With all change at quarterback for the Bears in 2021, It’s an interesting time to look at some of their fantasy-relevant receiving options. Darnell Mooney slotted in seamlessly behind Allen Robinson as the Bears number two pass catcher in his rookie year and here we’ll explore what we can expect from the speedster in his sophomore campaign.
College Metrics
Darnell Mooney put up some impressive numbers whilst playing for one of the more run-heavy offenses in college football whilst at Tulane. A four-year contributor for the Green Waves, Mooney posted 154 receptions, 2,572 yards & 19 TDs. When looking for an NFL prospect at the WR position there are a few metrics dynasty players should be using, the two most important are:
College Dominator Rating – % of team’s offensive production (20-35% is expected. Sub 20% is a red flag whilst > 35% could be an indicator of elite talent/production at the next level)
Breakout Age – Age the player first posted a dominator rating above 20%. The younger the player, the more likely they are to become phenomenal at their craft. The 20% metric is only applicable to WR’s.
The three other metrics I like to use are College YPR, College Target Share & 40 Yard Dash time. The first two help me to build an understanding of the player’s usage and ability to create separation at the college level, whilst the latter is self-explanatory, slow WR’s are typically unsuccessful WR’s.
Darnell Mooney has some impressive numbers where these stats are considered, as shown in the table below:
| METRIC | SCORE | PERCENTILE |
| College Dominator Rating | 36.5% | 71st |
| Breakout Age | 18.9 | 93rd |
| College Target Share | 28.0 | 77th |
| College Yards Per Reception | 17.8 | 84th |
| 40 Yard Dash Time | 4.38 | 95th |
As we can see from the above table, Darnell Mooney placed inside the 90th percentile in two of five important rookie WR indicators, whilst maintaining an above 70th percentile in each of the five. Typically, we would like to add a high draft capital to scores like this. Unfortunately, Mooney lasted until the 5th round, being selected 173rd overall, but it is important to remember that the Bears deemed it necessary to trade up for Mooney which typically means they had him valued substantially higher on their board than where he was drafted.
Rookie Campaign
Per Pro Football Focus*, Mooney appeared in every single game for the Chicago Bears as a rookie, posting 61 receptions, 631 yards & 4 touchdowns from 94 targets. Mooney led the Bears in two important efficiency metrics in 2020: his average depth of target (aDOT) which was 11.8 and his yards after catch per reception (YAC/REC) was 4.5. These numbers led the Bears and were good enough to rank 19th (aDOT) & 22nd (YAC/REC) in the NFL in 2020, both of which placed Mooney in the top 5 for rookie WR’s. Impressive aDOT and YAC/REC numbers show that Mooney possesses the ability to utilize his speed and route-running ability to separate down the field and make plays once the ball is in his hands. Interestingly, Mooney did lead all WR’s in the percentage of snaps on the field during passing plays (96.9% per PFF) with teammate Allen Robinson in a close second place. Whilst this possibly points to the lack of options behind the two pass catchers, it does give us a great indication that Mooney has already won the trust of his coaches and can expect plenty of game time in his sophomore campaign and beyond.
Situation
With the Bears reportedly making Anthony Miller available via trade for inexplicably punching New Orleans Saints Defensive Back C. J. Gardner-Johnson in the Wildcard Round game and with fellow rookie, Javon Wims having served a two-game suspension for punching the same player earlier in the season(!) it’s fair to say question marks are surrounding the Bears receiving corps after Mooney and Robinson who accepted his Franchise Tag a couple of weeks ago.
Andy Dalton has been named the starter at QB for 2021 after the release of former first-round pick Mitch Trubisky. Whilst I’m not sure if that’s an upgrade or not, I am certain that Dalton is a lesser athlete than the Bills new backup. so, when you remove the rushing aspect Trubisky brings and replace it with Dalton I do expect at least a small upturn in pass attempts from a Bears team that ranked inside the top 10 for passing attempts as a team in 2020.
2021 Outlook
Whilst we saw some good stuff from Mooney in his rookie year and can feel confident with his impressive college efficiency metrics, it did all translate to only 7.6 fantasy points per game in 2020, and whilst I’m high on Mooney’s potential we do have to live with his reality. In this Bears offense I find it hard to envision a situation in which the Bears can offer us two viable fantasy starters at the WR position in 2021, but with dynasty, I like to take a chance on talent and Mooney undoubtedly has it. I was recently quoted a 2022 1st round pick for Mooney, and whilst that was a little too rich for my blood I can see where the owner was coming from. If you can convince the Mooney owner in your league to move on for a mid to late 2021 2nd round pick, I think that offers fair value now with nice upside for the buyer if Mooney reaches his potential.
