Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player up is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback prospect whose position in mock drafts has swung wildly in recent months, Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Projected Draft Spot:
early to mid-1st round
Potential Suitors:
Panthers, Seahawks, Saints, Steelers
Strengths
What you will often hear with Kenny Pickett is “most pro-ready” and “safe floor.” Both of these labels have merit. Pickett has desired pro size, performed well in a pro-style offense, and throws well to all three levels of the field. He has been given good marks for his ability to make the full-field reads the Pitt offense required, and for his leadership. Pickett has a strong arm that aids tight-window passes and deeper throws outside the numbers. While he is not considered to be as athletic and mobile as prospects like Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Desmond Ridder, Prickett probably gets too little credit for his mobility, as he scrambles well. That mobility and his arm kelp Pickett make good throws on the run and “off-platform.” Pickett enters the draft as the most likely “day one starter” for his new team among the 2022 quarterback class.
Weaknesses
Often, when you describe a player as having a “safe floor,” you inherently also mean he does not have a high ceiling. That seems to be the case with Pickett. While he is well-rounded and pro-ready, Pickett has no elite traits, including the athleticism desired by many NFL teams these days. His touch and accuracy are fine, but could use improvement. As Matt Waldman points out, Pickett does well under pressure, but only if he knows it’s coming. Also, Pickett sometimes ended games badly, seemingly losing all the things that made him a good QB for most of the game. Finally, Pickettt really only had one great year of college production, and not every late bloomer is Joe Burrow.
Player Comparisons
Pickett has been compared to Drew Lock, Tony Romo, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill. Taylor Heinecke, and the aforementioned Joe Burrow. As I see it, there might not be an easily identifiable throughline for these comparisons, but I get the “arm talent, mobile but not very, good improv, solid if not spectacular” vibe when I look at some of those names. And that’s Kenny Pickett.
Best Case Drafted By: Steelers
Since Pickett can step into and learn just about any offensive scheme, and since all the suitors mentioned above could plausibly have him serve as an understudy for a bit, the best fit among them is probably Pittsburgh. Pickett would be playing close to home and on a team with several goof weapons. However, it is pretty doubtful that Pickett makes it down to 20th overall, so this “ideal” landing spot is not realistic. Early mock drafts had the Panthers (6th overall) picking Malik Willis, but given that Willis may not be ready to start for two to three years, Pickett has been mocked there more recently. The Seahawks, with a number of needs beyond quarterback, with Geno Smith and Drew Lock rostered, and with picks 40 and 41 overall to use, are not likely to take Pickett at 9th overall should he get past the Panthers. That would leave the Saints (16th overall), where Pickett has been placed in some recent mocks. None of those teams offer a better scenario than the Steelers.
Worst Case Drafted by: Panthers
What is potentially the worst landing spot for Pickett – Carolina – had appeared to be the most likely, but now there is a good chance they trade out of 6th overall if both top tackles are gone then. The reasons the Panthers might be the worst landing spot are:
1. Quarterback uncertainty with Sam Darnold still rostered and no clear answers from the coaches;
2. The offensive line is in need of a rebuild, and that likely will not get done in one offseason and draft
3. Christian McCaffrey and Robby Anderson could be gone after 2022, and DJ Moore after 2023 based on outs available in their contracts
Fantasy Relevant in 2022?
With Pickett touted as the most pro-ready, day one starter among the quarterbacks in this class, he likely has the best chance to be fantasy relevant. However, there are scenarios in which Pickett would not be relevant. If the Panthers do select him but go with Darnold as the starter, Pickett’s contributions will be limited to whenever Darnold is injured or benched. The chance he would be a backup to start is increased with the other potential suitors mentioned above. And should Pickett be a starter in Carolina or elsewhere, there is a nonzero chance he struggles, as many rookie quarterbacks do. In redraft, I would not be too interested unless it was a superflex/2QB league or I wanted to carry a second quarterback and stash Pickett.