or moving on to hopefully greener pastures on some other team. A top-the-depth chart in Indy is second-year teammate Jonathan Taylor a.k.a the expected lead back of the 2021 Colts offense. The hype behind Taylor is sky-high coming off of an RB4 (PPR) finish in his rookie season. While Taylor is getting all of the attention though, let’s not forget that Hines STILL finished as the RB24 (PPR) in 2020 playing a complementary role on this Colts offense. Being that fantasy-relevant as the RB2 on a team with a running back such as Taylor ahead of him on the depth chart certainly helps to make the case for Hines being a fantastic dynasty target in PPR leagues for the short and long term while in Indy.
Hines’ 193.2 fantasy points (PPR scoring) were the most for any season in his young career, as were his 12.1 points per game average. Hines ranked as the RB26 in a PPG basis for running backs that played in at least 10 games this season. It’s clear that Hines didn’t factor into the run game of the Colts last year since he only topped more than 10 carries or 50 yards rushing twice in the 16 games that he suited up for. This is especially interesting since Taylor sat Week 12 when the Colts played the Tennessee Titans, and Hines took “advantage” of the opportunity with only 10 rushing attempts for 29 yards. Now, the theme for Hines was clear from the jump last season that he was going to be a large factor in the receiving game for the Colts as he had at least four receptions in eight games last year maxing out at eight receptions in both Weeks 1 and 12. Despite his struggles in the running game, Hines tied a career-high with 63 receptions in 2020 leading the Colts in both receptions and receptions per game (3.9).
In 2020, Hines carried the ball 89 times for 380 yards and three touchdowns. He ranked 54th in rushing attempts, 50th for rushing yards, and 39th in rushing touchdowns for RBs that logged at least 75 rushing attempts. Whether it be breakaway runs, breakaway %, elusiveness, missed tackles forced, or first downs gained on the ground Hines struggled to crack the top-35 of running backs. When it comes to being a pure runner, over the course of his career, Hines does enough to get by and keep the defenses guessing, but he isn’t going to be an every-down guy and his ADP reflected that heading into the 2020 season. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com in 2020, Hines’ ADP was RB45 in dynasty leagues. He simply doesn’t run well enough to be a workhorse back in the NFL, but his receiving usage is what gives him great fantasy value even in a complementary role in his own backfield and THIS is why I consider him a valuable dynasty target to acquire.
There were 13 running backs that had at least 56 targets in 2020. Hines ranked third among them in targets (75), receptions (64), yards (482), and he was tied for second with four receiving touchdowns. Hines had 479 yards after the catch which was fourth amongst those running backs. Hines made a season out of being able to catch the ball and get out into space. While he was responsible for 24 first downs on the ground (ranked 43rd), his 24 receiving first downs were good enough for fourth among any running back that got a single target all season.
Hines was most targeted right near the line of scrimmage with his aDOT (average depth of target) coming in at 0.7 yards. Because of this, Hines’ Quarterbacks were able to have a rating of 111.2 which is the highest QBR for QBs targeting running backs with at least 56 receptions. According to PFF’s Premium Stats, for any running back that received a single target in 2020, Hines was the highest-graded running back when it came to pass routes. His new QB Carson Wentz is going to know that he has a reliable safety net that he can easily check down to, and combined with his 7.5 YAC average, Hines is going to be able to bail Wentz out early and often.
I know that Hines isn’t the “sexy” pick and his price may be slightly higher since he did finish as the RB24 in PPR, but he has shown consistency in his involvement in the passing game and fantasy point scoring department despite the presence of Taylor. This makes him a great dynasty target going forward in PPR leagues. Jonathan Taylor is the Colts RB that is getting all of the hype and being launched to the moon, so pick up Hines for cheap and know that you don’t have the moon, but you have a fantasy star.
