Hello, #4EYEDFans!
I don’t think that this will be a controversial statement, but the running back position is the most important position in fantasy football. No matter what format or scoring system a league uses, when you look at most mock drafts or ADP rankings the RB is usually the position that dominates the early rounds of most drafts. With that being said, picking the right running back in a Best Ball league is imperative since you only get one shot at making the right selections. With that being said who are the elites, who could be on the edge of elite status, who do you keep your eye on and who scares the hell out of you?
Elites
Saquon Barkley – New York Giants
Imagine a running back who put up the numbers that Saquon Barkley did in 2018 on a team that had even an average offensive line. In his rookie season Barkley rushed for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns, at a 5 yards per carry clip. Now those numbers are a little deceiving in that some of his numbers were inflated due to one huge run during the game.
-vs. Jacksonville – 106 rushing yards (1 rush for 68 yards)
-vs. Houston – 82 rushing yards (1 rush for 24 yards)
-vs. Philadelphia – 130 rushing yards (1 rush for 46 yards and 1 rush for 50 yards)
This actually speaks more to Barkley’s immense talent more than it does any idea that he is a boom or bust type of running back. Going into this upcoming season, between drafts, free agency and trade, the Giants are attempting to reinvent their putrid offensive line play and provide Barkley with enough protection that will make an already great running back into something potentially unimaginable. Add in his 91 receptions for 721 yards, as well as the fact that he missed 2 games his freshman year at Penn State and has not missed a game since then, Barkley could potentially be the consensus #1 overall pick in most every fantasy draft format.
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys
Since the day that he walked into the NFL, the only opponent that has shut Ezekiel Elliott down has been the NFL themselves. If not for his 6-game suspension in 2017, Elliott would be starting his NFL career off with numbers that are unprecedented. Having rushed for just over 4,000 yards (4.7 ypc) in his first 40 games, it is easy to see why Elliott is #1 or #2 running back on most fantasy draft boards. He has one of the five best offensive lines in football and add in that HC Jason Garrett and QB Dak Prescott have extreme faith in Elliot both in the running game and in the passing game, where he was targeted 95 times in 2018, catching 77 balls for 567 yards and three touchdowns. The other important factor that makes Elliott the stud RB that he and what makes him a Best Ball lock is that he does not get hurt, he has missed two games in his NFL career other than his suspension, but when you average 131 yards from scrimmage per game, you are no-brainer as any pick can be.
Other Elites
Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers; Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints; Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams (potential injury situation)
Injury Redemption
Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles Chargers
If there is one person that is right on the cusp of being an elite level best ball fantasy football running back, it is Melvin Gordon. Over the course the first four years of his career, Gordon has seen rises in most statistical categories. He has rushed for over 1,100 yards, has had double digit rushing touchdown seasons, and has had over 50 receptions. The one thing that has held him back since he came into the league in 2015 is that he has had issues staying healthy, having only played one full season in his first four, Gordon will come into the 2019 season with a high ceiling, but those injury concerns will cause him to potentially fall in a best ball draft. The Chargers have a mediocre offensive line, a potential Hall of Fame QB in Phillip Rivers and an above average crop of receivers and TEs, so that should help in opening up the offense and giving Gordon ample opportunity to put up big rushing numbers as well as maintain his average receiving output. Again, if Gordon can stay healthy, he is a worthy RB to draft in the second to third round of your draft.
Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman is the poster boy for the phrase “high risk, high reward” for a running back in a best ball league. Between 2015 and 2016 Freeman would rush for a total of 2135 yards, and 22 TDs, he would also catch 127 passes for 1040 yards and 5 TDs. However, due to a few concussions, as well as foot and groin injuries, the last two seasons have been injury riddled and mostly ineffective. Playing in only half the Falcons games, including only two in 2018, Freeman would only rush for 933 yards and 7 TDs. At his best, Freeman has shown that he is a top end running back and with the departure of Tevin Coleman, Freeman looks to enter the 2019 season as the Falcons primary running back. However, his status as a high drafted running back in most best ball leagues will take a serious hit. Remember that there is no waiver wire and the team you draft is the one you go through the season with. By taking a running back with the recent injury history of Freeman’s especially in the area of concussion, you will be taking a huge risk if you draft him high based on his previous offensive output. Advice for those playing in the best ball format would be to wait it out, see if Freeman is there in the later rounds and pick him up with the hopes of cashing in on potentially good health throughout the season.
Leonard Fournette – Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette is one of the biggest enigmas in the NFL. A supremely talented running back whose temperament and attitude has clearly angered many within the Jaguars organization. Last season the Jaguars voided the last parts of Fournette’s guaranteed money in his rookie contract and EVP Tom Coughlin called him and teammate T.J. Yeldon disrespectful, selfish and unbecoming of a professional football player for an incident on the sidelines during the last home game of the season. Playing in 13 games his rookie season, Fournette rushed for 1040 yards and 9 TDs, while also catching 36 passes for 302 yards. The former #4 overall pick was poised to have a strong second season, when injuries, a suspension and a general bottoming out of the entire Jaguars team combined to sabotage the season that saw Fournette play in only 8 games and rush for only 439 yards. Going into 2019 Fournette will have to prove that he is not only over his various injuries, but whether he can fit into the team dynamic that the coaching staff envisions. From a best ball fantasy perspective, Fournette remains a risk, will his injuries reemerge and/or will his maturity issues prevent him from reaching his full potential. Before last season he was considered a top 10 running back, this season he is probably a mid-round pick, but his upside is pretty significant if he can remain on the field and focused.
Other Injury Redemption:
Darius Guice, Washington Redskins; Jerrick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers
Something to Prove
David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals
Three seasons ago, David Johnson was the darling of the fantasy football community, two seasons ago he sustained a season ending injury in the first half of the first Cardinals game of the year, and last season he played all 16 games, but was playing on the worst offense in the NFL. So then, what makes David Johnson a top tier player in a best ball fantasy league? This season will be a whole new start for the Cardinals, as new Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury brings the “Air Raid” offense to the desert. Now one would thing that an offense that is based around throwing the ball an obscene number of times does not bode well for a running back, but when Johnson was at his best, the Cardinals were devising schemes that not only took advantage of his running skills, but his pass catching skills as well. Last season Johnson was stuck in an offense that chose to run him up the middle in the true traditional running back mode. Johnson did not fit into that mode, as he is an east-west runner, not north-south. With Kingsbury calling the plays and #1 overall draft pick Kyler Murray most likely starting at QB from day 1, there is going to be a lot of movement, within the Cardinals offense, which potentially will open up Johnson for a big season just from a receiving standpoint.
Le’Veon Bell – New York Jets
What does one need to do when you have just spent a year running wind sprints at a local high school and jet skiing instead of taking a team’s $15 million franchise tag offer? If you are Le’Veon Bell, you need to set out on a quest to prove that the Pittsburgh Steelers were foolish for letting their franchise running back walk away with what may amount to be a compensatory middle round draft pick. The Steelers loss could be the Jets (and fantasy owners) gain. One of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL, Bell is a vastly considerable upgrade to what the Jets had previously with Isaiah Crowell. Over his first five years in the NFL, Bell has averaged 1067 yards rushing (including 556 yards in 2015 when he played in only 6 games), and 7 TDs, while also averaging 62 receptions for 562 yards. He has had a year to heal up from whatever nagging injuries might have been plaguing him, and is still only 27, which means there is plenty of potential for a big season. Drafting Bell high in your best ball league looks to be a risk only in a sense that he will be on surrounded by a team that is inferior to the one he last played on in Pittsburgh in 2017. But talent like Bell is not easy to come by and while he is listed here as someone who has “something to prove” it is a risk that a best ball fantasy owner should be willing to take.
Other Something to Prove:
Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles; Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings; Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns; Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans; Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens
On the Cusp of Greatness:
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks; Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals; James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers; Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns; Philip Lindsay, Denver Broncos
Keep an Eye On:
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions; Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts; Sony Michel, New England Patriots; Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs; Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers; Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
