Today, we begin our Risers and Fallers series looking at the Dynasty Risers at Quarterback heading into the 2022 fantasy football season!
So – what is a riser?
Is a riser a player whose dynasty value or ranking has already risen over the course of the 2021 season? Or is it a player whose dynasty value or ranking is about to rise soon in this offseason? The answer is… both. On my own dynasty podcast, my co-host and I used the first definition when we did our end-of-season risers and fallers. Here at FIF, we discussed the possibility of the second definition. Therefore, prone to indecisiveness and valuing having options and flexibility, I am going to give you a couple of QBs that fit each definition. Maybe some might even fit both.. We’ll see…
Those who have risen…
Joe Burrow
With Joe Burrow’s promising 2020 rookie season cut short by a major knee injury, and questions lingering about the overall effectiveness of the Bengals offensive line in protecting Burrow coming off of that knee injury heading into the 2021 NFL Draft, some folks were skeptical about Burrow going into 2021 and wondered what kind of ceiling he really had. I, for one, was pretty high on Burrow and drafted him fairly aggressively in startups. One league even chided me for taking him at 1.07 is a Superflex draft. Those who, like me, bet on Burrow, have since seen their faith in his abilities rewarded, although it took a while to see just how much of a reward our faith had earned us during the course of the 2021 season.
There was a stretch of a few games in the 2021 season that the Bengals were run-heavy in their offensive approach and as a result, led to Burrow not putting up many fantasy points. Burrow himself said the team was trying to establish the run in order to establish a more balanced attack. In fact, Burrow threw for 300 or more yards in only 6 of his 16 games, including 3 games in which he surpassed 400 yards (which of course includes the 525 yard, 4 TD, 80% completion rate Week 16 performance against Baltimore). However, he surpassed 250 yards in 11 of those games and amassed 34 touchdowns against 14 interceptions.
But beyond the stats, Burrow looked like he had grown into the job more as the season progressed. He showed poise, leadership, and looked better under pressure than he did in 2020. All of which is great news for his fantasy managers as those qualities should ultimately lead to higher fantasy point production in coming seasons.
With his growth, this past season, his age (just turned 25 in December), his weapons (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and even an uptick in usage toward the end of the season for C.J. Uzomah), and the case to be made that certain elite quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson may have seen their dynasty value fall off a bit, Burrow’s dynasty stock, in my opinion, has very much so risen. Additionally, he could make a “will rise even more” list for many people including myself. In any event, I can definitely see him being a Top 5 QB in startups this offseason.
Davis Mills
Davis Mills was on my radar entering 2021 rookie draft season. He did not have high draft capital (3rd round, 67th overall), but a number of college and draft analysts said if it were not for an injury during his time at Stanford, and a five-game 2020 season due to COVID regulations, he might have been a late first-round pick. Others speculated that had he stayed in Stanford another year, he could have been the top quarterback in this 2022 rookie class.
Mills started 2021 as a backup to Tyrod Taylor, then was an injury fill-in, and finally emerged as the team’s QB1 later in the year. He threw for over 300 yards three times after Week 7 and threw multiple touchdowns five times on the season. Mills did this with almost no supporting cast, especially a poor running game that couldn’t draw defenses’ attention and open up more play-action for him. Mills showed a good connection with Brandin Cooks and with rookie tight end (a Top-12 for me) Brevin Jordan. I was already higher on him than most, yet Mills still rose in my rankings, now above names like Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins.
So is Mills, like Burrow, also a candidate for the “will rise” list? I cannot confidently answer “yes” at this time. There is some uncertainty about the return of Deshaun Watson and the possibility of the Texans drafting a quarterback with their third overall pick. In my opinion, if Watson plays football again, it will almost definitely not be for the Texans. Additionally, while I think the team might take a quarterback in the upcoming draft, I feel that with so many other needs on the team, Houston would not be making the right move if they took a quarterback at 1.03. I believe Mills has shown enough to warrant a full season as the starter, with hopefully a better team around him.
Honorable Mentions
Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones
Those who will rise…
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields
I suppose I am cheating a little here by doing two at once, but I think their stories are pretty similar heading into this offseason.
No one can look at the 2021 campaign for either Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields and say they had objectively good seasons, perhaps even by rookie quarterback standards. However, both showed flashes (Fields more than Lawrence). I stil have both in my Top 12 quarterback rankings at this time.
The story here, though, is this: Lawrence and Fields were pretty much the consensus QB1 and QB2 entering the 2021 draft. They are still good prospects with high draft capital and high ceilings. Both will have a year under their belt and a year of being exposed to the NFL going into training camp. Both have been liberated from bad coaches, and things can presumably only get better. Their front offices have another offseason to improve the team around them. Finally, both players’ values (and perhaps Lawrence’s more than Fields’) might have taken a hit in your league market and in the dynasty community overall, so the chance of them rising (and the chance of trying to potentially buy them at a dip) could be a good one. I expect both to take a clear step forward in 2022.
Tyler Huntley
I had to shake things up a bit and add a lesser-known name, and a backup to boot. We have not seen much from Huntley in his two seasons in the NFL. He came on people’s radars with some impressive performances filling in for the injured Lamar Jackson, including a 2 pass TDs + 2 rush TDs game against Green Bay in Week 15.
Huntley is an exclusive rights free agent (ERFA), which means as long as the Ravens offer him a one-year contract at the league minimum, he cannot negotiate with other teams. I expect the Ravens to make Huntley at least that offer and keep him for 2022.
So without being able to leave the Ravens, why might his value rise?
Huntley was basically undrafted in startups and was maybe added from waivers as a flyer when Jackson got hurt. Now, moving forward, he should be seen as a priority draft/buy for Jackson managers, and a good draft/buy target for others as perhaps a stash whose production and trade value will increase if Jackson gets hurt again. That is not an unlikely occurrence, as Jackson’s style of play probably makes him a higher risk for injury than many others.