Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk posted respectable numbers as a rookie in 2020, providing a good return on investment given where he was being taken in rookie drafts. He still produced even when Deebo Samuel was healthy, and he should be paired with a better quarterback after the upcoming NFL draft. Aiyuk is a solid dynasty fantasy football target with WR2 upside in the foreseeable future.
Despite a late breakout age (21.5, 27th percentile) as a junior college transfer, Aiyuk was an attractive prospect coming out of Arizona State University, with an excellent burst score (92nd percentile), a very good dominator rating (81st percentile), and a college YPR in the 87th percentile, according to Player Profiler. The San Francisco 49ers drafted him in the first round, 25th overall, in the 2020 NFL draft. A preseason hamstring injury sidelined Aiyuk in week 1, and a high ankle sprain cost him week 17. He missed two other games on the COVID-19 list.
In the twelve games Aiyuk played, he totaled 96 targets, 60 receptions, 748 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. His true catch rate was 85.7%, according to Fantasy Data. Aiyuk also ran the ball 6 times for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns. This production was good for 12.9 FanDuel points per game, for a rank of WR17 (Fantasy Data), and Pro Football Focus gave him an 80.8 receiving grade. Aiyuk provided solid WR2 production as a rookie and provided a good return on investment for managers that selected him in their rookie or startup drafts.
Some analysts have attributed Aiyuk’s fantasy production to the absence of Deebo Samuel, who missed nine games in 2020 due to injury. They predict Aiyuk will see some regression in production with a healthy Samuel. However, the numbers tell a different story.
In the six games both Samuel and Aiyuk played (weeks 4-7 and weeks 13 and 14), Aiyuk still produced well, averaging 7.67 targets per game and tallying four games of 90 or more yards. In fact, AIyuk had his best games when Samuel was in the lineup with him, including a 16 target, 10 catch, 119 yard game in week 14. Clearly, Aiyuk can be a fantasy asset even with Samuel.
Those who point to Samuel returning as a reason to proceed with caution on Aiyuk have said the two players have similar roles — getting short passes and rushing attempts. But while Smauel’s 2020 average target distance was 2.6 yards and he averaged 16.6 air yards per game, Aiyuk’s average target was 9 yards and his air yards per game was 73 (Fantasy Data). Furthermore, while Aiyuk broke some big runs (12.83 yards per carry), he only had 6 rushing attempts in 12 games in 2020 compared to Samuel’s 8 attempts in 7 games.
There is the matter of George Kittle’s extended absence in 2020 and whether or not that played a role in Aiyuk’s fantasy production. It is hard to know how much effect that had, and it is a legitimate concern if you are looking to acquire Aiyuk in a trade. A healthy Kittle could mean fewer targets for Aiyuk, so there is a bit of risk inherent in pursuing Aiyuk. Almost no player is without some risk, but it is not far-fetched to assume the team recognizes Aiyuk as their WR1 and still gives him a significant role, perhaps relying on Kittle less.
Aiyuk’s quarterback situation could also be a concern, as Jimmy Garoppolo did not play well in 2020 when healthy and seems to be a short-yardage passer, relying on his receivers’ YAC for much of his passing yardage. However, having traded up to the number three spot in the 2021 NFL draft, the 49ers are poised to almost assuredly take a top quarterback prospect. The team has stated they are committed to Garoppolo for 2021, but the future belongs to that incoming quarterback, and Aiyuk will grow alongside him.
Brandon Aiyuk produced as a mid-level fantasy WR2 with an ineffective Jimmy Garoppolo and a heavy dose of Nick Mullens and while missing four games himself. With the future of the San Francisco quarterback position getting brighter, Aiyuk’s fantasy production should remain very good moving forward. His April DLF startup ADP is WR17, right in line with where his production was in 2020, so there is not a whole lot of value there, but he is a good investment. Given that folks are that high on him, he may be difficult to get in a trade, but he is worth about an early first-round pick. Pursue him with confidence.
