Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson exceeded expectations for fantasy managers in 2020, after a solid rookie season the year prior. However, with some worried about the number of drops he suffered last year, the former third-round pick may be more affordable than expected.
Sophomore Season
Last season Johnson recorded 88 catches from a staggering 144 targets, accumulating 923 yards and seven touchdowns across the regular season. As a result, Johnson ranked sixth in targets and joint-13th in receptions in the league. Amongst one of the best wide receiver groups in the league, Johnson cemented himself as the number one option for Big Ben. He finished as the WR23 in FanDuel scoring, according to FantasyData, marginally behind his two teammates – Juju Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool.
The former Toledo receiver had a couple of injury issues early in the year but quickly became a reliable fantasy asset. Johnson was heavily integrated into the Steelers’ offensive scheme throughout the season, recording ten games with at least ten targets last season, and seven games with at least eight catches.
Because of the rhetoric around the struggles with drops, it is easy to forget just how good Johnson was in the final few weeks of 2020. Over the second half of the season, in particular, Johnson was the clear focal point of the Steelers offense and was a regular fantasy producer. Between week 9 and week 16, Johnson reeled in 60 catches from 96 targets, amassing a total of 595 receiving yards and four touchdowns. As a result, Johnson was the most targeted receiver in the league during this time, ranking third in receptions (only behind Adams and Diggs who both had 66) and eighth in receiving yards.
Over this period, he provided fantasy managers with consistent production, only scoring fewer than 10 points twice in FanDuel scoring, according to FantasyData. Johnson averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game over those eight games, ranking as the WR5 according to Rotoviz.
Big Ben
Big Ben is now another year older and is likely entering his final year in the NFL. Ignoring the 2019 season in which he only played in two games, Roethlisberger had his lowest net yards per attempt last season at just 6.3, versus an average of 7.7 over his career. His 2020 figure ranked 29th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks, and it appears unlikely it will increase significantly this coming season.
Johnson is a clear beneficiary, given his usage in the offensive system. His average depth of target stood at 7.9, versus a whopping 13.2 for Claypool. The fear for Claypool managers will be whether Ben will continue to be able to throw downfield consistently, given his elbow injury in 2019 and the fact we have seen a number of quarterbacks struggle with the deep ball in the final years of their career. If Big Ben’s production does regress, Diontae Johnson managers can rest easy knowing he has produced with inefficient quarterback play before – given his solid rookie season with Mason Rudolph and ‘Duck’ Hodges throwing him the ball.
Johnson’s usage may also be helped by Pittsburgh’s inefficient running game. Pittsburgh had 656 passing attempts in 2020, the most across the league. This meant the team threw on over 60% of their plays last season, the most in the league. While the front office is likely to attempt to address this in the upcoming draft, it is important to remember that the team has lost three starting offensive linemen this off-season in left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, center Maurkice Pouncey, and guard Matt Feiler. The Steelers are therefore likely to still be fairly pass-heavy in 2021, albeit possibly not to the heights of last season, which should keep Johnson’s volume high.
Drops
And so to the elephant in the room – the drops. It’s difficult to find a post on Twitter concerning Diontae Johnson without someone commenting about the number of drops underneath. Admittedly, the numbers from last year are slightly concerning. Johnson had 13 drops last season, the most in the league, which represented a 9% drop rate, ranking tenth highest.
“It has to do with a little bit of overthinking,” he said late in the season.
The promising thing is that after being benched in week 14 due to drops Johnson responded admirably. He returned to form in the following two games – being heavily utilized in both. Then in the (rather crazy) wild card playoff matchup against Cleveland, Johnson was again the key, securing 11 catches for 117 yards from 16 targets. While the drops are clearly less than ideal, the fact that the team still had plenty of faith in the young receiver should give fantasy managers confidence that his volume will remain high and that he can overcome the issue.
Conclusion
Johnson, who does not turn 25 until July, currently ranks as WR20 according to FantasyData’s dynasty rankings. This is four spots ahead of Juju Smith-Schuster and seven ahead of Chase Claypool, although Johnson is often seen being taken after his two teammates in start-ups. Given the narrative surrounding Diontae Johnson’s drops this off-season, he should be viewed as an ideal buy-low target, who could take a further step forward this coming season. With rookie fever now in full swing, it is worth seeing whether a late first in a Superflex league would be enough to tempt the Diontae manager to part with him.
