4-EYED DYNASTY TARGET: D’Andre Swift
The Detroit Lions used the third pick in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft to take D’Andre Swift as the second running back off the board. A number of analysts had Swift as the top back in that 2020 class, ahead of the first back taken, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and even the highly touted Jonathan Taylor. Like many 2020 rookies, Swift got off to a bit of a slow start, but his usage and production increased late in the season. While the situation in Detroit provides both promise and pitfalls for Swift, he should be someone you target in your dynasty leagues.
Background
Swift had very solid college production to go along with an above average 40-yard dash time of 4.48. He came into the league with high expectations, but ceded touches to Adrian Peterson for much of the early part of the season. Swift’s snap share did not break 45.6% until week 8 but, after missing three games with a concussion in Weeks 11 to 13 (following a season high 77.8% week 10 snap share), it never dipped below 56.4% the rest of the season, including two games above 64% in weeks 15 and 16. He is a good route runner and logged at least four targets in all but two of the thirteen games he played in 2020, so his usage in the passing game was steady from the jump. You want your running backs to have pass catching ability as much as possible, and Swift has the skill set to be a three-down back moving forward.
The generally increased usage later in the season yielded positive results for Swift. Despite playing in three fewer games than fellow running backs Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, Swift led Detroit backs in TDs (10) total FanDuel fantasy points (166.8) and FanDuel fantasy points per game (12.8), according to Fantasy Data. He was able to produce these results on a team that rated in the middle of the pack in Pro Football Focus’s grades for run blocking and overall offense, and near the bottom in grades for rushing offense. If Detroit can improve their offensive line even a little bit, Swift will be dealing with fewer instances of backfield penetration and more open running lanes. With a full preseason this year, and being the lead back from day one, Swift will assuredly improve on his 2020 mark of 878 total yards from scrimmage.
In fact, Swift was RB10 in 0.5 PPR points per game from Week 10 on last year, according to Fantasy Pros. He gained 47.9% of his total scrimmage yards in that stretch, despite missing those three aforementioned games. In that same portion of the season — his final five games — he matched his red zone carries (10) from his first nine games. As the season progressed, Swift was taking on a bigger role in the offense, and his patient fantasy managers benefitted.
Given the lack of high end pass catchers on the team beyond T.J. Hockenson (Detroit lost Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. to free agency), and given the downgrade at QB with Jared Goff (6.3 air yards per attempt, according to Player Profiler), Swift should get fed plenty of touches in both the passing and rushing game moving forward. Additionally, the Lions’ poor defense will not improve significantly overnight, and that is usually good for offensive production in fantasy.
Fantasy Outlook
But the situation in Detroit is not without its possible pitfalls. The downgrade at QB and overall offensive struggles we expect to see there could actually limit Swift’s overall production, especially when it comes to touchdowns. And while the newly added Jamaal Williams is being paid backup money and did not prevent Aaron Jones from thriving in Green Bay (Jones was RB5 in total FanDuel points and RB6 in Fanduel points per game, according to Fantasy Data), he could potentially cap Swift’s ceiling. Furthermore, the rebuild in Detroit might take a little longer than we would like to see given the shorter shelf life for running backs. Still, Swift is a solid buy in dynasty. He is young, has lots of talent, and will see plenty of opportunities.
Dynasty Outlook
D’Andre Swift, who just turned 22 in January of this year, provided increased fantasy production as the 2020 season progressed and enters the 2021 season as the featured back in Detroit. While the offense may struggle at times this upcoming season, Swift will be its centerpiece, garnering high volume. It is possible the Swift manager in your dynasty league is nervous about the Lions’ overall prospects and the addition of Williams, so now might be a good time to send an offer. With rookie fever upon us and with draft pick values reaching their peak soon, including picks in the offer may be the best approach.