4-EYED DYNASTY TARGET: James Robinson
In today’s 4-EYED DYNASTY TARGETS article we’ll be discussing why James Robinson is an asset you’ll want to heavily invest in for the 2021 season!
Undrafted free agent James Robinson broke out in a big way in the 2020 season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 5 ft. 10, 220 lb. RB out of Illinois State was a beneficiary of circumstance as the Jaguars backfield rid itself of Leonard Fournette in the preseason and was plagued by injury and Covid-19, opening the door to his starting role. For an otherwise dismal season for the Jaguars, Robinson was one of, if not THE, bright spots for this team.
Robinson’s collegiate career consisted of 4,444 rushing yards and 44 rushing touchdowns, and he was applauded for his speed and strength combo at his size. He wasted no time putting this on display in the NFL, rushing 32 times for 164 yards and a TD in his first two games.
Taking advantage of the opportunity he was given, Robinson played in 14 games and ran the ball 240 times for 1,070 yards, and seven TDs. He added 49 receptions on 60 targets for an additional 344 yards and three TDs receiving. He finished as the RB7 in .5-PPR scoring in 2020.
Robinson had at least 10 fantasy points in each game this season and averaged 16.1 points per game which was the sixth best total for RBs that played in at least 14 games. Robinson’s best game of the season was against the Chargers where he had 22 rushes for 119 yards and a TD and four receptions for 18 yards and an additional TD receiving.
So what makes Robinson so good?
He’s a solid runner that is elusive for his size and is hard to bring down on first contact. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), looking at running backs that had at least 189 rushing attempts, Robinson ranks as the ninth most elusive. What does this mean? It means that Robinson excels at either breaking tackles or avoiding them altogether. For broken tackles, Robinson ranked 12th with 16 broken tackles. That being said Robinson’s elusiveness REALLY shines when avoiding tackles. Not only does he rank 10th in avoided tackles while rushing, but he ranks third for all running backs in avoiding tackles when receiving the ball.
Robinson was like a silent assassin in the receiving game. He had the second-highest catch percentage of all RBs that played 50% of their teams snaps at 87.5%. Robinson had 3.18 yards after first contact (sixth-best in the league) and 8.06 yards after the catch per reception (fourth-best in the league) last season. In the redzone, Robinson had five targets, five receptions, and three TDs. Plus, he did all of this with either Gardner Minshew or Mike Glennon at Quarterback who rank (out of QBs that had at least 120 dropbacks) 17th and 36th, respectively, in NFL Passer Rating. Jake Luton didn’t have enough dropbacks to qualify for that ranking, but his passer rating was 54.4 for the season for those that wondered.
Robinson has the ability to gain short yardage consistently (4.46 yards per attempt), but he also has the chance to break of a big run. According to PFF, Robinson had 20% of his yardage come from “breakaway” plays which are designed runs that went for 15 yards or more. This is the 10th highest percentage for running backs with at least 189 rushing attempts, right behind Dalvin Cook.
The Jaguars hold the coveted number one overall draft pick in April’s draft and are expected to draft their QB of the future. They do have a number of other picks, but also other areas that need attention. Even if they have a complimentary back that helps them get down the field, Robinson is going to still get work overall, and he should specialize as the redzone back with his efficiency. When you look at Robinson’s numbers, 30 of his rushes, five receptions, 168 yards, and all ten of his TDs came from inside the redzone giving him the sixth most redzone TDs for running backs.
Outlook
Looking forward, Robinson will turn 23-years-old right before the next season starts. With one year under his belt as the RB7, the Jaguars are building for the future and the resume that he put up in year one should be enough to give him that chance to be their starting back in 2021 and possibly beyond. They very well could draft an RB at some point, but I don’t think that automatically drops Robinson’s value. I am all aboard the Robinson hype train and I think that the Jags address other needs in the draft and the starting RB job will be Robinson’s to lose.