Today, we continue our Risers and Fallers series looking at the dynasty risers at tight end heading into the 2022 fantasy football season!
What Is a Riser?
I embraced my indecisiveness when writing my dynasty quarterback risers article and wrote about a couple of dynasty quarterbacks who have already risen, and coupe who could rise soon. Well, it looks like I started a trend, as several other articles in our dynasty risers and fallers series have used my format as a model or template if you will. Who am I to undo things now? So today, I will discuss a couple of “has risen” tight ends, and a couple of tight ends who “could rise.”
Disclaimers
Like at quarterback, there are much fewer tight ends playing than other positions like running back and wide receiver. I would add that it’s not uncommon to hear “tight end is a wasteland,” indicating the position’s lack of fantasy-relevant depth. Therefore, there are fewer TE risers one could identify, so there are some clear, obvious choices. So I will address my two favorite “has risen” tight ends, then bring you a couple of guys that you may not have considered in my “could rise” section.
One more note: The trade values I discuss below are based on a tight end premium format of at least +0.5 pts since that is pretty much all I play, and that is what most dynasty leagues use.
Those who have risen…
Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox rewarded the “Be patient with young guys, especially tight ends” faction with a year-three breakout campaign in 2021. He caught 49 passes for 587 yards and 9 touchdowns (all career highs) while missing two games with a hand injury and being limited in a third. Knox continued his good chemistry with quarterback Josh Allen and became an important part of a potent offense.
It should be noted, however, that he only broke 50 receiving yards three times in 2021, and his touchdown rate (18.37% of his receptions) provided a good part of his value this past season, yet could very well decrease in 2022. Additionally, a number of analysts who use analytics/advanced stats are not big on Knox.
Still, Knox took a big step forward in 2021 and his stock rose. From January through September of 2021, Knox’s monthly positional ADP as per Dynasty League Football (DLF) hovered between TE27 and TE40. His December 2021 number was TE10, and he rests at TE11 now based on January 2022 ADP data.
Knox is tied to a great young quarterback (and will not be 26 himself until November), and his role in the offense may grow in 2022, as the team could very well say goodbye to both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley. I am probably higher than consensus on Knox in my current dynasty rankings (TE6 at the time this was written), but either way, he rose a lot in the dynasty community, and might have even been on my “could rise” list. I do not think many people are selling Knox at a good price at the moment, but if you were to try to acquire him, I would see if two second-round picks would do it first, and go from there. Essentially, the good buy window on Knox is closed. I am pretty much holding him, but if I were to trade him, I would level down to a lesser tight end and get a pick or picks added.
Cole Kmet
Can a tight end go from two touchdowns in 2020 to zero in 2021 and still rise? Yes. His name is Cole Kmet.
Kmet may not have had the touchdown growth we were looking for (damn you, Jimmy Graham!), but he got a big bump in usage, including going from 44 targets in 2020 to 93 in 2021 and jumped from 243 receiving yards to 612. He showed a good connection with backup quarterback Andy Dalton, and, importantly, with Justin Fields at times.
The former 2020 second-round NFL draft pick may not have had as good a season as Dawson Knox, and we certainly need to see touchdown production from him soon. All kidding aside, the 35-year-old Jimmy Graham only “vultured” three total touchdowns, but he is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and I doubt the Bears bring him back. That could very well help Kmet in the touchdown department.
He is also tied to a dynamic young quarterback who, if he develops as we expect, could be an elite fantasy QB. Kmet’s DLF positional ADP did not have a drastic change throughout the calendar year ending in January 2022, but he is up to TE13 after being TE18 as recently as November 2021. Kmet is another riser who I am higher on than consensus (TE11 in my dynasty rankings at the time this was written), but he made a big jump and has a lot of promise. I am optimistic about him, so he too would have made my “could rise” list. I am trying to acquire Kmet (where I did not already have him) where I can at a reasonable price. His price does seem to be going up lately, so you might want to move on it soon (maybe start with a second-rounder plus a third – though I would probably want more), and you can be Kmeted like me.
Honorable Mentions:
Those who could rise…
David Njoku
Outside of a pretty good 2018 season (88-56-639-4), David Njoku has largely been a disappointment since being a late first-round pick in the 2017 NFL draft. Most recently, he has had to split tight end snaps with Autin Hooper and Harrison Bryant. Still, with tight end competition, an injured and low-aDOT quarterback, and an offense that is run-heavy, Njoku managed to accrue 475 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2021. He is a good athlete that has had some questions about his hands sometimes, but is a generally capable receiver and can stretch the field.
The could rise here all depends on where Njoku plays in 2022. He is a 25-year old (26 in July) unrestricted free agent but has said before that he wants to play in Cleveland the rest of his career. Spotrac has his market value at a four-year deal of around $27 million (an AAV of $6.7 million). Cleveland’s cap situation is good, though (11th most cap room at just over $25 million). Finally, it looks like somewhat of a buyers’ market at tight end this offseason. All this could spell a return to Cleveland.
If that is ultimately where he plays in 2022, I do not see much chance for him to rise. Conversely, if he were to land on the Chargers, Cardinals, or Bengals, he will join a more dynamic offense and can play a hybrid tight end/slot role that suits his skills. Even the Dolphins (if Gesicki leaves), the Seahawks (if Russ stays), or, yes, the Jets, can provide Njoku more opportunity to produce than he will get in Cleveland. All of those teams have, or will have, a need at tight end, and are not in bad shape cap-wise. Njoku will be a very interesting free agent to keep an eye on this offseason. I have him ranked TE20 in my dynasty rankings at the time this is being written. If he lands in a good spot for 2022, he will almost assuredly rise in those rankings, and his dynasty value could shoot up. Njoku is worth a speculative buy at a reasonable price, perhaps a third-round pick (maybe plus a fourth) or as an add-on in a trade.
Brevin Jordan
Those of you who follow our podcasts (and my tweets this past season) are not surprised to see Brevin Jordan on this list – and might be surprised it took me this long to get to him. I am, after all, the official Brevin Jordan hype man.
Jordan was a pretty good athlete coming out of college, and a number of analysts asserted that he would have been the TE2 in his class (instead of Pat Freiermuth) if not for his lack of blocking skills. I think he was a draft steal in the early fifth round.
Jordan did not have a great rookie season overall, finishing with 20 receptions for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he did have a few solid games and seemed to have a good connection with quarterback Davis Mills, a fellow rookie. While only 4 of Jordan’s 28 targets were in the red zone, he caught all 4 passes and delivered 3 touchdowns. One would imagine Houston might actually make it to the red zone more in 2022.
Things can probably only get better in Houston. I think Mills is underrated and has promise moving forward. (You can read more about that in my quarterback risers article.) I have to think the running game improves even moderately in 2022, which would improve the overall offense and help Mills. Both of those results should benefit Jordan.
Additionally, Jordan’s biggest competition for snaps last year, Jordan Akins, is an unrestricted free agent whom I doubt returns to Houston. Even if he did, he was looking like the TE2 behind Jordan later in the season.
Is Jordan a great tight end (yet)? No – but he has promise and youth and is tied to a young quarterback who is underrated. They should both help each other develop in their second year in the NFL. His “could rise” potential is reflected in his DLF positional ADP. A year ago, as offseason rookie fever took hold, Jordan was already TE16. As the draft approached, and after slipping in the draft, that ranking steadily declined, hitting a low of TE45 in September 2021. The most recent ADP data now shows Jordan back up to TE22. I feel that rank, and of course then his value and price, will keep going up.
I know I am clearly higher on Jordan than consensus. He is my favorite tight end flag plant, ranked at 12 in my dynasty rankings at the time this was written. That is an optimistic ranking based on a few factors, including some other tight ends dropping. Regardless, if the Texans improve at all, and if Jordan continues to progress, he could be a steal relative to where you got him in the startup or a trade. I think Jordan, like Njoku, is a good speculative buy, or someone to get added on to a trade. I would try a third-round pick for him first, but I would expect to have to increase the offer. I would need more if I was the seller, though I do not think I can get top 12 value for him. Go give it a whirl – it will not cost much.