The Kansas City Chiefs selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick in the first round of the 2020 draft. While he was not the consensus RB1 of the class among analysts, his landing spot shot him up draft boards in redraft and dynasty. Edwards-Helaire’s skill set in the potent offensive scheme of Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy seemed to be a good match. After mixed results in 2020, CEH has become the poster boy for “talent over landing spot” and he seems to be a divisive player in the dynasty fantasy football community. If you can find an Edwards-Helaire manager that is among the doubters, he could be an interesting buy, as there are some signs his production will improve.
Coming out of college, CEH was not very fast (4.60 40-yard dash time, per Player Profiler), but his low center of gravity, shiftiness, and pass-catching skills made him an attractive prospect. Edwards-Helaire’s opening night performance against Houston — 138 rushing yards and a touchdown — seemed to portend an impressive rookie season for the former LSU standout. However, he only broke 79 rushing yards one other time (161 yards in week 6 versus Buffalo) and surpassed 59 yards receiving in only one game (70 versus Baltimore in week 3). There is also some doubt that CEH can be an effective goal-line back. According to Fantasy Data, he gained only 3 yards on 9 attempts inside the 5 (0.3 yards per attempt) with only 1 TD. To be sure, Edwards-Helaire did not live up to the expectations many folks had in 2020. He has even drawn comparisons to the disappointing Devin Singletary, whose lack of pure speed and questionable goal-line prowess seem to mirror Edwards-Helaire’s.
Edwards-Helaire suited up for but did not play one game (illness, versus Denver), and missed two games and a portion of a third with a knee injury. Still, in 13 games, he did manage 803 rushing yards and 297 receiving yards for a solid 1100 total rookie year scrimmage yards (a respectable 84.6 yards per game). Edwards-Helaire was on the field for at least 51% of the Chiefs’ snaps in 10 of those 13 games (Player Profiler), and he had a 66% running back opportunity share (Fantasy Data), so he was being trusted to a degree. While he did have some disappointing weeks, he made it into RB2 range (24th) in FanDuel fantasy points per game (12.2, according to Fantasy Data) and led all Chiefs backs in fantasy production. Furthermore, Edwards-Helaire ranked 13th in Pro Football Focus’s elusiveness rating among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts in 2020, so he is making people miss when he does get the ball. It should be noted, too, that he was a running back playing in a pass-heavy offense (Kansas City ranked third in passing attempts in 2020, according to ESPN.com) that was graded 12th in run blocking by Pro Football Focus, and one that is not known for targeting running backs often.
So given these positive signs, and the fact that he is tied to a potent offense (graded 4th by Pro Football Focus) and the consensus dynasty QB1 in Patrick Mahomes, there is reason to expect Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production will increase moving forward. According to Fantasy Data, Mahomes’s 25.4 FanDuel points per game were surpassed only by Dak Prescott’s partial season and Marcus Mariota’s one-game performance. Kansas City will move the ball and score, and that rising tide should lift the CEH boat more in 2021 and beyond.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 2020 results were definitely mixed, but there is cause for optimism. Once the coaching staff learns to trust him more (Reid is not known for leaning on rookies), increased opportunities — and thus increased fantasy points — should come. And like all 2020 rookies, he will benefit from a fuller preseason regimen this year. Some of the expectations entering 2020 may have been too high, but there is little reason to doubt CEH can be a solid RB2 in dynasty. Put out some feelers to CEH managers in your leagues; you may find a good price for him in a trade. Consider moving a veteran piece to a contender for him, or offering a late first.
