Well, the 2022 NFL Draft is over and we can relax. Not really, it’s time to fire up those rookie drafts. To that end, I’ll be giving some early post-draft analysis on quarterbacks, with a dynasty fantasy football perspective. Let’s get started.
Given that the 2022 draft class was widely considered down class, especially relative to 2020 and 2021 before it, and what we think 2023 will be after it, the potential for a ho-hum, anticlimactic NFL draft was real. However, the uncertainty and fluidity thought the draft class meant almost anything could happen. The NFL draft unfolded in such a way that more so reflected the latter possibility, perhaps especially so at quarterback.
The storyline here is perhaps straightforward. Most top quarterback prospects fell significantly in the draft. The NFL told us what they think of these quarterbacks, and that is very actionable advice. What is the dynasty fantasy football fallout from the quarterback developments in this year’s draft?
Pickett Stands Alone
Quarterback Kenny Pickett was selected by the Steelers 20th overall. Many believed they would draft a quarterback, but Malik Willis was the name most often seen placed there. Pickett was the choice in the end. I wrote a prospect profile on Pickett here on our website if you want to read more about what I like about him and I am very happy with what happened in the draft. The most pro-ready quarterback landed in the best quarterback landing spot. He can sit for a year if he must while Mitch Trubisky serves as a bridge, and will be surrounded by Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers added Georg Pickens on day 2, and if he develops well, he can be insurance against Johnson leaving after 2022 or Claypool after 2023.
12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: He climbs a bit to 1.06-ish range and is my only round 1 QB. If you don’t “need” Pickett and he’s on the board when you’re on the clock, I suggest exploring trading down with a team more interested and acquiring more draft capital.
Further fallout: This selection helps Claypool’s value, which had been dipping recently. it is also good news for all other Pittsburgh weapons.
Willis, Ridder, and the rest of the gang
The NFL told us how they view the quarterback class, including Willis, by not drafting any of them between Pickett at 20th and Ridder at 74th.
If you listened to the dynasty podcasts I do or happened to see one of my tweets about it, you would maybe not be so surprised consensus QB1 Malik Willis fell to the third round, 86th overall, where he was picked by the Titans. Chances are, though, you were surprised. Ryan Tannehill’s contract has an out after 2022, though it appears to make more financial sense for the team to keep him through the 2023 season when his contract ends. So the path is there for Willis to be a start soon, though he must fix a lot of his game.
12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: This one is tricky. I’ve already seen a believer pick Willis at 1.06, and saw him drop to the early third in another draft. The answer might be somewhere in between. The superflex format may push him up higher than you would like, so if you like him as a prospect and think the landing spot is good, be prepared to use a mid-2nd to get him. If you see quarterback as a significant need on your team, you might want to move up to the early 2nd to make sure you get your guy. In any case, be prepared to wait for him to see the field.
Further fallout: This selection may accelerate your timeline to trade Tannehill if you have him. There is no discernible impact on other Titans’ weapons. Derrick Henry will likely be gone by the time Willis is a starter, and we won’t know its effect on round 1 pick Treylon Burks until we see where he is at in his development if and when Willis is ready.
Desmond Ridder was said to be climbing up draft boards in the NFL and dynasty community as the draft drew closer. I was never a fan of him as a player, but athleticism will get you a long way, as will the intangibles Ridder possessed. Nevertheless, his draft stock wasn’t what many predicted or hoped, and he. He lands with the Falcons, who have bridge quarterback Marcus Mariota starting at the moment. When he eventually takes over (we assume), he will have Kyle Pitts and 2022 rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and plenty of reason to run and pass – especially if the Falcons
12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: See Malik Willis
Further fallout: Ridder’s selection accelerates your sell timeline on Mariota. If he does become a starting caliber QB, that would provide some certainty for Pitts and other pass catchers.
Matt Corral and Sam Howell, the remaining consensus top 5 quarterbacks – who were both discussed as possible late first/early second-round picks – fell as well, even further to the Carolina at the 94th (late third) and Washington at the 144th (early fifth) overall picks, respectively.
Corral has a chance to compete for the starting role against Sam Darnold (UFA after this year, by the way), whereas Howell will sit and learn behind Carson Wentz, who has a zero dead cap out in his contract after this upcoming season. corral’s offensive line still needs work and several weapons have out sin their contracts after 2022 and 2023, so not much reason for optimism there. Howell might lose Terry McLaurin after this season but will have Antonio Gibson through 2023 and 2022 rookies Jahan Dotson and Brian Robinson on board. A 2023 rookie quarterback is always a possibility, but that remains to be seen.
12 team superflex tight end premium rookie draft: I’ve seen draft spots for these two players vary widely, but Corral consistently goes ahead of Howell. The pressure of a superflex would get me to spend a late second on Corral, but I might be more interested in the value of Howell in the third, given his better oath to success.
Further fallout: There is not much we can say with certainty given the wide range of outcomes as far as role and playing time for Corral and Howell, and whether or not their teams take a quarterback in 2023. . We do know that their draft capital suggests they will not be granted the patience a first-round quarterback would, so it is important that each make the most of the first opportunities they get. Should they become starters, their weapons almost assuredly get an upgrade over their current quarterback.