After Jeff Wilson Jr had the best year of his short career in 2020 and enjoyed some promising performances towards the end of the season, there is hope the 49ers running back can take another step forward this coming year.
Wilson amassed a total of 600 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 126 attempts in 2020, representing a healthy 4.8 yards per carry. This ranked 14th in the league amongst running backs last season. He also added a further 133 yards and three touchdowns through the air from 13 receptions (28 targets). Wilson was in fact the most used 49ers running back in 2020 with a total of 139 touches, ahead of Mostert (120 touches) and McKinnon (114 touches).
Wilson displayed his big-play ability numerous times last season, with seven rushes of at least 15 yards. This represented a 5.6% breakaway rate, the joint 8th highest figure amongst running backs in the league. He also certainly had a nose for the endzone in 2020, scoring a total of ten touchdowns – seven on the ground and three through the air. Wilson was the only 49ers player to reach ten touchdowns; the next highest was rookie Brandon Aiyuk with seven.
Wilson clearly demonstrated his effectiveness and ability to handle a larger workload in the fantasy championship finals weekend, the week 16 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. He rushed for a career-high 183 yards and a touchdown, with an additional 21 yards receiving and a touchdown through the air on his only reception of the game. With Mostert out injured, Wilson had a tremendous end to the year. Over the final three weeks of the regular season, Wilson rushed a total of 58 times for 319 yards and two rushing touchdowns, plus an additional 33 yards and two touchdowns through the air from four receptions (13 targets).
We should certainly not expect a workhorse level workload for Wilson; the 49ers are still likely to pursue a running back by committee approach going forwards. Wilson, however, has proven he can handle a much larger workload and has an opportunity to receive an uptick in touches this coming season.
Wilson has a good chance of doing just that this year. This off-season he signed a one-year $2m contract to keep him in San Francisco for another year, and there is a clear path to an uptick in usage in this offensive system. Tevin Coleman, who admittedly did not have a huge role last year, has left in free agency to join Robert Saleh in New York. And the two of the remaining running backs, Mostert and Jerick McKinnon, have both had injury issues in recent years and will both be 29 by the time the 2021 season starts. At this stage, Raheem Mostert would be the presumptive starter but played in just eight games last season. There is therefore a clear opening for Wilson to emerge as the protagonist in the 49ers backfield.
The upcoming NFL should also not be too much of a concern for those wishing to invest in the former North Texas back. San Francisco has shown a clear reluctance to draft running backs with early-round picks in recent years, relying on their highly efficient scheme and often undrafted free agents to get the job done. Given the injury history among the Niners running backs and the fact that Tevin Coleman left in free agency, we should expect them to add to the running back room, but following the 49ers’ recent moves, it looks increasingly unlikely it will be an early-round pick. As part of their trade up to the number 3 pick, San Francisco also gave up their 3rd-round pick this year. As a result, it is highly unlikely the team change their recent strategy and draft a running back early, especially given other needs on the team. All of this subsequently means that Jeff Wilson is likely to have a clear role in the team this coming year, whatever San Francisco does at the position in the draft.
Wilson remains a tremendous value in dynasty, currently ranking as the RB47, according to FantasyData’s dynasty rankings. He presents an affordable option for dynasty managers, who could at least be a weekly flex starter should we see his usage increase. If that is the case, Wilson could be an extremely shrewd target for dynasty managers looking for added depth at the running back position this off-season and a player who could be flipped for a healthy profit during the season should his stock grow.
