4-EYED DYNASTY TARGET: D.J. Moore
In today’s 4-EYED DYNASTY TARGETS article series, we’ll be discussing why D.J. Moore is an asset you’ll want to heavily invest in for the 2021 season and beyond!
Prior to the 2020 season expectations around Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore were high, with the hope he would take a further step forward after a solid first two seasons in the league. His output, however, was somewhat frustrating for fantasy managers given his pre-season ADP. Moore saw a total of 113 targets, reeling in 66 catches for 1,193 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the WR22 in FanDuel scoring, according to FantasyData.
There are, however, plenty of positives to highlight from the 2020 campaign. Moore had at least 90 receiving yards in just over half the 15 games he played last season and led the team in receiving yards. His production did also improve in the last few weeks of the season. Over his final five games Moore had at least eight targets in each game, including three with more than ten targets, and amassed at least 100 yards in three games.
Additionally, Moore’s playmaking ability was on show multiple times last year as his aDOT jumped to 13.2 from 11.1 a year prior, the fifth highest amongst receivers with 100+ targets.
Moore has now reached 1,100 receiving yards in each of his last two seasons, and over that time frame he ranks fifth in receiving yards amongst wide receivers. It is easy to forget how young Moore is at just 23 years old (soon to be 24). The former Terrapin’s contract is up at the end of this season, although his fifth-year option will inevitably be picked up. Following that, a bumper multi-year contract beckons. It is hard to imagine the team moving on from Moore given his production so far in his career. Investing in Moore should therefore give you a player with a secure role as he reaches his prime.
The Supporting Cast
Importantly, Carolina appears to be an organization on the up, with former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule at the helm, a young innovative offensive mind in Joe Brady at offensive coordinator, and an ambitious owner in David Tepper. The offense, in particular, took a step forward in 2020, with three receivers reaching 1,000 receiving yards – free agent signing Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and Moore. However, it is worth noting that Curtis Samuel is set to leave this off-season, and Robby Anderson is a free agent next year. At that point, Anderson would be entering the 2022 season as a 29-year-old, and it is uncertain whether he would be retained.
The quarterback position on the other hand has been an issue. Since entering the league, Moore has played under three main quarterbacks: Cam Newton as he was starting to decline, Kyle Allen (with a little Will Grier sprinkled in), and Teddy Bridgewater. This has clearly affected Moore’s production. Amongst players with at least 100 targets last year, Moore ranked fourth lowest in catchable target rate according to PFF; just 65% of his 113 targets were deemed ‘catchable’.
The front-office, however, appears determined to find a franchise quarterback this off-season.
David Tepper does not seem like the type of owner who will settle for a mediocre option going forward, and as Breer illustrated, the fact that the Panthers were reportedly not interested in Wentz demonstrates they will be selective and get ‘their guy’. If they do not pull off a blockbuster trade, I expect Carolina to be aggressive in the draft. It would not be a surprise to see them trade up for whoever they believe will be their franchise quarterback, whether that be Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Mac Jones, all four of whom have been selected as Carolina’s first-round pick in recent industry mock drafts.
So what does this all mean for D.J. Moore? The bottom line is that the quarterback play should improve going forward, whatever decision the Panthers’ front office decides to make, and Moore’s production should therefore see an uptick too.
Touchdowns
The obvious downside to DJ Moore’s fantasy production since entering the league has been the lack of touchdowns, scoring just ten in his first three seasons combined, including four last season. In fact, Moore has never been a proficient touchdown scorer, even back to his college days. In his most successful season, his junior year at Maryland, Moore scored eight receiving touchdowns, with an additional touchdown on the ground.
The lack of scoring since he was drafted into the NFL appears to be largely team related. In the past two years, the Panthers have scored the fewest passing touchdowns, with just 33. This is partially due to a below-average quarterback play, but also due the above-average number of rushing touchdowns. In 2019, Carolina was the only team to score more rushing touchdowns than receiving and were one of only five teams to do so last season. In the last three years, rushing touchdowns have accounted for 47.9% of the team’s total touchdowns, the highest share in the league. Although McCaffrey’s return should mean a continued high number of rushing touchdowns, more competent quarterback play and natural regression, could easily shift the odds in the other direction.
Conclusion
All in all, I would be trying to acquire DJ Moore before a quarterback solution is found. Given the uncertainty, and the slightly underwhelming 2020 given pre-season expectation, his value appears to be slightly supressed at the moment. Moore is currently the WR10 in FantasyData’s dynasty rankings, although he can often be drafted slightly later in start-ups. There appears to be a good chance Deshaun Watson doesn’t move at all, but if he was to move to Carolina, Moore’s value would skyrocket. Whether it is Deshaun Watson or a rookie, his outlook will improve, albeit to a varying degree. By all accounts, this appears to be a strong quarterback class, and we can hopefully expect continued improvement in the Panthers’ offense in the coming years. As the presumptive WR1 on the team in the coming years, Moore should be locked into 120+ targets whoever the play-caller is.