After a somewhat disappointing start to his career, especially given that he was a fifth overall pick, Corey Davis seemed to have found his stride in 2020. He signed a three-year $37.5 million contract with the Jets this offseason and might be someone you want to target in your dynasty fantasy football leagues as a solid WR3 in his new situation in New York.
Davis came out of Western Michigan University in 2017 with prolific college production marks (5278 receiving yards and 52 touchdowns) and, according to Player Profiler, an excellent dominator rating (51.6, 96th percentile) and breakout age (18.7, also 96th percentile). The Titans invested heavy draft capital in him, but the small school standout struggled in his rookie season, playing only 11 games and accruing only 375 receiving yards. After a clear step forward in 2018 (112 targets, 891 receiving yards), Davis again underwhelmed in 2019 with 601 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, good for just WR75 in FanDuel fantasy points per game, according to Fantasy Data. He was getting labeled as a bust, and Davis truthers appeared wrong.
In 2020, using that same scoring metric from Fantasy Data, Davis rose to WR30, with career highs of 984 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in only 14 games. He also cut his drop rate from 4.3% to 2.2% (Fantasy Data), and his Pro Football Focus receiving grade rose from 70.6 in 2019 to 85.6 in 2020. Davis was able to take this step forward in a run-heavy offense. Tennessee was the Derrick Henry show, as they amassed 521 rushing attempts in 2020, second only to Baltimore’s 555. Davis averaged 6.57 targets per game and made clutch catches. He had an average target distance of 11.9 yards and totaled 16.9 air yards per reception, while being targeted in the endzone 8 times (after only 3 times in 2019). These numbers help explain his increased fantasy production. A full season with Ryan Tannehill, whose trust he clearly gained, apparently benefited Davis, and he turned his best season as a pro into a lucrative free agent deal with the Jets.
So what can we expect from Davis in his new situation? All indications are that while he will be paired with a rookie quarterback, that quarterback will be a stud prospect drafted second overall. While the case can be made that Sam Darnold was better than his numbers showed and was beset with a bad offensive line and bad coaching, the quarterback situation, even with a rookie, very likely cannot be worse than Darnold in 2021. Additionally, Davis should get good volume in New York, as he is essentially the WR1 working intermediate routes while Denzel Mims serves as the field stretcher. That volume is also a good bet due to the likelihood that, even if the team improves overall in 2021, they should still be playing from behind quite often. Davis could thrive in the Kyle Shanahan offense New York is expected to deploy. The Jets could add a wide receiver in the draft, most likely on day two, but Davis’s role should still be pretty secure even if that happens.
Corey Davis has good size (6’3” 209 lbs.), above average speed (102 speed score, 74th percentile according to Player Profiler), and prospect pedigree, and is only entering his age 26 season. He is coming off his best campaign thus far and is arriving in a potentially promising situation in New York, with what we think will be good coaching and a productive offense. He should maintain higher-end WR3 production and, if things break right, could flirt with WR2 numbers. The arrow appears to be pointing up on Davis, making him a good dynasty target this offseason. His March DLF Superflex ADP is 105.50, WR52 — so he can be acquired at a good value in startups. According to Dynasty Trade Calculator, Davis is roughly equivalent to the 2021 1.10 rookie pick in a 12 team .5 PPR superflex league, but it is probably better to start an offer with an early second rounder or a 2022 first rounder. It is possible the current Davis manager is not a believer, and you can capitalize on that – go check in with them.