Cortland Sutton looked like a rising star early in his thus far short career, but after what looked like a breakout season in 2019, Sutton tore an ACL in week 2 of 2020. He did not get a chance to prove he was going to take another step forward. Sutton is flying under the radar right now as a value pick in startup drafts and is an excellent buy-low candidate as a trade target.
According to Player Profiler, Sutton came out of college at SMU with a dominator rating of 36.9% (72nd percentile) and good speed for his size (4.54 40-yard dash, good for a 105.6-speed score in the 84th percentile), with agility and catch radius scores in the 97th and 90th percentile, respectively. He was drafted in the early second round of the 2018 NFL draft by the Broncos and was generally going in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts. In his 2018 rookie season, with Case Keenum as his quarterback, Sutton grew into the WR2 role behind Emmanuel Sanders, accruing 704 yards and reaching the end zone 4 times. This gave dynasty managers reason for optimism, especially with Sanders moving on to San Francisco in 2019, leaving DaeSean Hamilton as Sutton’s main wide receiver competition for targets.
In 2019, Sutton turned a healthy 125 targets into 1112 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 15.4 yards per his 72 receptions and 9 yards per target. Those numbers came with Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen under center. While a plurality of his 124 targets (52) came on shorter-range passes (0-9 yards), Pro Football Focus graded Sutton at 91.1 or higher in all target depths, including 97.7 on his 23 deep targets (20+ yards). While all that translated to only WR3 fantasy production (WR27 in FanDuel points per game, per Fantasy Data), he maintained a consistent pace throughout the season and the campaign was considered a bit of a breakout for him. Expectations were high heading into 2020, despite being paired with Lock at quarterback.
The 2020 season was, instead, a wash for Sutton, as he tore an ACL in week 2 against Pittsburgh and missed the rest of the season. We did not get to see Sutton take that next step as Denver’s primary receiving threat. However, he remains someone worth targeting in your dynasty leagues.
Sutton’s size (6’3’’ or 6’4” and 216 to 218 pounds, depending on the website you use), athleticism, and age (26 in October) make him a good dynasty asset, as does his situation. He’s proven he can produce with lackluster quarterbacks, and defenses have to worry about other weapons Denver has acquired, such as Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. It will be hard to shut Sutton down without a defense making themselves vulnerable in other places. That should bode well for Sutton’s fantasy production. Furthermore, Lock is known to throw deep more than the average quarterback (11th in deep balls in 2020 despite missing a few games, according to Fantasy Data), so Sutton could benefit from that tendency with more yards and explosive plays. This of course translates into more fantasy points for you each week. Sutton will be the primary passing option for a deep ball quarterback, on a team expected to be playing from behind quite a bit. The formula for fantasy success is in place for Sutton, someone you should be targeting moving forward.
Because of the “out of sight, out of mind” effect and the fact that some dynasty managers might be concerned about the injury, Sutton is falling in startup drafts (I have seen him go as low as the 11th round), presenting some real value, and is also a good “buy low” candidate in trades. Try and see if you can get him for an early second-rounder or late first-round pick. He is a safer bet than the rookies you might get at that area in your drafts. A 2021 finish as a higher-end WR2 would not be surprising, making Sutton a good investment to pursue. If he continues to take steps forward – as he did from 2018 to 2019 – you will benefit from having him on your team.
